000
FXUS61 KBGM 201603
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1101 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. A BRIEF
RETURN OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AS OF 1100 AM...SATL AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
PUSH OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SEEMS TO BE RETRACTING NOW
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE...AND FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE PULLED BACK ON SKY COVER AND
SNOW ACTIVITY TO JUST FLURRIES...WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER
THE REGION. THIS NOW SHOULD EASILY HELP TEMPS TO REACH POTENTIAL OF
UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...BUT EXPECT SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
FLOW RMNG FROM 310-320 DEGREES. VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUM/S
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS THE REGION.
HV INCRSD SKY CVR A TAD IN FINGER LKS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
TIER. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OUTSIDE AREAS.
INITIALLY LOADED IN MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND TWEAKED NUMBERS UP
IN AREAS WHERE CLDS WILL RMN AND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL SEE CLR SKIES AND
STILL HV FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS FM NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH 15 BELOW BY WED MRNG
WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. CUD SEE WIND CHILLS EVEN
COLDER IF TEMPS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLD CVR.
THESE AREAS MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT DO NOT HV A REAL GOOD
FEELING REGARDING CLDS AT THIS TIME TO HOIST ONE THIS EARLY ON.
NEXT WK TROF/WV MAY SPREAD VRY LGT SNOW INTO WRN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF INDICATES BEST FRCG WITH THIS WILL GO TO OUR
NORTH WITH AREA ON TAIL END OF WEAKENING LOPRES AS HIPRES RMNS
CRESTED ACRS THE REGION. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 30% FOR WRN AND
NRN SXNS.
FLOW WILL RMN OUT OF THE SW THRU END OF THE SHORT. MAX TEMPS FOR
WED EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TUESDAY VALUES IN THE TEENS/L
20S. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR -10C
AND EVEN HIGHER DRG THE DAY. PLAN ON BUMPING OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE
ON WED NGT WITH A VRY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS DRG NIGHTTIME
HRS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ON LEEWARD SIDE OF ROCKIES WED
NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN OVR MIDWEST ON THUR/THUR NIGHT PER ECMWF. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AFTN MAXES ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT ABV FZG IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WUD BE THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SHORTLY AFT CHRISTMAS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. DO NOT PLAN
ANY CHGS TO FCST FOR THUR/THUR NIGHT AS CHC SNOW SHOWERS RMN
POSSIBLE AHD OF NEXT WK BNDRY PROGGED BY EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH DEEP UL TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAR AWAW OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROF
BASE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO
NORMAL MID WINTER LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS COMING IN MUCH LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO
FAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIT MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST, WHEREAS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE MORE SPOTTY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 8 TO 12
KTS.
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE LAKE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201448
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
947 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE AREAS
WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW SPOTS IMMEDIATELY DOWN WIND
OF THE FINGER LAKES COULD RECEIVE A FEW INCHES. A BRIEF RETURN OF
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS INCREASED ENOUGH...WITH
LIMITED SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE CLASSIC 330-350 DEGREE BROAD UPSLOPE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME OVER CNTRL NY. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
REKINDLE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY...BUT PROVIDE ONLY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THERE MAY BE BRIEF EPISODES OF FINGER LAKE
BANDS FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED ACCUMS OVER TOMPKINS/TIOGA AND NRN
BROOME. HAVE ALTERED FCST A BIT FOR SEMANTICS...CALLING FOR OCNL
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN UPSTATE NY...WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER NRN
PA.
TEMPS PLUMMETED LAST NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES.
THE REBOUND THUS FAR SEEMS GOOD EVEN AS THE LAKE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER...SO
UPR TEENS/LOW 20S SHOULD WORK TODAY FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...BUT EXPECT SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
FLOW RMNG FROM 310-320 DEGREES. VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUM/S
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS THE REGION.
HV INCRSD SKY CVR A TAD IN FINGER LKS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
TIER. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OUTSIDE AREAS.
INITIALLY LOADED IN MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND TWEAKED NUMBERS UP
IN AREAS WHERE CLDS WILL RMN AND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL SEE CLR SKIES AND
STILL HV FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS FM NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH 15 BELOW BY WED MRNG
WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. CUD SEE WIND CHILLS EVEN
COLDER IF TEMPS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLD CVR.
THESE AREAS MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT DO NOT HV A REAL GOOD
FEELING REGARDING CLDS AT THIS TIME TO HOIST ONE THIS EARLY ON.
NEXT WK TROF/WV MAY SPREAD VRY LGT SNOW INTO WRN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF INDICATES BEST FRCG WITH THIS WILL GO TO OUR
NORTH WITH AREA ON TAIL END OF WEAKENING LOPRES AS HIPRES RMNS
CRESTED ACRS THE REGION. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 30% FOR WRN AND
NRN SXNS.
FLOW WILL RMN OUT OF THE SW THRU END OF THE SHORT. MAX TEMPS FOR
WED EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TUESDAY VALUES IN THE TEENS/L
20S. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR -10C
AND EVEN HIGHER DRG THE DAY. PLAN ON BUMPING OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE
ON WED NGT WITH A VRY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS DRG NIGHTTIME
HRS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ON LEEWARD SIDE OF ROCKIES WED
NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN OVR MIDWEST ON THUR/THUR NIGHT PER ECMWF. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AFTN MAXES ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT ABV FZG IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WUD BE THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SHORTLY AFT CHRISTMAS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. DO NOT PLAN
ANY CHGS TO FCST FOR THUR/THUR NIGHT AS CHC SNOW SHOWERS RMN
POSSIBLE AHD OF NEXT WK BNDRY PROGGED BY EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH DEEP UL TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAR AWAW OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROF
BASE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO
NORMAL MID WINTER LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS COMING IN MUCH LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO
FAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIT MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST, WHEREAS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE MORE SPOTTY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 8 TO 12
KTS.
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE LAKE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201114
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
614 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FINGER LAKES
TODAY...WIND DOWN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A BRIEF RETURN OF COLD AIR COMBINED
WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWA RMNS IN AREA OF WK FLOW TONIGHT AS LOPRES HAS WEAKENED AND H5
TROF/LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KTYX VWP SHOWS FLOW
IS PRETTY MUCH ALL OVR THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AT THE
SFC AND GNRLY NORTH FLOW ARND 5KTS ALOFT.
FLOW HAS BCM ORGANIZED ENUF OUT OF THE NW TO HV RESULTED IN LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG. HWVR WITH ONLY
ARND 5KTS PCPN IS NOT EXTENDING VRY FAR INLAND AT THE MOMENT. HWVR
EXPECT WINDS TO INCRS THIS MRNG AND ALLOW SNOW TO CARRY A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND TWD DAYBREAK.
BY THIS TIME...WK SFC BNDRY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK ONTARIO WILL
HV MVD THRU. FLOW BHND BNDRY WILL VEER ARND TO THE NW FROM 320-330
DEGREES RESULTING IN MULTIBANDS DUE TO FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT. H8
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -16F WITH ENUF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG ENUF TO BRING HICHC POPS DOWN INTO THE NRN
TIER PA DRG THE AFTN. INVERSION BCMS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BY
MID-MRNG PER BUFKIT PROFILES FOR HALFWAY DECENT ACCUM/S. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...HWVR WINDS MAY BACK JUST
ENUF TO SETTLE OUT AT MORE OF A 310 FLOW TO KEEP ANY ONE LOCATION
FM RECEIVING MORE THAN 3 INCHES. BY LATE AFTN (22Z OR SO) DRIER
AIR WILL BE WORKING IN ALOFT AND WILL ALSO KEEP SIGNIFICANT LK
SNOWS FM DVLPNG.
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE TRICKY AS SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY OVRNGT
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. WHERE SKIES HV CLRD THE LONGEST...TEMPS HV
ALREADY DROPPED BLO ZERO. CLD CVR HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z
WILL NOT DO MUCH TO IMPEDE TEMP DROP OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS SO
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIERS WILL BE STARTING OFF SOME 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN OTHERS. HV INITIALLY BLENDED IN RUC13 GUIDANCE
WITH CURRENT NUMBERS TO GET TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO REALITY AS IT
IS DOING A GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON COLD TEMPS. WHILE THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE OFF TO A COLD START...THEY WILL ALSO NOT SEE AS
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE THIS AFTN AS CLDS MV IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE HV UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A TAD IN THESE AREAS
FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...BUT EXPECT SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
FLOW RMNG FROM 310-320 DEGREES. VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUM/S
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS THE REGION.
HV INCRSD SKY CVR A TAD IN FINGER LKS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
TIER. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OUTSIDE AREAS.
INITIALLY LOADED IN MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND TWEAKED NUMBERS UP
IN AREAS WHERE CLDS WILL RMN AND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL SEE CLR SKIES AND
STILL HV FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS FM NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH 15 BELOW BY WED MRNG
WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. CUD SEE WIND CHILLS EVEN
COLDER IF TEMPS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLD CVR.
THESE AREAS MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT DO NOT HV A REAL GOOD
FEELING REGARDING CLDS AT THIS TIME TO HOIST ONE THIS EARLY ON.
NEXT WK TROF/WV MAY SPREAD VRY LGT SNOW INTO WRN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF INDICATES BEST FRCG WITH THIS WILL GO TO OUR
NORTH WITH AREA ON TAIL END OF WEAKENING LOPRES AS HIPRES RMNS
CRESTED ACRS THE REGION. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 30% FOR WRN AND
NRN SXNS.
FLOW WILL RMN OUT OF THE SW THRU END OF THE SHORT. MAX TEMPS FOR
WED EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TUESDAY VALUES IN THE TEENS/L
20S. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR -10C
AND EVEN HIGHER DRG THE DAY. PLAN ON BUMPING OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE
ON WED NGT WITH A VRY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS DRG NIGHTTIME
HRS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ON LEEWARD SIDE OF ROCKIES WED
NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN OVR MIDWEST ON THUR/THUR NIGHT PER ECMWF. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AFTN MAXES ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT ABV FZG IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WUD BE THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SHORTLY AFT CHRISTMAS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. DO NOT PLAN
ANY CHGS TO FCST FOR THUR/THUR NIGHT AS CHC SNOW SHOWERS RMN
POSSIBLE AHD OF NEXT WK BNDRY PROGGED BY EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH DEEP UL TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAR AWAW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROF BASE WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO
NORMAL MID WINTER LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS COMING IN MUCH LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO
FAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIT MOST OF THE NY TERMINALS WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST, WHEREAS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE MORE SPOTTY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 8 TO 12 KTS.
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE LAKE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200706
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FINGER LAKES
TODAY...WIND DOWN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A BRIEF RETURN OF COLD AIR COMBINED
WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CWA RMNS IN AREA OF WK FLOW TONIGHT AS LOPRES HAS WEAKENED AND H5
TROF/LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KTYX VWP SHOWS FLOW
IS PRETTY MUCH ALL OVR THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AT THE
SFC AND GNRLY NORTH FLOW ARND 5KTS ALOFT.
FLOW HAS BCM ORGANIZED ENUF OUT OF THE NW TO HV RESULTED IN LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG. HWVR WITH ONLY
ARND 5KTS PCPN IS NOT EXTENDING VRY FAR INLAND AT THE MOMENT. HWVR
EXPECT WINDS TO INCRS THIS MRNG AND ALLOW SNOW TO CARRY A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND TWD DAYBREAK.
BY THIS TIME...WK SFC BNDRY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK ONTARIO WILL
HV MVD THRU. FLOW BHND BNDRY WILL VEER ARND TO THE NW FROM 320-330
DEGREES RESULTING IN MULTIBANDS DUE TO FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT. H8
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -16F WITH ENUF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG ENUF TO BRING HICHC POPS DOWN INTO THE NRN
TIER PA DRG THE AFTN. INVERSION BCMS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BY
MID-MRNG PER BUFKIT PROFILES FOR HALFWAY DECENT ACCUM/S. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...HWVR WINDS MAY BACK JUST
ENUF TO SETTLE OUT AT MORE OF A 310 FLOW TO KEEP ANY ONE LOCATION
FM RECEIVING MORE THAN 3 INCHES. BY LATE AFTN (22Z OR SO) DRIER
AIR WILL BE WORKING IN ALOFT AND WILL ALSO KEEP SIGNIFICANT LK
SNOWS FM DVLPNG.
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE TRICKY AS SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY OVRNGT
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. WHERE SKIES HV CLRD THE LONGEST...TEMPS HV
ALREADY DROPPED BLO ZERO. CLD CVR HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z
WILL NOT DO MUCH TO IMPEDE TEMP DROP OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS SO
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIERS WILL BE STARTING OFF SOME 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN OTHERS. HV INITIALLY BLENDED IN RUC13 GUIDANCE
WITH CURRENT NUMBERS TO GET TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO REALITY AS IT
IS DOING A GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON COLD TEMPS. WHILE THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE OFF TO A COLD START...THEY WILL ALSO NOT SEE AS
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE THIS AFTN AS CLDS MV IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE HV UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A TAD IN THESE AREAS
FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...BUT EXPECT SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
FLOW RMNG FROM 310-320 DEGREES. VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUM/S
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS THE REGION.
HV INCRSD SKY CVR A TAD IN FINGER LKS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
TIER. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OUTSIDE AREAS.
INITIALLY LOADED IN MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND TWEAKED NUMBERS UP
IN AREAS WHERE CLDS WILL RMN AND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL SEE CLR SKIES AND
STILL HV FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS FM NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH 15 BELOW BY WED MRNG
WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. CUD SEE WIND CHILLS EVEN
COLDER IF TEMPS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLD CVR.
THESE AREAS MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT DO NOT HV A REAL GOOD
FEELING REGARDING CLDS AT THIS TIME TO HOIST ONE THIS EARLY ON.
NEXT WK TROF/WV MAY SPREAD VRY LGT SNOW INTO WRN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF INDICATES BEST FRCG WITH THIS WILL GO TO OUR
NORTH WITH AREA ON TAIL END OF WEAKENING LOPRES AS HIPRES RMNS
CRESTED ACRS THE REGION. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 30% FOR WRN AND
NRN SXNS.
FLOW WILL RMN OUT OF THE SW THRU END OF THE SHORT. MAX TEMPS FOR
WED EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TUESDAY VALUES IN THE TEENS/L
20S. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR -10C
AND EVEN HIGHER DRG THE DAY. PLAN ON BUMPING OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE
ON WED NGT WITH A VRY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS DRG NIGHTTIME
HRS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ON LEEWARD SIDE OF ROCKIES WED
NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN OVR MIDWEST ON THUR/THUR NIGHT PER ECMWF. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AFTN MAXES ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT ABV FZG IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WUD BE THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SHORTLY AFT CHRISTMAS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. DO NOT PLAN
ANY CHGS TO FCST FOR THUR/THUR NIGHT AS CHC SNOW SHOWERS RMN
POSSIBLE AHD OF NEXT WK BNDRY PROGGED BY EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH DEEP UL TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAR AWAW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROF BASE WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO
NORMAL MID WINTER LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NY
TERMINALS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR IN SQUALLS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TODAY, BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 2500-3500
FT CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 8-12 KTS.
TUE NIGHT..VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KITH/KBGM.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200656
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FINGER LAKES
TODAY...WIND DOWN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A BRIEF RETURN OF COLD AIR COMBINED
WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CWA RMNS IN AREA OF WK FLOW TONIGHT AS LOPRES HAS WEAKENED AND H5
TROF/LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KTYX VWP SHOWS FLOW
IS PRETTY MUCH ALL OVR THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AT THE
SFC AND GNRLY NORTH FLOW ARND 5KTS ALOFT.
FLOW HAS BCM ORGANIZED ENUF OUT OF THE NW TO HV RESULTED IN LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG. HWVR WITH ONLY
ARND 5KTS PCPN IS NOT EXTENDING VRY FAR INLAND AT THE MOMENT. HWVR
EXPECT WINDS TO INCRS THIS MRNG AND ALLOW SNOW TO CARRY A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND TWD DAYBREAK.
BY THIS TIME...WK SFC BNDRY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK ONTARIO WILL
HV MVD THRU. FLOW BHND BNDRY WILL VEER ARND TO THE NW FROM 320-330
DEGREES RESULTING IN MULTIBANDS DUE TO FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT. H8
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -16F WITH ENUF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG ENUF TO BRING HICHC POPS DOWN INTO THE NRN
TIER PA DRG THE AFTN. INVERSION BCMS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BY
MID-MRNG PER BUFKIT PROFILES FOR HALFWAY DECENT ACCUM/S. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...HWVR WINDS MAY BACK JUST
ENUF TO SETTLE OUT AT MORE OF A 310 FLOW TO KEEP ANY ONE LOCATION
FM RECEIVING MORE THAN 3 INCHES. BY LATE AFTN (22Z OR SO) DRIER
AIR WILL BE WORKING IN ALOFT AND WILL ALSO KEEP SIGNIFICANT LK
SNOWS FM DVLPNG.
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE TRICKY AS SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY OVRNGT
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. WHERE SKIES HV CLRD THE LONGEST...TEMPS HV
ALREADY DROPPED BLO ZERO. CLD CVR HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z
WILL NOT DO MUCH TO IMPEDE TEMP DROP OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS SO
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIERS WILL BE STARTING OFF SOME 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN OTHERS. HV INITIALLY BLENDED IN RUC13 GUIDANCE
WITH CURRENT NUMBERS TO GET TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO REALITY AS IT
IS DOING A GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON COLD TEMPS. WHILE THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE OFF TO A COLD START...THEY WILL ALSO NOT SEE AS
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE THIS AFTN AS CLDS MV IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE HV UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A TAD IN THESE AREAS
FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...BUT EXPECT SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
FLOW RMNG FROM 310-320 DEGREES. VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUM/S
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS THE REGION.
HV INCRSD SKY CVR A TAD IN FINGER LKS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
TIER. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OUTSIDE AREAS.
INITIALLY LOADED IN MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND TWEAKED NUMBERS UP
IN AREAS WHERE CLDS WILL RMN AND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL SEE CLR SKIES AND
STILL HV FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS FM NRN ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO SEE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH 15 BELOW BY WED MRNG
WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. CUD SEE WIND CHILLS EVEN
COLDER IF TEMPS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLD CVR.
THESE AREAS MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT DO NOT HV A REAL GOOD
FEELING REGARDING CLDS AT THIS TIME TO HOIST ONE THIS EARLY ON.
NEXT WK TROF/WV MAY SPREAD VRY LGT SNOW INTO WRN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF INDICATES BEST FRCG WITH THIS WILL GO TO OUR
NORTH WITH AREA ON TAIL END OF WEAKENING LOPRES AS HIPRES RMNS
CRESTED ACRS THE REGION. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 30% FOR WRN AND
NRN SXNS.
FLOW WILL RMN OUT OF THE SW THRU END OF THE SHORT. MAX TEMPS FOR
WED EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TUESDAY VALUES IN THE TEENS/L
20S. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR -10C
AND EVEN HIGHER DRG THE DAY. PLAN ON BUMPING OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE
ON WED NGT WITH A VRY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS DRG NIGHTTIME
HRS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ON LEEWARD SIDE OF ROCKIES WED
NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN OVR MIDWEST ON THUR/THUR NIGHT PER ECMWF. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AFTN MAXES ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT ABV FZG IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WUD BE THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SHORTLY AFT CHRISTMAS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. DO NOT PLAN
ANY CHGS TO FCST FOR THUR/THUR NIGHT AS CHC SNOW SHOWERS RMN
POSSIBLE AHD OF NEXT WK BNDRY PROGGED BY EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET PD AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS FCST A RETREAT
OF THE DEEP ERN TROF AND A MORE ZONAL PTRN. STILL...THERE SHD
REMAIN A BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROF IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR NEAR OR
SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMP REGIME. VARIOUS SHRT WVS ZIP THRU ON THE FAST
FLOW AND OCNLY TAP THE VERY COLD AIR THAT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...AND THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GRAB SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND DVLP SCT SNOW SHWRS.
SO...FCST DETAILS ARE OF CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PD...WITH NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW VCNTY WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NRN NYS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS KRME/KSYR
TERMINALS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
REST OF TERMINALS VFR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY. SNOW SHOWERS AT
KELM/KITH/KBGM COULD LOWER VSBYS INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY BTW 09Z-
13Z. ON TUESDAY, NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KITH/KBGM DUE TO VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS. AT KELM/KAVP
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR.
TUE NIGHT..VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KITH/KBGM.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200005
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
705 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLDER NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAY DROP WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE AIR THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL DRAW ABOUT -15C
850 MB AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY
FOR LAKE INDUCED SNOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING LLVL UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC THERMAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND SHEAR RATHER STRONG FOR GOOD ORGANIZATION
INITIALLY. EXPECTING TO SEE EXISTING SNOW BAND OFF EAST END OF LAKE
RETRACT...THEN REFORM AND EXTEND INTO ONEIDA AND MADISON COUNTIES...NRN
ONONDAGA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO A BROAD PLUME
OF SNOW INTO THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS TOWARD MORNING
AS WIND FLOW BECOMES LESS SHEARED AND ACTUALLY STRONGER PER MODEL GUIDANCE.
SO WE HAVE SOME POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS TO MAKE THIS LES FCST
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW PLUMES OFFSETTING
THE VRY FAVORABLE FLUFF FACTOR...WE THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY
AROUND 4 IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SET UP OF ANY PERSISTENT SMALL
BANDS.
TEMPS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY WITH LARGE HOLE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER CNTRL NY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR RAPID COOLING. OVERALL...THINK
THE MAV MOS WILL BE REASONABLE MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS...ESPLY AS MORE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN.
AS A SIDE NOTE...WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING THRU MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO LACKAWANNA/WYOMING VALLEY AREAS
AND A FEW FLURRIES EARLY...BUT MAINLY IT IS A NON-FACTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON THIS PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
FLATTENS OUT BY MIDWEEK. WE JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WEAK NUISANCE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT AND A REGENERATION OF
ARCTIC COLD.
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE A BIT ON TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPLY ON A NNWLY 330-350 ORIENTATION WHICH COULD GET
SOME NARROW...BUT LOCALLY POTENT FINGER LAKE SNOW BANDS INTO ACTION
AS THE LAKE ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AROUND. WILL PLAY
THIS WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMPKINS...
TIOGA...CORTLAND AND BROOME COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY 1 TO 3+ INCHES
MORE OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...THE
GENERAL NWLY LAKE PLUME OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO
WDSPRD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF CNY
INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PA...WITH FLUFFY ACCUMS UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. JUST FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH IN PA.
COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WE DO
STAND THE RISK FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING LATE TUES
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER S/WV TROF DIVES OUT OF ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS MODEL WITH NAM LOOKING A
BIT TOO WEAK PER WV DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE OVER THE YUKON. WEAK
SFC RIDGING EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY ACTUALY PROVIDE A MAINLY PRECIP
FREE MORNING...THEN THIS WAVE BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
N CNTRL NY. GOING ABOVE THE MOS POP GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UL FLOW THEN REALLY FLATTENS FOR THURSDAY WITH A MILDER SURGE OF
AIR INTO THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW. STILL HINTS OF SOME WEAK WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...SO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WHOLE TIME
FRAME AFTER TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OR WITH JUST A FEW
FLAKES IN THE AIR. GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHOOT TEMPS INTO THE LOW 30S
ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE OVER THE WELL
ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK...SO HAVE TRIMMED GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET PD AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS FCST A RETREAT
OF THE DEEP ERN TROF AND A MORE ZONAL PTRN. STILL...THERE SHD
REMAIN A BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROF IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR NEAR OR
SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMP REGIME. VARIOUS SHRT WVS ZIP THRU ON THE FAST
FLOW AND OCNLY TAP THE VERY COLD AIR THAT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...AND THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GRAB SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND DVLP SCT SNOW SHWRS.
SO...FCST DETAILS ARE OF CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PD...WITH NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW VCNTY WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NRN NYS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS KRME/KSYR
TERMINALS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
REST OF TERMINALS VFR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY. SNOW SHOWERS AT
KELM/KITH/KBGM COULD LOWER VSBYS INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY BTW 09Z-
13Z. ON TUESDAY, NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KITH/KBGM DUE TO VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS. AT KELM/KAVP
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR.
TUE NIGHT..VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KITH/KBGM.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 192043
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLDER NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAY DROP WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE AIR THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL DRAW ABOUT -15C
850 MB AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY
FOR LAKE INDUCED SNOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING LLVL UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC THERMAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND SHEAR RATHER STRONG FOR GOOD ORGANIZATION
INITIALLY. EXPECTING TO SEE EXISTING SNOW BAND OFF EAST END OF LAKE
RETRACT...THEN REFORM AND EXTEND INTO ONEIDA AND MADISON COUNTIES...NRN
ONONDAGA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO A BROAD PLUME
OF SNOW INTO THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS TOWARD MORNING
AS WIND FLOW BECOMES LESS SHEARED AND ACTUALLY STRONGER PER MODEL GUIDANCE.
SO WE HAVE SOME POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS TO MAKE THIS LES FCST
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW PLUMES OFFSETTING
THE VRY FAVORABLE FLUFF FACTOR...WE THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY
AROUND 4 IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SET UP OF ANY PERSISTENT SMALL
BANDS.
TEMPS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY WITH LARGE HOLE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER CNTRL NY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR RAPID COOLING. OVERALL...THINK
THE MAV MOS WILL BE REASONABLE MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS...ESPLY AS MORE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN.
AS A SIDE NOTE...WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING THRU MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO LACKAWANNA/WYOMING VALLEY AREAS
AND A FEW FLURRIES EARLY...BUT MAINLY IT IS A NON-FACTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON THIS PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
FLATTENS OUT BY MIDWEEK. WE JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WEAK NUISANCE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT AND A REGENERATION OF
ARCTIC COLD.
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE A BIT ON TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPLY ON A NNWLY 330-350 ORIENTATION WHICH COULD GET
SOME NARROW...BUT LOCALLY POTENT FINGER LAKE SNOW BANDS INTO ACTION
AS THE LAKE ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AROUND. WILL PLAY
THIS WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMPKINS...
TIOGA...CORTLAND AND BROOME COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY 1 TO 3+ INCHES
MORE OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...THE
GENERAL NWLY LAKE PLUME OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO
WDSPRD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF CNY
INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PA...WITH FLUFFY ACCUMS UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. JUST FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH IN PA.
COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WE DO
STAND THE RISK FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING LATE TUES
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER S/WV TROF DIVES OUT OF ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS MODEL WITH NAM LOOKING A
BIT TOO WEAK PER WV DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE OVER THE YUKON. WEAK
SFC RIDGING EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY ACTUALY PROVIDE A MAINLY PRECIP
FREE MORNING...THEN THIS WAVE BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
N CNTRL NY. GOING ABOVE THE MOS POP GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UL FLOW THEN REALLY FLATTENS FOR THURSDAY WITH A MILDER SURGE OF
AIR INTO THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW. STILL HINTS OF SOME WEAK WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...SO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WHOLE TIME
FRAME AFTER TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OR WITH JUST A FEW
FLAKES IN THE AIR. GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHOOT TEMPS INTO THE LOW 30S
ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE OVER THE WELL
ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK...SO HAVE TRIMMED GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET PD AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS FCST A RETREAT
OF THE DEEP ERN TROF AND A MORE ZONAL PTRN. STILL...THERE SHD
REMAIN A BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROF IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR NEAR OR
SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMP REGIME. VARIOUS SHRT WVS ZIP THRU ON THE FAST
FLOW AND OCNLY TAP THE VERY COLD AIR THAT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...AND THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GRAB SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND DVLP SCT SNOW SHWRS.
SO...FCST DETAILS ARE OF CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PD...WITH NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR TROF IN PLACE WITH COLD AIR DOMINATES OUR WX THIS PD. OTR THAN
THE INHERENT INSTABILITY FROM THE TROF...WX MAKER IN THE WEAK FLOW
ARE THE LAKES. WEAK SYSTEM DROPS THRU LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE AND
DVLPS A MORE NLY FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE CRNT LES
ACTIVITY SOUTH...ACROSS SYR AND UCA...THEN DVLP A NLY FLOW REGIME AND
BRING SCT LES FROM ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE REGION
THRU THE SHRT TERM. IFR CONDS PSBL AT TIMES LATE TNGT AS THE
SINGLE BAND MOVES ACROSS SYR AND UCA...THEN SOME MVFR PSBL IN ITH
AND BGM AS THE NLY FLOW DVLPS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
SNOWS...TYPICALLY WLD SEE VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL BE LGT THIS AFTN
AND EVE...THEN BECOME NNW UP TO 10 KTS LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE.
TUE AFTN...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL
NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM WRN NY. CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND DISSIPATED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD FILL
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED...BUT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SPOTTY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPLY AS UL WAVE OVER WV THIS
MORNING ROTATES TO THE NORTHEAST. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED FOR
THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH...SO AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH NEW
DEVELOPMENT ASIDE FROM SCT ACTIVITY.
TEMPS COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO START...SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY...ESPLY WITH A LITTLE ADDED SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/WV OVR NRN MANITOBA DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND INDUCES
SFC LO DVLPMNT OVR SERN U.S. AS ECMWF HAS SHOWN CONSISTENTLY OVR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW BEING SUPPORTED WITH OTHER MED RANGE
MODELS THAT HV TRENDED THIS WAY...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO RMN FAR
ENUF OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON FA.
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THRU THE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOPRES HANGING BACK TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTN AND EVNG LEAVING NW FLOW TO FILTER INTO
CWA OVRNGT. FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT OVR THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WITH LITTLE CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUM/S IN ANY ONE LOCATION
DRG THIS TIME.
FLOW INITIALLY WILL START OUT FROM 280-290 DEGREES THIS EVNG BFR
SHIFTING RAPIDLY TO A MORE 320-330 FLOW AND WEAK MULTIBAND FINGER
LKS EVENT. EXPECT FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH N-NW FLOW EXPECTED. OVERALL EXPECTING A 2-4
INCH EVENT TUE/TUE NGT ACRS THE FINGER LKS.
SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ON WED EFFECTIVELY ENDING CHC
FOR LK SNOWS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING ANOTHER WK S/WV THRU ON
WED WITH CHC FOR LGT SNOW OVR WRN ZONES THRU END OF SHORT TERM
PD...JUST AS LK EFFECT BEGINS WINDING DOWN. HV NO CHOICE BUT TO
CARRY POPS ALL THE WAY THRU SHORT TERM FOR UPSTATE NY FOR SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.
REINFORCING SHOT OF CD AIR MVS THRU ON TUE WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BLO NORMAL AGAIN BY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET PD AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS FCST A RETREAT
OF THE DEEP ERN TROF AND A MORE ZONAL PTRN. STILL...THERE SHD
REMAIN A BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROF IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR NEAR OR
SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMP REGIME. VARIOUS SHRT WVS ZIP THRU ON THE FAST
FLOW AND OCNLY TAP THE VERY COLD AIR THAT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...AND THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GRAB SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND DVLP SCT SNOW SHWRS.
SO...FCST DETAILS ARE OF CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PD...WITH NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR TROF IN PLACE WITH COLD AIR DOMINATES OUR WX THIS PD. OTR THAN
THE INHERENT INSTABILITY FROM THE TROF...WX MAKER IN THE WEAK FLOW
ARE THE LAKES. WEAK SYSTEM DROPS THRU LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE AND
DVLPS A MORE NLY FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE CRNT LES
ACTIVITY SOUTH...ACROSS SYR AND UCA...THEN DVLP A NLY FLOW REGIME AND
BRING SCT LES FROM ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE REGION
THRU THE SHRT TERM. IFR CONDS PSBL AT TIMES LATE TNGT AS THE
SINGLE BAND MOVES ACROSS SYR AND UCA...THEN SOME MVFR PSBL IN ITH
AND BGM AS THE NLY FLOW DVLPS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
SNOWS...TYPICALLY WLD SEE VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL BE LGT THIS AFTN
AND EVE...THEN BECOME NNW UP TO 10 KTS LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE.
TUE AFTN...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL
NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
545 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UL TROF RMNS OVR THE ERN U.S. EARLY THIS MRNG WITH S/WV DROPPING
INTO MID-MS VLY AND ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE OVR NRN
MANITOBA. NEITHER WV SHUD HV MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON CWA.
HWVR...MODELS DO BRING LEAD S/WV ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN AND HV
INCRSD POPS A TAD TO ACCNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE PCPN OVR SRN PA DOWN ACRS APPALACHIANS
IS HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAY SEE THIS AREA FILL IN A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN.
IN THE MEANTIME...UL TROF/LOW WILL SIT OVR GREAT LKS TODAY LEADING
TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE COURSE OF THE DAY. FLOW
WILL GNRLY RMN OUT OF THE SW TODAY AHD OF LOPRES SO NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LK EFFECT TO BE DEALT WITH UNTIL LATER ON.
TEMPS WILL NOT CHG TOO MUCH FM WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS
AIRMASS RMNS SIMILAR. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE L/M 20S
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV OVR NRN MANITOBA DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND INDUCES SFC LO DVLPMNT OVR SERN U.S. AS ECMWF HAS
SHOWN CONSISTENTLY OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW BEING SUPPORTED
WITH OTHER MED RANGE MODELS THAT HV TRENDED THIS WAY...EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO RMN FAR ENUF OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON FA.
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THRU THE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOPRES HANGING BACK TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTN AND EVNG LEAVING NW FLOW TO FILTER INTO
CWA OVRNGT. FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT OVR THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WITH LITTLE CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUM/S IN ANY ONE LOCATION
DRG THIS TIME.
FLOW INITIALLY WILL START OUT FROM 280-290 DEGREES THIS EVNG BFR
SHIFTING RAPIDLY TO A MORE 320-330 FLOW AND WEAK MULTIBAND FINGER
LKS EVENT. EXPECT FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH N-NW FLOW EXPECTED. OVERALL EXPECTING A 2-4
INCH EVENT TUE/TUE NGT ACRS THE FINGER LKS.
SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ON WED EFFECTIVELY ENDING CHC
FOR LK SNOWS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING ANOTHER WK S/WV THRU ON
WED WITH CHC FOR LGT SNOW OVR WRN ZONES THRU END OF SHORT TERM
PD...JUST AS LK EFFECT BEGINS WINDING DOWN. HV NO CHOICE BUT TO
CARRY POPS ALL THE WAY THRU SHORT TERM FOR UPSTATE NY FOR SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.
REINFORCING SHOT OF CD AIR MVS THRU ON TUE WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BLO NORMAL AGAIN BY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAGUED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DICTATE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT IS PULLING EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG FORMING ABOVE THE SNOW PACK FROM SOUTHERN PA TOWARD THE
POCONOS AND LOWER CATSKILLS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO OUR
NORTH, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NY TERMINALS WITH BRIEF IFR PROBABLE.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190810
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
310 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UL TROF RMNS OVR THE ERN U.S. EARLY THIS MRNG WITH S/WV DROPPING
INTO MID-MS VLY AND ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE OVR NRN
MANITOBA. NEITHER WV SHUD HV MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON CWA.
HWVR...MODELS DO BRING LEAD S/WV ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN AND HV
INCRSD POPS A TAD TO ACCNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE PCPN OVR SRN PA DOWN ACRS APPALACHIANS
IS HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAY SEE THIS AREA FILL IN A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN.
IN THE MEANTIME...UL TROF/LOW WILL SIT OVR GREAT LKS TODAY LEADING
TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE COURSE OF THE DAY. FLOW
WILL GNRLY RMN OUT OF THE SW TODAY AHD OF LOPRES SO NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LK EFFECT TO BE DEALT WITH UNTIL LATER ON.
TEMPS WILL NOT CHG TOO MUCH FM WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS
AIRMASS RMNS SIMILAR. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE L/M 20S
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV OVR NRN MANITOBA DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND INDUCES SFC LO DVLPMNT OVR SERN U.S. AS ECMWF HAS
SHOWN CONSISTENTLY OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW BEING SUPPORTED
WITH OTHER MED RANGE MODELS THAT HV TRENDED THIS WAY...EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO RMN FAR ENUF OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON FA.
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THRU THE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOPRES HANGING BACK TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTN AND EVNG LEAVING NW FLOW TO FILTER INTO
CWA OVRNGT. FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT OVR THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WITH LITTLE CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUM/S IN ANY ONE LOCATION
DRG THIS TIME.
FLOW INITIALLY WILL START OUT FROM 280-290 DEGREES THIS EVNG BFR
SHIFTING RAPIDLY TO A MORE 320-330 FLOW AND WEAK MULTIBAND FINGER
LKS EVENT. EXPECT FINGER LKS ENHANCEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH N-NW FLOW EXPECTED. OVERALL EXPECTING A 2-4
INCH EVENT TUE/TUE NGT ACRS THE FINGER LKS.
SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ON WED EFFECTIVELY ENDING CHC
FOR LK SNOWS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING ANOTHER WK S/WV THRU ON
WED WITH CHC FOR LGT SNOW OVR WRN ZONES THRU END OF SHORT TERM
PD...JUST AS LK EFFECT BEGINS WINDING DOWN. HV NO CHOICE BUT TO
CARRY POPS ALL THE WAY THRU SHORT TERM FOR UPSTATE NY FOR SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.
REINFORCING SHOT OF CD AIR MVS THRU ON TUE WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BLO NORMAL AGAIN BY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAGUED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CNY/NEPA
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR OCCURRING IN SCT SHSN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF DAY MONDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MEANDERS TO THE EAST OVER UPSTATE NY. GENERALLY A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES AND PERIODS OF SHSN
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING.
LGT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SWLY 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 12Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL
NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JML/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190542
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1242 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN...PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY....WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONES. BETWEEN SHORT WAVES WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY SNOW AROUND THE EDGES. BATCH OF SNOW IN CENT PA AND
WRN NY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DEPICTED BY MODELS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXPECTED WHICH IS WHAT WE ALREADY HAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NEAR TERM. TWO MAIN
S/WV`S ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF...ONE OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE
OTHER DIVING SWD ACRS WI. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANY OFFSHORE DVLPMNT
ASSCD WITH THESE WAVES WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA...BUT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON SE ZONES AS THE RUC SUGGESTS POTNL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVNG THERE AS 300 MB JET LIFTS
NEWD. OTRW IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL BE DEALING WITH -SHSN DUE TO THE
UPR TROF AND ASSCD SFC FEATURES. WEAK SFC TROF WILL MOV EWD ACRS
THE FCST AREA TNGT. WE RETAINED CAT/LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVNG HRS.
XPCT ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1 INCH RNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REALLY NOT MUCH CHG INTO TUES AS UPR TROF PERSISTS OVER THE RGN.
LOW LVL FLOW MAY ALIGN FROM THE W FOR A BRIEF PD LATER MON NGT
ALLOWING LES BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA FOR A WHILE...BUT CRNT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE TEMPORARY AND PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRSV W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. FLOW EVENTUALLY ALIGNS
OUT OF THE NNW LATER MON NGT INTO TUES...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER
POPS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES FOR A WEAK MULTIBAND EVENT. ACTIVITY
SHUD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUES NGT AS SFC RIDGING COMMENCES. SOME
TIMING DIFFS W/REGARD TO WED`S S/WV AND PLAYED CHC POPS MOST AREAS
BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAGUED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CNY/NEPA
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR OCCURRING IN SCT SHSN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF DAY MONDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MEANDERS TO THE EAST OVER UPSTATE NY. GENERALLY A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES AND PERIODS OF SHSN
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING.
LGT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SWLY 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 12Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL
NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM LGT SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JML/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190124
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
823 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN...PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY....WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONES. BETWEEN SHORT WAVES WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY SNOW AROUND THE EDGES. BATCH OF SNOW IN CENT PA AND
WRN NY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DEPICTED BY MODELS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXPECTED WHICH IS WHAT WE ALREADY HAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NEAR TERM. TWO MAIN
S/WV`S ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF...ONE OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE
OTHER DIVING SWD ACRS WI. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANY OFFHORE DVLPMNT
ASSCD WITH THESE WAVES WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA...BUT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON SE ZONES AS THE RUC SUGGESTS POTNL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVNG THERE AS 300 MB JET LIFTS
NEWD. OTRW IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL BE DEALING WITH -SHSN DUE TO THE
UPR TROF AND ASSCD SFC FEATURES. WEAK SFC TROF WILL MOV EWD ACRS
THE FCST AREA TNGT. WE RETAINED CAT/LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVNG HRS.
XPCT ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1 INCH RNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REALLY NOT MUCH CHG INTO TUES AS UPR TROF PERSISTS OVER THE RGN.
LOW LVL FLOW MAY ALIGN FROM THE W FOR A BRIEF PD LATER MON NGT
ALLOWING LES BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA FOR A WHILE...BUT CRNT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE TEMPORARY AND PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRSV W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. FLOW EVENTUALLY ALIGNS
OUT OF THE NNW LATER MON NGT INTO TUES...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER
POPS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES FOR A WEAK MULTIBAND EVENT. ACTIVITY
SHUD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUES NGT AS SFC RIDGING COMMENCES. SOME
TIMING DIFFS W/REGARD TO WED`S S/WV AND PLAYED CHC POPS MOST AREAS
BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAUGED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS CNY/NEPA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCNL IFR VSBY AND MAYBE CIG IN SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...UPR LOW JUST
MEANDERS OVER WRN NY AND FINALLY SWINGS A WIND SHIFT LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z IN ELM ENDING AT 10Z IN THE
EAST. WITH THE SNOW IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR/VFR LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...VSBYS VFR. THE EXCEPTION MONDAY COULD BE AT KRME WHERE
LLVL COLD ADVECTION OVER LK ONTARIO MAY HELP TO CONTINUE MVFR
AND -SHSN. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVG THROUGH.
WINDS S-SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO SW TONIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE BAND OF SNOW. ON MONDAY W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS
CNTRL NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 182345
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY....WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NEAR TERM. TWO MAIN
S/WV`S ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF...ONE OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE
OTHER DIVING SWD ACRS WI. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANY OFFHORE DVLPMNT
ASSCD WITH THESE WAVES WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA...BUT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON SE ZONES AS THE RUC SUGGESTS POTNL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVNG THERE AS 300 MB JET LIFTS NEWD.
OTRW IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL BE DEALING WITH -SHSN DUE TO THE UPR
TROF AND ASSCD SFC FEATURES. WEAK SFC TROF WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE
FCST AREA TNGT. WE RETAINED CAT/LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVNG HRS.
XPCT ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1 INCH RNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REALLY NOT MUCH CHG INTO TUES AS UPR TROF PERSISTS OVER THE RGN.
LOW LVL FLOW MAY ALIGN FROM THE W FOR A BRIEF PD LATER MON NGT
ALLOWING LES BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA FOR A WHILE...BUT CRNT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE TEMPORARY AND PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRSV W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. FLOW EVENTUALLY ALIGNS
OUT OF THE NNW LATER MON NGT INTO TUES...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER
POPS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES FOR A WEAK MULTIBAND EVENT. ACTIVITY
SHUD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUES NGT AS SFC RIDGING COMMENCES. SOME
TIMING DIFFS W/REGARD TO WED`S S/WV AND PLAYED CHC POPS MOST AREAS
BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAUGED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS CNY/NEPA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCNL IFR VSBY AND MAYBE CIG IN SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...UPR LOW JUST
MEANDERS OVER WRN NY AND FINALLY SWINGS A WIND SHIFT LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z IN ELM ENDING AT 10Z IN THE
EAST. WITH THE SNOW IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR/VFR LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...VSBYS VFR. THE EXCEPTION MONDAY COULD BE AT KRME WHERE
LLVL COLD ADVECTION OVER LK ONTARIO MAY HELP TO CONTINUE MVFR
AND -SHSN. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVG THROUGH.
WINDS S-SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO SW TONIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE BAND OF SNOW. ON MONDAY W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS
CNTRL NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181943
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY....WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NEAR TERM. TWO MAIN
S/WV`S ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF...ONE OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE
OTHER DIVING SWD ACRS WI. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANY OFFHORE DVLPMNT
ASSCD WITH THESE WAVES WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA...BUT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON SE ZONES AS THE RUC SUGGESTS POTNL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVNG THERE AS 300 MB JET LIFTS NEWD.
OTRW IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL BE DEALING WITH -SHSN DUE TO THE UPR
TROF AND ASSCD SFC FEATURES. WEAK SFC TROF WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE
FCST AREA TNGT. WE RETAINED CAT/LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVNG HRS.
XPCT ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1 INCH RNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REALLY NOT MUCH CHG INTO TUES AS UPR TROF PERSISTS OVER THE RGN.
LOW LVL FLOW MAY ALIGN FROM THE W FOR A BRIEF PD LATER MON NGT
ALLOWING LES BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA FOR A WHILE...BUT CRNT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE TEMPORARY AND PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRSV W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. FLOW EVENTUALLY ALIGNS
OUT OF THE NNW LATER MON NGT INTO TUES...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER
POPS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES FOR A WEAK MULTIBAND EVENT. ACTIVITY
SHUD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUES NGT AS SFC RIDGING COMMENCES. SOME
TIMING DIFFS W/REGARD TO WED`S S/WV AND PLAYED CHC POPS MOST AREAS
BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAUGED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS CNY/NEPA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCNL IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...UPR LOW JUST MEANDERS OVER
WRN NY AND FINALLY SWINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AFT 06Z. WITH STAGNANT BLYR FLOW AND LITTLE MIXING...WE ARE
FIGURING ANY VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER DARK...AND
THIS IS WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...YET
THERE ARE LOWER CIGS TO OUR SW WHICH MAY BE DRAWN NORTH AS SWLY
FLOW INCRS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIFT
CIGS BACK TO VFR...ESPLY AWAY FROM SYR-RME CORRIDOR WHERE LLVL
COLD ADVECTION OVER LK ONTARIO MAY HELP TO CONTINUE MVFR AND
-SHSN. WENT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFT 12Z MONDAY...AS
STRATOCU CLOUDS FORM IN THE MORNING AT LOW CONVECTIVE HEIGHT
LEVELS.
WITHOUT A DEFINITIVE TREND IN CIG HGTS AND VSBYS IN THE CURRENT
OBS...THE DETAILS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AND
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST.
WINDS S-SE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT ITH
WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER GUSTY AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT SW-W
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KTS.
MON...VRBL VFR-MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 925 AM...WELL...THIS IS DEFINITELY A HUMBLING
EXPERIENCE AS WE DID NOT SEE WARNING ACCUMS OCCURING WITH THIS
SYSTEM YDA. WE HAVE RECEIVED SVRL RPTS OF ACCUMS IN THE 8-12 INCH RNG
FROM THE SRN CATSKILLS INTO THE POCONOS WHERE AN INTENSE BAND MOVD
INTO AND THEN PERSISTED EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ADDN...ADVISORY ACCUMS
WERE NOTED IN MANY CNTRL NY COUNTIES...WHILE IN OTHERS ONLY AN
INCH OR TWO WAS NOTED. DEFINITELY A COMPLEX EVENT WITH GREAT
VARIABILITY IN SNOW ACCUMS...BUT OVERALL WE GREATLY UNDERFCST
AMTS....SPCLY ACRS SE ZONES. DEFINITELY A GOOD CASE STUDY.
ADVISORY FOR SE ZONES ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE INTENSE SNOW BAND
OVER WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. THERE ARE A FEW UPSTREAM
S/WV`S EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ONE WHICH IS RELATED TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF -SHSN OVER CNTRL PA...WHICH WILL WORK INTO THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTN. WE XPCT -SHSN TO BE LGT TO OCNLY MDT WITH
ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RNG.
UPDATED AT 730 AM...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SNOW REPORTS FROM THE NE
CORNER OF PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS IN NY OF 5-7 INCHES WITHIN A
VERY NARROW HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT HAS SET UP IN A SUBTLE
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE DEPICTED BY THE RUC13 ANALYSIS.
SPOTTERS ALSO REPORT UP TO 1 INCH/HOUR RATES...AND AN OUTLIER
REPORT OF 8 INCHES AT A HIGH ELEVATION SPOT. ELSEWHERE...MORE
WDSPRD REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE COMING IN FROM THAT AREA.
BASED ON THIS...AND MODELS SHOWING FGEN FORCING TO DIMINISH BTWN
13Z- 16Z...INDICATING THIS SMALL STORM IS WINDING DOWN...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SHORT FUSE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO AT LEAST
CAPTURE THE URGENCY OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...AND THE INCONVENIENCE IT MAY POSE TO SUNDAY MORNING
TRAVEL. MOST OF THIS SPECIFIC AREA WILL TOP OUT AT 3 TO 7 INCHES
WITH A FEW REPORTS AT ELEVATION PROBABLY COMING IN A COUPLE INCHES
HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER TODAY WITH PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL WX PATTERN THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS
UPPER LEVEL TROF ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FLOW OFF OF ERIE AND
ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OTHERWISE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WEATHER WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1255 PM...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS NOTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TO A FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS NOAM. STILL... CNY/NEPA WILL BE PLAUGED BY A COUPLE
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ALONG WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
AS ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE EXPERT SOLUTION FROM HPC AS THEY SEE
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...LEANING WITH THE EURO SUITE. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
PROVIDE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WEDS NITE-THURS WITH SNOW SHOWER
AND FLURRY PLUMES ACROSS CNY. CLIPPER LOW TAKES AIM AT NRN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NITE-FRI WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED HERE. TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO -23C FRI-SAT PER
ECMWF...AND ONLY SLGHTLY WARMER ON GFS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...MEANING NWLY
FLOW AND LES FOR THIS NECK OF THE WOODS. HPC TEMP PROGS LOOKED
GOOD...ESPLY AS THEY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OF MEX MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE ARCTIC AIR ON DAYS 6-7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS CNY/NEPA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCNL IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS. THEN...UPR LOW JUST MEANDERS OVER
WRN NY AND FINALLY SWINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AFT 06Z. WITH STAGNANT BLYR FLOW AND LITTLE MIXING...WE ARE
FIGURING ANY VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER DARK...AND
THIS IS WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...YET
THERE ARE LOWER CIGS TO OUR SW WHICH MAY BE DRAWN NORTH AS SWLY
FLOW INCRS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIFT
CIGS BACK TO VFR...ESPLY AWAY FROM SYR-RME CORRIDOR WHERE LLVL
COLD ADVECTION OVER LK ONTARIO MAY HELP TO CONTINUE MVFR AND
-SHSN. WENT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFT 12Z MONDAY...AS
STRATOCU CLOUDS FORM IN THE MORNING AT LOW CONVECTIVE HEIGHT
LEVELS.
WITHOUT A DEFINITIVE TREND IN CIG HGTS AND VSBYS IN THE CURRENT
OBS...THE DETAILS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AND
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST.
WINDS S-SE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT ITH
WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER GUSTY AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT SW-W
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KTS.
MON...VRBL VFR-MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS...VFR BECMG MVFR/IFR. PM SNOW LIKELY.
WEDS NITE...SNOW DIMINISHING TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN CNY.
THURS...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN SE OF LK ONTARIO.
FRI...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...NWS
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181439
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 925 AM...WELL...THIS IS DEFINITELY A HUMBLING
EXPERIENCE AS WE DID NOT SEE WARNING ACCUMS OCCURING WITH THIS
SYSTEM YDA. WE HAVE RECEIVED SVRL RPTS OF ACCUMS IN THE 8-12 INCH RNG
FROM THE SRN CATSKILLS INTO THE POCONOS WHERE AN INTENSE BAND MOVD
INTO AND THEN PERSISTED EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ADDN...ADVISORY ACCUMS
WERE NOTED IN MANY CNTRL NY COUNTIES...WHILE IN OTHERS ONLY AN
INCH OR TWO WAS NOTED. DEFINITELY A COMPLEX EVENT WITH GREAT
VARIABILITY IN SNOW ACCUMS...BUT OVERALL WE GREATLY UNDERFCST
AMTS....SPCLY ACRS SE ZONES. DEFINITELY A GOOD CASE STUDY.
ADVISORY FOR SE ZONES ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE INTENSE SNOW BAND
OVER WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. THERE ARE A FEW UPSTREAM
S/WV`S EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ONE WHICH IS RELATED TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF -SHSN OVER CNTRL PA...WHICH WILL WORK INTO THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTN. WE XPCT -SHSN TO BE LGT TO OCNLY MDT WITH
ACCUMS GNRLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RNG.
UPDATED AT 730 AM...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SNOW REPORTS FROM THE NE
CORNER OF PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS IN NY OF 5-7 INCHES WITHIN A
VERY NARROW HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT HAS SET UP IN A SUBTLE
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE DEPICTED BY THE RUC13 ANALYSIS.
SPOTTERS ALSO REPORT UP TO 1 INCH/HOUR RATES...AND AN OUTLIER
REPORT OF 8 INCHES AT A HIGH ELEVATION SPOT. ELSEWHERE...MORE
WDSPRD REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE COMING IN FROM THAT AREA.
BASED ON THIS...AND MODELS SHOWING FGEN FORCING TO DIMINISH BTWN
13Z- 16Z...INDICATING THIS SMALL STORM IS WINDING DOWN...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SHORT FUSE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO AT LEAST
CAPTURE THE URGENCY OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...AND THE INCONVENIENCE IT MAY POSE TO SUNDAY MORNING
TRAVEL. MOST OF THIS SPECIFIC AREA WILL TOP OUT AT 3 TO 7 INCHES
WITH A FEW REPORTS AT ELEVATION PROBABLY COMING IN A COUPLE INCHES
HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER TODAY WITH PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL WX PATTERN THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS
UPPER LEVEL TROF ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FLOW OFF OF ERIE AND
ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OTHERWISE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WEATHER WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE TERMINAL FCST AREAS THIS MORNING. GENERALY VFR CIGS WITH SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTLHOUGH
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER BRIEFLY TO BKN MVFR AS MORE STRATOCU
CLOUDS FORM AT LOWER CONVECTIVE LEVELS...ESPLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING IN AND OUT OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AND WRN NY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MON...VRBL VFR-MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181234
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 730 AM...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SNOW REPORTS FROM THE NE
CORNER OF PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS IN NY OF 5-7 INCHES WITHIN A
VERY NARROW HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT HAS SET UP IN A SUBTLE
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE DEPICTED BY THE RUC13 ANALYSIS.
SPOTTERS ALSO REPORT UP TO 1 INCH/HOUR RATES...AND AN OUTLIER
REPORT OF 8 INCHES AT A HIGH ELEVATION SPOT. ELSEWHERE...MORE WDSPRD
REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE COMING IN FROM THAT AREA. BASED ON
THIS...AND MODELS SHOWING FGEN FORCING TO DIMINISH BTWN 13Z-
16Z...INDICATING THIS SMALL STORM IS WINDING DOWN...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SHORT FUSE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO AT LEAST
CAPTURE THE URGENCY OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...AND THE INCONVENIENCE IT MAY POSE TO SUNDAY MORNING
TRAVEL. MOST OF THIS SPECIFIC AREA WILL TOP OUT AT 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH A
FEW REPORTS AT ELEVATION PROBABLY COMING IN A COUPLE INCHES HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER TODAY WITH PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL WX PATTERN THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS
UPPER LEVEL TROF ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FLOW OFF OF ERIE AND
ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OTHERWISE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WEATHER WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE TERMINAL FCST AREAS THIS MORNING. GENERALY VFR CIGS WITH SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTLHOUGH
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER BRIEFLY TO BKN MVFR AS MORE STRATOCU
CLOUDS FORM AT LOWER CONVECTIVE LEVELS...ESPLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING IN AND OUT OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AND WRN NY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MON...VRBL VFR-MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181141
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLIPPER REMNANTS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND RE-INTENSIFY LATER
TODAY. THE EXISTENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE EASTWARD THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
WILL ADD ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS FROM 925-850MB WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FRIGID
CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL WX PATTERN THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS
UPPER LEVEL TROF ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FLOW OFF OF ERIE AND
ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OTHERWISE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WEATHER WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE TERMINAL FCST AREAS THIS MORNING. GENERALY VFR CIGS WITH SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTLHOUGH
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER BRIEFLY TO BKN MVFR AS MORE STRATOCU
CLOUDS FORM AT LOWER CONVECTIVE LEVELS...ESPLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING IN AND OUT OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AND WRN NY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MON...VRBL VFR-MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 180743
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLIPPER REMNANTS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND RE-INTENSIFY LATER
TODAY. THE EXISTENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE EASTWARD THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
WILL ADD ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS FROM 925-850MB WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FRIGID
CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL WX PATTERN THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS
UPPER LEVEL TROF ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FLOW OFF OF ERIE AND
ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF OTHERWISE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WEATHER WILL
CLEAR ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. MAINLY LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A BREAK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE MRNG
AS PRECIP LETS UP, BUT PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AS SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE AREA. KEPT
MVFR, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED SHSN.
SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TWD SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/JML
000
FXUS61 KBGM 180541
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1241 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE TO LOWER CURRENT AND MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. STEADY SNOW
ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. NOW SNOW IN EXTREME WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE
FRONT EDGE IS ERODING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FEW SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. SNOW ACCUMS
OVERNIGHT STILL APPEAR IN LINE GIVEN NEW MODEL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TWDS THE AREA TNGT...WITH ATTENDANT AREA
OF WAA-INDUCED PCPN. BIG "DEBATE" WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR SVRL REASONS. A PERUSAL OF HISTORICAL ANALOGUES OF
SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS INDICATES HIEST PROBS OF A 2-4 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR ACCUMS >4 INCHES...WHICH ALSO AGREES
WITH LATEST HPC/WWD FCST ACCUMS. SREFS ALSO INDICATE ACCUMS IN THE
1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RNG...AND MDLS OF LATE (PAST FEW MONTHS) HAVE HAD
A PRONOUNCED BIAS (QPF MUCH TOO HIGH) W/RESPECT TO QPF WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A LOOK UPSTREAM AT CRNT PCPN AMTS AND FCST MDL
AMTS SUGGESTS THE SAME BIAS MAY BE OCCURING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS ONE PARAM THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLY INFLATING
AMTS..AND THAT IS THE SNOW GROWTH PROFILES WHICH SHOW A DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY. BUT EVEN GIVEN THIS...AND
USING A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/HPC QPF ALONG WITH 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR
TNGT (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POTNL PCPN BIAS) GETS US...AT
BEST...ARND 3 INCHES TNGT. POTNL FOR TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES
BY SUNDAY AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WON`T SEE THE 12-HR
ADVISORY CRITERIA (AT LEAST THAT`S OUR BEST GUESS). AS FAR AS
WINDS GO...LOWER LVLS LOOK STABLE ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPRD BLOWING
SNOW...SO NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. EVNG SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND
UPGRADE IF DEEMED NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE RGN ON MON AND PERSIST INTO
TUE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL COME ARND TO NWLY ON MON WITH LES DVLPNG BY
THIS TIME. UNSETTLED WITH SCT -SHSN DUE TO UPR LVL TROF OR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. XPCT JUST MINOR ACCUMS AT THIS POINT BUT LES POTNL
FOR MON/MON NGT WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FCST
PCKGS. AT LEAST WE WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NGTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. MAINLY LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A BREAK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE MRNG
AS PRECIP LETS UP, BUT PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AS SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE AREA. KEPT
MVFR, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED SHSN.
SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TWD SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/JML
000
FXUS61 KBGM 180355
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1055 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE TO LOWER CURRENT AND MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. STEADY SNOW
ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. NOW SNOW IN EXTREME WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE
FRONT EDGE IS ERODING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FEW SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. SNOW ACCUMS
OVERNIGHT STILL APPEAR IN LINE GIVEN NEW MODEL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TWDS THE AREA TNGT...WITH ATTENDANT AREA
OF WAA-INDUCED PCPN. BIG "DEBATE" WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR SVRL REASONS. A PERUSAL OF HISTORICAL ANALOGUES OF
SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS INDICATES HIEST PROBS OF A 2-4 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR ACCUMS >4 INCHES...WHICH ALSO AGREES
WITH LATEST HPC/WWD FCST ACCUMS. SREFS ALSO INDICATE ACCUMS IN THE
1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RNG...AND MDLS OF LATE (PAST FEW MONTHS) HAVE HAD
A PRONOUNCED BIAS (QPF MUCH TOO HIGH) W/RESPECT TO QPF WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A LOOK UPSTREAM AT CRNT PCPN AMTS AND FCST MDL
AMTS SUGGESTS THE SAME BIAS MAY BE OCCURING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS ONE PARAM THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLY INFLATING
AMTS..AND THAT IS THE SNOW GROWTH PROFILES WHICH SHOW A DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY. BUT EVEN GIVEN THIS...AND
USING A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/HPC QPF ALONG WITH 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR
TNGT (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POTNL PCPN BIAS) GETS US...AT
BEST...ARND 3 INCHES TNGT. POTNL FOR TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES
BY SUNDAY AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WON`T SEE THE 12-HR
ADVISORY CRITIERIA (AT LEAST THAT`S OUR BEST GUESS). AS FAR AS
WINDS GO...LOWER LVLS LOOK STABLE ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPRD BLOWING
SNOW...SO NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. EVNG SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND
UPGRADE IF DEEMED NECCESARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE RGN ON MON AND PERSIST INTO
TUE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL COME ARND TO NWLY ON MON WITH LES DVLPNG BY
THIS TIME. UNSETTLED WITH SCT -SHSN DUE TO UPR LVL TROF OR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. XPCT JUST MINOR ACCUMS AT THIS POINT BUT LES POTNL
FOR MON/MON NGT WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FCST
PCKGS. AT LEAST WE WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NGTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW MOVG INTO UPSTATE NY ATTM. HAS BEEN AT KELM FOR AN HOUR WITH
IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME EROSION SEEN ON RADAR LOOPS BUT SNOW
AND IFR/MVFR INTO BGM/ITH THIS EVENING THEN REST OF SITES SHORTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF DAY. SNOW MAY END
MIDDAY AT AVP BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AS VSBYS RISE TO VFR.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING POOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS HIGH WITH
THIS EVENT. SNOW ACCUMS ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 INCHES ON RUNWAYS AND
TARMAC WILL LIKELY NEED MITIGATION BY AIRPORT OPERATORS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
E TO SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WIND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 172354
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TWDS THE AREA TNGT...WITH ATTENDANT AREA
OF WAA-INDUCED PCPN. BIG "DEBATE" WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR SVRL REASONS. A PERUSAL OF HISTORICAL ANALOGUES OF
SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS INDICATES HIEST PROBS OF A 2-4 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR ACCUMS >4 INCHES...WHICH ALSO AGREES
WITH LATEST HPC/WWD FCST ACCUMS. SREFS ALSO INDICATE ACCUMS IN THE
1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RNG...AND MDLS OF LATE (PAST FEW MONTHS) HAVE HAD
A PRONOUNCED BIAS (QPF MUCH TOO HIGH) W/RESPECT TO QPF WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A LOOK UPSTREAM AT CRNT PCPN AMTS AND FCST MDL
AMTS SUGGESTS THE SAME BIAS MAY BE OCCURING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS ONE PARAM THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLY INFLATING
AMTS..AND THAT IS THE SNOW GROWTH PROFILES WHICH SHOW A DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY. BUT EVEN GIVEN THIS...AND
USING A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/HPC QPF ALONG WITH 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR
TNGT (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POTNL PCPN BIAS) GETS US...AT
BEST...ARND 3 INCHES TNGT. POTNL FOR TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES
BY SUNDAY AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WON`T SEE THE 12-HR
ADVISORY CRITIERIA (AT LEAST THAT`S OUR BEST GUESS). AS FAR AS
WINDS GO...LOWER LVLS LOOK STABLE ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPRD BLOWING
SNOW...SO NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. EVNG SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND
UPGRADE IF DEEMED NECCESARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE RGN ON MON AND PERSIST INTO
TUE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL COME ARND TO NWLY ON MON WITH LES DVLPNG BY
THIS TIME. UNSETTLED WITH SCT -SHSN DUE TO UPR LVL TROF OR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. XPCT JUST MINOR ACCUMS AT THIS POINT BUT LES POTNL
FOR MON/MON NGT WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FCST
PCKGS. AT LEAST WE WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NGTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW MOVG INTO UPSTATE NY ATTM. HAS BEEN AT KELM FOR AN HOUR WITH
IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME EROSION SEEN ON RADAR LOOPS BUT SNOW
AND IFR/MVFR INTO BGM/ITH THIS EVENING THEN REST OF SITES SHORTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF DAY. SNOW MAY END
MIDDAY AT AVP BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AS VSBYS RISE TO VFR.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING POOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS HIGH WITH
THIS EVENT. SNOW ACCUMS ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 INCHES ON RUNWAYS AND
TARMAC WILL LIKELY NEED MITIGATION BY AIRPORT OPERATORS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
E TO SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WIND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171918
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TWDS THE AREA TNGT...WITH ATTENDANT AREA
OF WAA-INDUCED PCPN. BIG "DEBATE" WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR SVRL REASONS. A PERUSAL OF HISTORICAL ANALOGUES OF
SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS INDICATES HIEST PROBS OF A 2-4 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR ACCUMS >4 INCHES...WHICH ALSO AGREES
WITH LATEST HPC/WWD FCST ACCUMS. SREFS ALSO INDICATE ACCUMS IN THE
1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RNG...AND MDLS OF LATE (PAST FEW MONTHS) HAVE HAD
A PRONOUNCED BIAS (QPF MUCH TOO HIGH) W/RESPECT TO QPF WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A LOOK UPSTREAM AT CRNT PCPN AMTS AND FCST MDL
AMTS SUGGESTS THE SAME BIAS MAY BE OCCURING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS ONE PARAM THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLY INFLATING
AMTS..AND THAT IS THE SNOW GROWTH PROFILES WHICH SHOW A DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY. BUT EVEN GIVEN THIS...AND
USING A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/HPC QPF ALONG WITH 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR
TNGT (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POTNL PCPN BIAS) GETS US...AT
BEST...ARND 3 INCHES TNGT. POTNL FOR TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES
BY SUNDAY AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WON`T SEE THE 12-HR
ADVISORY CRITIERIA (AT LEAST THAT`S OUR BEST GUESS). AS FAR AS
WINDS GO...LOWER LVLS LOOK STABLE ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPRD BLOWING
SNOW...SO NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. EVNG SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND
UPGRADE IF DEEMED NECCESARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE RGN ON MON AND PERSIST INTO
TUE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL COME ARND TO NWLY ON MON WITH LES DVLPNG BY
THIS TIME. UNSETTLED WITH SCT -SHSN DUE TO UPR LVL TROF OR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. XPCT JUST MINOR ACCUMS AT THIS POINT BUT LES POTNL
FOR MON/MON NGT WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FCST
PCKGS. AT LEAST WE WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NGTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR DETERIORATES QUICKLY AFT 00Z TO IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE WRN GTLKS TO A POSITION OVER LK ONTARIO WHERE THE
SYSTEM STALLS. IFR SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SNOW SHOWERS FROM 12Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPING POOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
ACCUMS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES ON RUNWAYS AND TARMAC WILL
LIKELY NEED MITIGATION BY AIRPORT OPERATORS TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
SUN...IFR IMPRVG TO MVFR. PERIODS OF SNOW DIMINISHING TO SCT -SHSN
WHICH MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171818
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
118 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF AND
ON INTO MONDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER UPSTATE
NEW YORK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 945 AM...MINOR 1ST PD TWEEKS TO CRNT ZONES/GRIDS. WIND
CHILLS AT A FEW LOCATIONS STILL IN THE -10 TO -20 RNG...AND WILL
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE LATER THIS MRNG. SPED UP THE INCRS IN CLDS
FROM W TO E THIS AFTN AS IT APPEARS WE`LL HAVE A SOLID UPR LVL OVC
BY MID AFTN. PREV BLO...
FCST UPDTD TO REMOVE MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NRN ONEIDA
AS BAND IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...BACKED OFF A LITTLE
BIT ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH JUST HIGH THIN CIRRUS ON SATL
AND OUT THE WINDOW. CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCRG LATER THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF WEAK CLIPPER LOW MOVG THRU WRN LAKES WITH A SLGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER
BY DARK. STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE IS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND NRN WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT. ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL AMPLIFY SYSTEM AND RESULT
IN FAIRLY SLOW MVMNT. HWVR...MOST OF THE QPF ASSOC WITH SYSTEM WILL
FALL AS A RESULT OF WAA.
VRY LITTLE PCPN IS NOTED UPSTREAM WITH MOST VSBYS RUNNING 1-3SM. HV
NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY MODERATE SNOW REPORTS FM THAT AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HV VRY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT MVS IN WITH
EXCEPTION OF WHAT IT MAY PICK UP OVR THE GREAT LAKES (THOSE THAT RMN
UNFROZEN ANYWAY). THUS IT WAS A SURPRISE TO SEE 0.30-0.35 INCHES OF
24-HR QPF FROM 00Z GFS BEING ADVERTISED FOR TONIGHT OVR CWA. THIS
WUD MOST CERTAINLY YIELD ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE FA. ON THE FLIPSIDE...18Z NAM CAME IN AT ABOUT HALF THAT NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE WHILE 00Z NAM IS JUST A TAD HEAVIER WITH AMNTS.
BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES THIS YR BY BOTH MODELS...FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT QPF WILL BE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT AMNT. BOTH GFS/NAM HV
BEEN OVERBLOWN THIS YEAR ON QPF AND AM VERY LEERY IN TAKING OUTPUT
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS CLIPPER...EVEN IF IT DOES SLOW SLIGHTLY.
BOTH 00Z NGM AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON QPF RANGING FROM 0.10-0.20
INCHES FROM 00Z-12Z SUN. HPC QPF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH
LOWER AMNTS...GNRLY AVERAGING ARND 0.15 INCHES. FINDING IT HARDER
AND HARDER TO BET AGAINST THE ECMWF THIS YEAR AND WILL SIDE WITH ITS
OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT HPC IS ADVERTISING.
WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...CUD SEE SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 TONIGHT. WITH THIS QPF...SNOW TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVR NY ZONES AND 1-3 INCHES OVR NEPA. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SNOW IN THE HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL NOT MV MUCH AT ALL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW AND PLENTY OF
CLDS COUPLED WITH WAA. THUS WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A 1-2 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPS THRU 12Z.
FNT LOOKS TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST THRU SUNDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S WITH SW
FLOW. LIKELY POPS LOOK WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY WITH LGT SNOW POSSIBLE
ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF DRY SLOT SHUTS PCPN OFF
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME SUN AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME TYPE OF COASTAL STORM DVLPNG BY
12Z MONDAY. ONLY QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT DEVELOP AND WILL IT BE
CLOSE ENUF TO SHORE TO AFFECT SERN ZONES. CURRENT FCST HAS LIKELY
POPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. 00Z GFS WUD INDICATE LIKELY POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR MONDAY AS SFC LOPRES DVLPS OVR THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SWEEPS NORTH AND EAST OVR THE DELMARVA BY 12Z MONDAY SPREADING PCPN
INTO SERN ZONES.
00Z ECMWF INDICATES A WK LOW OVR MD 00Z MONDAY WITH MORE RAPID
DVLPMNT JUST EAST OF MAINE 12Z MONDAY. A LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM YIELDS
A SOLN CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LOPRES EMERGING OFF THE SE
COAST AND DVLPNG OFFSHORE 12Z MON. HWVR...IT IS INDICATING DVLPMNT
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TO BRING PCPN TO SERN
ZONES. 12Z CANADIAN FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS WITH ITS SOLN WITH A SFC LOW
NR THE DELMARVA 12Z MONDAY. THUS WILL CHG NOTHING DRG THIS TIME PD
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT
APPEARS SOMETHING WILL BE DVLPNG OFFSHORE MON MORNING. ITS JUST A
MATTER OF WHERE. AT THIS TIME POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM HATTERAS TO
MAINE.
LK EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT BHND FNT SUN NGT THRU THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT...FLOW LOOKS TO BE LGT AND
DISORGANIZED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LK SNOWS. CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS
MARGINAL AS DOES INSTABILITY AND LL LAPSE RATES.
TEMPS CLIMBING TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
SURGE DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE TEENS AGAIN BY TUESDAY MRNG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF CLOSELY FOR THE DETAILS. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SEEMED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS OF UPSTATE NY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA WEDS NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SWLY RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY
ONE OF THE "MILDER" /UPR 20S/ DAYS WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
THE ONLY SYSTEM POSING SOME CONCERN AS A SIG WX MAKER IS A
CLIPPER LOW PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GTLKS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF WDSPRD SNOW IF IT ACTUALLY
REMAINS IN THE FCST ENVELOPE. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN OFFER UP A RETURN
TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C BEHIND
THE LOW. HAVE UNDERCUT HPC AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE BY 3-5 DEGREES
BASED ON THE RAW MODEL PROGS...AS HEAVY CLIMO INFLUENCE IS
PROBABLY HOLDING GUIDANCE TOO WARM NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN EXPECTED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR DETERIORATES QUICKLY AFT 00Z TO IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE WRN GTLKS TO A POSITION OVER LK ONTARIO WHERE THE
SYSTEM STALLS. IFR SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SNOW SHOWERS FROM 12Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPING POOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
ACCUMS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES ON RUNWAYS AND TARMAC WILL
LIKELY NEED MITIGATION BY AIRPORT OPERATORS TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
SUN...IFR IMPRVG TO MVFR. PERIODS OF SNOW DIMINISHING TO SCT -SHSN
WHICH MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN.
MON NITE-TUE...VFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR ACRS CNTRL NY.
WEDS/THURS...VFR. SCT MVFR -SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
| 
