000
FXUS65 KBOU 201038
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
338 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...RECORD WARMTH LIKELY ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA
TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 2-5C FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PUSH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
YESTERDAY BUT THEY WILL TURN WESTERLY. THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
ALSO HELP WARM THINGS UP. THE RECORD HIGH OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 2005
WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. THIS ALONG WITH WEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AS THEY
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.LONG TERM...START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS OBSERVED TODAY. AN ABNORMALLY STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE UP
THRU 300MBS AND CENTERED ALONG THE WEST SLOPE OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL
COMBINE WITH MODEST W-NWLY SFC-700MB FLOW TO PRODUCE VERY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AND
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE THE
DAY BEFORE BECAUSE OF LIGHTER DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. FIREWEATHER-WISE...
COULD SEE DAYTIME RHS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE TEENS ON THE PLAINS. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SFC/BNDRY LAYER WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS
NECESSARY FOR ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL HAVE TO RE-ASSESS THE NEED FOR
SUCH A WATCH WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA SINCE FUELS REMAIN VERY
DRY.
BY THURSDAY...00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENING/FLATTENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY E-SEWRD ACROSS
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA FCST
TO START OUT DRY AND MILD. AS THE DAY GOES ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING ABOVE 500MB SHOULD SEE
A CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS LAYER FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...HENCE
ANOTHER REASON FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SNOW UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN I SEE CLOUD BASES LOWERING ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. EVEN THEN SNOW CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW AT THAT TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BY NIGHTFALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE
UPPER REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ADVECTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
ALSO SEE SEVERAL DEGS OF COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF SERN WY
AND WRN NE AND ACROSS NERN CO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEE
WEAK POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY...JUST ENOUGH TO
NEARLY SATURATE LOWER LAYERS AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH HAVE RAISED POPS SOME IN
THE FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND WEAK QG
ASCENT PRODUCED BY PASSING TROUGH.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...ESSENTIALLY MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY TEMPS AND SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS STAYING UNDER 20 KNOTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
MEIER/BAKER
000
FXUS65 KBOU 192125
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
225 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES NUDGES
AGAINST THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH AND CREATING AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL STAY IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES...KEEPING LOWS 10 BELOW TO 10
ABOVE ZERO. THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE STATE IS EXPECT TO WARM
TOMORROW...ALLOWING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD IS 70F DEGREES FOR DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TOMORROW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS THE UPPER RIDGE HELPS TO TRAP IN THE COLDER AIR.
.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT...AND ONLY VERY SHALLOW MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE RECORD FOR
DENVER IS 70F SET BACK IN 1950.
BY THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT COOLING NOTED AND CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN COOLING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER PEAK HEATING SO BUMPED UP HIGHS THURSDAY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
LOOKS LIKE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SO WILL TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
ATTEMPT TO SCOUR BACK OUT OF THE PLAINS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NWLY WINDS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG...THEN RETURN BACK TO DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO UNTIL 5 PM MST TODAY...ZONES
238..242>251.
$$
KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH
000
FXUS65 KBOU 191033
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
330 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ASIDE FM A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER STEADY STATE WITH
PERSISTENT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AND EVNG. COLD AMS WL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES SO WL
STICK TO TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. TO START OFF THIS PERIOD TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOST OF THE WARM AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING THURSDAY KEEPING READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW POPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.
FOR SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL INDUCE A RIDGE AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS PATTERN. MODELS DISAGREE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF WANTS TO LIFT IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE
GFS DIGS IT SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW POPS FOR THIS PATTERN
UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SWLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND SWITCH TO NWLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG...THEN RETURN
BACK TO DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
COOPER/MEIER
000
FXUS65 KBOU 182155
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
RESULTING IN A STRONG N-NW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE HIGH WIND AND FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL THRU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER HI WIND CRITERIA WITH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 30-45KT RANGE OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY AFTN SO AGAIN NO WIND HILITES NEEDED. AS
FOR THE HI FIRE DANGER THREAT...THE WINDS ARE WITHIN CRITERIA THIS
AFTN AND WILL BE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...BUT MIN RH LEVELS ARE
BORDERLINE...AROUND 15%. GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DON`T SEE A NEED TO
HILITE FIRE DANGER WHICH IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT "ORDINARY".
IN CONTRAST...HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED IN THE
COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS...AND DON`T SEE THIS CONDITON CHANGING
ANYTIME SOON. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN MTN VALLEYS FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/AM PERIODS ALONG WITH THE SUB ZERO TEMPS AT NIGHT WITH ONLY
MODERATE DAY TIME RECOVERY.
.LONG TERM...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LARGE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET UP WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AND
THE AIRMASS DRY. HIGHS THROUGH OUT THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CO/KS
STATE LINE IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY OVER CALIFORNIA AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES FLATTENS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS A PUSH FROM THE NORTH BRINGS
COOLER AIR. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. THE TWO AGREEING MODELS START TO
DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE GFS STILL MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH IS NOT PREFERRED WITH HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS SLOWED ITS SOLUTION FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION. THEREFORE WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR TIMING...WITH A LITTLE HEAVIER
EMPHASIS ON THE EC FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH ITS SURFACE FLOW. WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW THURSDAY MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS INCREASING TO A CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. WILL
KEEP THESE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IT LOOKS TO BE A ZONAL
FLOW HEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...LONGMONT ANTICYLONE TRYING TO GET GEARED UP AGAIN AS
WINDS COMING AROUND NORTHERLY AT DEN WITH LIGHTER E-NE WINDS AT
APA/BJC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND BECOME TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE A SIMILAR SET UP WITH THE WINDS
MONDAY AFTN AS WELL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN
000
FXUS65 KBOU 181020
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL STRETCH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CO.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WL CHANGE VERY LITTLE TNGT. THE THEME FOR THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND STABLE.
.LONG TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. MONDAY AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SET UP WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE UNDER
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THROUGH OUT THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD
TOP 60 MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOL AS A PUSH FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS COOLER AIR. STILL A LOT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. FEEL THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
WAS IN PLACE...LIKE THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE OF THE SHORT
WAVE THE ECMWF SHOWS. THE ECWMF HAS THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
FOR THE NORTHERLY PUSH. THE CURRENT LOW POP FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS GOOD BECAUSE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL EVOLVE AFTER THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NWLY BY MIDDAY...BECOMING SWLY AGAIN
BY THIS EVNG.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
COOPER/MEIER
000
FXUS65 KBOU 172146
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH MODERATE N-NW FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MTNS. SOME OF THE
STRONG WINDS HAVE SURFACED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ENHANCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL MIXING OCCURRING. FURTHER WEST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
INDUCED A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE THIS AFTN WITH NERLY WINDS OVER THE
DENVER AREA. COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN MTN VALLEYS AND ONCE AGAIN
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD AND CONTINUED THE LATE NIGHT/AM
PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED FROM THE RIDGE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
PLAINS IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST STARTING
MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH ONTO THE
WEST COAST SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS THURSDAY
ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
POSITION AND STRENGTH AND SPEED...CAUSING MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COMPARING THESE MODELS SHOW THAT THE OUTLIER IS
THE GFS...WITH A STRONGER AND FASTER SOLUTION. THEREFORE FOLLOWED A
COMBINATION OF THE ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL. THE
QUESTION IS WILL ANY PRECIPITATION FALL. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS...IT WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...NERLY SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL TRENDS THIS
EVENING WITH S-SW SFC WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT UNDER 15KT. MAY SEE
A SIMILAR WIND PATTERN SUN AFTN OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH A LONGMONT
ANTICYCLONE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE-E AT DEN/APA AND E-SE OVER BJC.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN
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