000
FXUS63 KAPX 201759
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
COLD DRY AIR WILL HANG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PESTER PARTS OF THE NORTH WOODS. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT
TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...OR
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AN ORGANIZE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1106 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WAS RIDGED NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES HUGGING THE HURON COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
CLOUDS AND POPS TODAY.
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE TODAY. WANING OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -15 TO 16 C RANGE WARMING TO
BETWEEN -11 AND -13 C BY 00Z WED. PREPONDERANCE OF DRY AIR (MEAN
900-700 MB RH 20 TO 40 PERCENT) TO START WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 50 TO 60 PERCENT).
LASTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW BACKS TO NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE ABOVE
FACTORS POINT TO LESS FAVORABLE LES DEVELOPMENT SO WILL GO WITH
FLURRIES IN AFFECTED LES REGIME LOCATIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REVERING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS FOR HIGHS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT
TO MAINLY ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
SULLIVAN
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEAS ARE THERE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND STRENGTH. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...GOING TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.
THEN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...GOING TO START
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...GOING
TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO BE AS INTENSE AS WE WOULD NEED FOR A GOOD
FZ DRIZZLE EVENT AND CHOOSING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. EITHER WAY...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THEN...AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...NOT ANY
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THIS QUIET PERIOD MAY
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. KAS
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1256 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT KAPN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO KPLN AND REMAIN AT KTVC LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
AJS
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 201630
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
COLD DRY AIR WILL HANG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PESTER PARTS OF THE NORTH WOODS. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT
TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...OR
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AN ORGANIZE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1106 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WAS RIDGED NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES HUGGING THE HURON COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
CLOUDS AND POPS TODAY.
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE TODAY. WANING OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -15 TO 16 C RANGE WARMING TO
BETWEEN -11 AND -13 C BY 00Z WED. PREPONDERANCE OF DRY AIR (MEAN
900-700 MB RH 20 TO 40 PERCENT) TO START WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 50 TO 60 PERCENT).
LASTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW BACKS TO NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE ABOVE
FACTORS POINT TO LESS FAVORABLE LES DEVELOPMENT SO WILL GO WITH
FLURRIES IN AFFECTED LES REGIME LOCATIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REVERING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS FOR HIGHS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT
TO MAINLY ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
SULLIVAN
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEAS ARE THERE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND STRENGTH. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...GOING TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.
THEN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...GOING TO START
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...GOING
TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO BE AS INTENSE AS WE WOULD NEED FOR A GOOD
FZ DRIZZLE EVENT AND CHOOSING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. EITHER WAY...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THEN...AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...NOT ANY
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THIS QUIET PERIOD MAY
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. KAS
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 631 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF AT KAPN BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO KPLN LATER
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
KAS
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 201132
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
COLD DRY AIR WILL HANG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PESTER THE NORTH WOODS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DRAW IN MILDER
AIR AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...OR POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRY AN ORGANIZE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TODAY
ANOTHER COLD MORNING HAS DEVELOPED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...PUSHING ALL THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL OFF
SHORE. STUBBORN LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE HURON HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR FORECAST ISSUES SURROUNDING CLOUD COVER/FLURRIES
AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TO BEGIN...THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DOWN TO UNDER 3KFT AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES
HOLD. THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAKE A HUGE HIT AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON REALLY
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES TO CREEP INTO NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. WE WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES FROM WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT CREEP INTO EASTERN UPPER BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY (MAINLY
IN THE TEENS). KAS
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEAS ARE THERE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND STRENGTH. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...GOING TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.
THEN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...GOING TO START
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...GOING
TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO BE AS INTENSE AS WE WOULD NEED FOR A GOOD
FZ DRIZZLE EVENT AND CHOOSING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. EITHER WAY...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THEN...AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...NOT ANY
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THIS QUIET PERIOD MAY
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. KAS
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 631 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF AT KAPN BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO KPLN LATER
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
KAS
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 200827
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
COLD DRY AIR WILL HANG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PESTER THE NORTH WOODS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DRAW IN MILDER
AIR AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...OR POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRY AN ORGANIZE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TODAY
ANOTHER COLD MORNING HAS DEVELOPED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...PUSHING ALL THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL OFF
SHORE. STUBBORN LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE HURON HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR FORECAST ISSUES SURROUNDING CLOUD COVER/FLURRIES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TO BEGIN...THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DOWN TO UNDER 3KFT AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES
HOLD. THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAKE A HUGE HIT AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON REALLY
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES TO CREEP INTO NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. WE WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES FROM WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT CREEP INTO EASTERN UPPER BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY (MAINLY
IN THE TEENS). KAS
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEAS ARE THERE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND STRENGTH. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...GOING TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.
THEN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...GOING TO START
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...GOING
TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT FROM
THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WE WILL BE WARM ADVECTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS GOING TO BE AS INTENSE AS WE WOULD NEED FOR A GOOD FZ
DRIZZLE EVENT AND CHOOSING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
EITHER WAY...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THEN...AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...NOT ANY
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THIS QUIET PERIOD MAY
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. KAS
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1145 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC
THRU TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 200454
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL GENERATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WHILE NORTH WINDS GENERATE LAKE SNOWS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION. SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND NE
LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY FLOW AND DELTA T`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REACH THE GROUND BY
12Z. ERN UPR AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR. EVEN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
SHORELINES WILL SEE SOME PERIODIC CLEAR AS SCT LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES
DRIFT IN AND OUT OVERNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. STAY WARM!
TUESDAY...AT 12Z, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE FROM THE LEVELS
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CURVATURE BECOMES DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
SO AM EXPECTING THAT ANY LES WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IF NOT DONE.
HOWEVER, AS THE WIND TURNS WEST BY 18Z, THERE MAY BE A LAST
HURRAH, BEFORE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE -13C. SO HAVE
DIMINISHED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE. BY 00Z, THE
THE NAM IS UP TO -10C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GFS AROUND -12C.
SO WITH THE LESS THAN 40% RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL GO WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...A
RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL. A BRIEF
"WARM UP" IS ON THE HORIZON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
RECENT OUTBREAK). THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE
OBVIOUS (POPS AND TEMPS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN EVIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS HOLD ONTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH/EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH ABOUT 80 PERCENT) AND CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART (EXCEPT 10 TO 15 ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR MORE LIKELY
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SPELLS MORE MILD AIR. STILL
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL END UP BEING MOIST ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (-20 TO -25
C) SET TO INVADE THE NORTHWOODS (FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MORE LIKE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY). THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A BURST OF SNOW
WITH THE FRONT. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CHANCES BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESSENED SOME WITH INCREASING ICE COVERAGE.
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OVER THE WEEKEND AND 15 TO 20 ON
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
MODERATING TEMPS SHOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS CANADA WHICH MAY END UP BEING
TAPPED.
SULLIVAN
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 5 TO 10 KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS OF LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK
WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LUTZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1145 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC
THRU TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 200313
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1012 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL GENERATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WHILE NORTH WINDS GENERATE LAKE SNOWS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION. SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND NE
LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY FLOW AND DELTA T`S IN THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REACH THE GROUND BY
12Z. ERN UPR AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR. EVEN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
SHORELINES WILL SEE SOME PERIODIC CLEAR AS SCT LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES
DRIFT IN AND OUT OVERNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. STAY WARM!
TUESDAY...AT 12Z, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE FROM THE LEVELS
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CURVATURE BECOMES DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
SO AM EXPECTING THAT ANY LES WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IF NOT DONE.
HOWEVER, AS THE WIND TURNS WEST BY 18Z, THERE MAY BE A LAST
HURRAH, BEFORE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE -13C. SO HAVE
DIMINISHED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE. BY 00Z, THE
THE NAM IS UP TO -10C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GFS AROUND -12C.
SO WITH THE LESS THAN 40% RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL GO WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...A
RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL. A BRIEF
"WARM UP" IS ON THE HORIZON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
RECENT OUTBREAK). THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE
OBVIOUS (POPS AND TEMPS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN EVIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS HOLD ONTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH/EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH ABOUT 80 PERCENT) AND CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART (EXCEPT 10 TO 15 ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR MORE LIKELY
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SPELLS MORE MILD AIR. STILL
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL END UP BEING MOIST ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (-20 TO -25
C) SET TO INVADE THE NORTHWOODS (FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MORE LIKE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY). THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A BURST OF SNOW
WITH THE FRONT. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CHANCES BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESSENED SOME WITH INCREASING ICE COVERAGE.
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OVER THE WEEKEND AND 15 TO 20 ON
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
MODERATING TEMPS SHOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS CANADA WHICH MAY END UP BEING
TAPPED.
SULLIVAN
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 5 TO 10 KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS OF LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK
WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LUTZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 613 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC THRU THE
24 HR TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 192313
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
613 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL GENERATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WHILE NORTH WINDS GENERATE LAKE SNOWS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES AT LEAST FOR THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND A FEW
FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
LUTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL
BE QUIET IN E UPPER AND NC LOWER AS THE 850-700 MB DRY AIR
(RH<20%) MOVES IN. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LES AS EVIDENT IN E LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE GENESIS REGION KEEPS PUSHING SOUTH. MODELS HAVE
COME IN LINE WITH THE DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO LIMIT THE LES ON THE TWO LAKE SHORES. AT THIS
MOMENT, NOT SURE THAT EVERYTHING WILL BE DONE UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A LAND BREEZE NOT ONLY
FROM ONTARIO, THUS THE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER, BUT ALSO
FROM NC LOWER, AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS
AND THE BOUNDARY DECOUPLES. THIS WILL PUSH MOST LES OUT OVER THE
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET.
TUESDAY...AT 12Z, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE FROM THE LEVELS
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CURVATURE BECOMES DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
SO AM EXPECTING THAT ANY LES WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IF NOT DONE.
HOWEVER, AS THE WIND TURNS WEST BY 18Z, THERE MAY BE A LAST
HURRAH, BEFORE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE -13C. SO HAVE
DIMINISHED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE. BY 00Z, THE
THE NAM IS UP TO -10C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GFS AROUND -12C.
SO WITH THE LESS THAN 40% RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL GO WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...A
RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL. A BRIEF
"WARM UP" IS ON THE HORIZON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
RECENT OUTBREAK). THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE
OBVIOUS (POPS AND TEMPS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN EVIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS HOLD ONTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH/EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH ABOUT 80 PERCENT) AND CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART (EXCEPT 10 TO 15 ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR MORE LIKELY
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SPELLS MORE MILD AIR. STILL
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL END UP BEING MOIST ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (-20 TO -25
C) SET TO INVADE THE NORTHWOODS (FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MORE LIKE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY). THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A BURST OF SNOW
WITH THE FRONT. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CHANCES BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESSENED SOME WITH INCREASING ICE COVERAGE.
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OVER THE WEEKEND AND 15 TO 20 ON
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
MODERATING TEMPS SHOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS CANADA WHICH MAY END UP BEING
TAPPED.
SULLIVAN
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 5 TO 10 KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS OF LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK
WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LUTZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 613 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC THRU THE
24 HR TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 192045
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL GENERATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WHILE NORTH WINDS GENERATE LAKE SNOWS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES AT LEAST FOR THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND A FEW
FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
LUTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL
BE QUIET IN E UPPER AND NC LOWER AS THE 850-700 MB DRY AIR
(RH<20%) MOVES IN. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LES AS EVIDENT IN E LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE GENESIS REGION KEEPS PUSHING SOUTH. MODELS HAVE
COME IN LINE WITH THE DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO LIMIT THE LES ON THE TWO LAKE SHORES. AT THIS
MOMENT, NOT SURE THAT EVERYTHING WILL BE DONE UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A LAND BREEZE NOT ONLY
FROM ONTARIO, THUS THE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER, BUT ALSO
FROM NC LOWER, AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS
AND THE BOUNDARY DECOUPLES. THIS WILL PUSH MOST LES OUT OVER THE
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET.
TUESDAY...AT 12Z, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE FROM THE LEVELS
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CURVATURE BECOMES DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
SO AM EXPECTING THAT ANY LES WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IF NOT DONE.
HOWEVER, AS THE WIND TURNS WEST BY 18Z, THERE MAY BE A LAST
HURRAH, BEFORE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE -13C. SO HAVE
DIMINISHED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE. BY 00Z, THE
THE NAM IS UP TO -10C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GFS AROUND -12C.
SO WITH THE LESS THAN 40% RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL GO WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...A
RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL. A BRIEF
"WARM UP" IS ON THE HORIZON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
RECENT OUTBREAK). THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE
OBVIOUS (POPS AND TEMPS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN EVIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS HOLD ONTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH/EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH ABOUT 80 PERCENT) AND CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART (EXCEPT 10 TO 15 ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR MORE LIKELY
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SPELLS MORE MILD AIR. STILL
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL END UP BEING MOIST ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (-20 TO -25
C) SET TO INVADE THE NORTHWOODS (FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MORE LIKE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY). THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A BURST OF SNOW
WITH THE FRONT. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CHANCES BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESSENED SOME WITH INCREASING ICE COVERAGE.
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OVER THE WEEKEND AND 15 TO 20 ON
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
MODERATING TEMPS SHOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS CANADA WHICH MAY END UP BEING
TAPPED.
SULLIVAN
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 5 TO 10 KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS OF LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK
WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LUTZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 306 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
APN...AND TVC. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN.
LUTZ
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 191604
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1038 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON
2 MAIN CONCERNS, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR CHEBOYGAN AND OTSEGO COUNTIES
WITH THE POSSIBLE ICE JAM SITUATION ON THE STURGEON RIVER AND THE
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FIRST THE SNOW. THE NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE -15C 850 MB TEMPERATURES,
THE NORTH FLOW, AND THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH STILL TAPING INTO SOME
60 TO 70% RH AIR. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT FETCH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN, THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF LIGHT AMOUNTS, TO
AN EXTREME, MODERATE. THE BEST SNOW IS AT MID LAKE AND WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN S LOWER AND N INDIANA. ALONG LAKE HURON, THE NORTH TO NNE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NE LOWER WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TODAY AS
WELL.
WITH THE TEMPERATURES SO LOW, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ON
THE RIVERS. THE RIVER GAGE AT WOLVERINE IS JUST AT BANKFULL. IF
THE STAGE GETS MUCH MORE WILL PROBABLY PUT A FLOOD WARNING OUT BY
THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR SOONER, DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS.
LUTZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
PERHAPS THE QUIETEST STRETCH OF WX IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS. UPPER
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY...THOUGH SOME
DEGREE OF RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. SURFACE RIDGING
INITIALLY NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT DOWN ACROSS MI ON
TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...WINDS WILL BACK AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
WILL START WORKING IN. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF AXIS...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME ENERGY UP IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT EARLY ON...AND THAT WEDNESDAY
TROF...ARE THE MAIN PRECIP CONCERNS. TEMPS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE...
POTENTIALLY COLD TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ALMOST SORTA KINDA MILD BY
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS...THE DETAILS DEFINITELY START GETTING A LITTLE FUZZY BY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
COMPRISING THE LARGER EASTERN N.A. UPPER TROF. WE/RE IN BETWEEN THE
BIG WX MAKERS...BUT PREFER THE NAM IN BRINGING A SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE OVER OUR HEADS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...A WOBBLE BACK TO NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE EVENING...AND
BACK TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING...
AS 850-700MB RH LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS REFLECTS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD PLACES AS TODAY...BUT CHOP SNOW AMOUNTS IN HALF THANKS TO
THE DRYING TREND. SO UP TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND LOCALLY COLD
TEMPS. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE MINS...MAINLY 0 TO 10 BELOW EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...UP TO 10 ABOVE ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...THE PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK WINDS TO
WEST...WITH MOST OF THE SWING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
GIVE US A CHANCE TO DISTRIBUTE LIGHT LES TO A FEW MORE PLACES...AT
LEAST BEFORE WARMER TEMPS PUT THE KIBOSH ON LAKE EFFECT. 850MB ARE
RISING TO -10C TOWARD EVENING...SO IT WON/T BE UNTIL EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WANES ENOUGH TO PUT ANY LAKE EFFECT AT RISK. FOR THE
MORNING...IT WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME OLD SAME OLD (SOUTH OF
LEELANAU AND ROGERS CITY)...WITH PERHAPS MORE OF WESTERN CHIPPEWA
GETTING INTO THE MIX AS WINDS BACK THERE 1ST. FOR AFTERNOON...WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE N TO W SNOWBELTS...
BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. DO NOT TRUST THE
GFS...WHICH LOOKS WAY TOO MOIST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL WIMP OUT WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
VERY LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DROP DOWN TOWARD APN WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP POPS CHANCY FOR NOW. BEHIND THAT...THE LOW LEVELS BELOW THE
900MB INVERSION BECOME PRETTY SOUPY. SO EXPECT PRETTY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES ABOVE THE INVERSION...TO THE POINT WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW...AS WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER IS STILL RATHER SMALL. TEMPS WILL BE
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TUE NIGHT...LEADING US TO HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY.
JZ
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO RETREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZ
DRIZZLE/FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD SNOW PACK. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS IDEA HOWEVER...AND
WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DEBATE THIS ISSUE. OTHERWISE...ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 10-20KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS OF
LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE TO COME UP JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 620 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
APN...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TVC. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY
CLEAR OF PLN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-022.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 191119
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
620 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TODAY
1003MB SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OF SUPERIOR. COLD
NORTHERLY 1000-850MB WINDS ARE PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EXPECTED PLACES...NEAR LAKE MI FROM LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD...
AND IN NE LOWER MI. EASTERN UPPER MI IS QUIET. SNOW TRENDS (SUCH AS
THEY ARE) COMPRISE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY.
THOSE TRENDS WILL BE LARGELY FLATLINED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL DRIFT TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST COAST. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WOBBLE AROUND JUST A BIT...BETWEEN 350 AND 020. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR -15/16C. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL STAY JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/FORCING...WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF WI WESTERN
UPPER MI AND WI TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER US.
SO TODAY IS LARGELY A STEADY-AS-SHE-GOES FORECAST. LOCAL 1-2 INCH
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND FROM ROGERS CITY
TO TAWAS. MAINLY FLURRIES OR LESS ELSEWHERE...WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING (WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS IN THE
AFTERNOON). MAX TEMPS DID A BIT BETTER THAN I EXPECTED YESTERDAY...
AND WITH THAT IN MIND WILL GO NEAR OR A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
READINGS MAINLY MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
JZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
PERHAPS THE QUIETEST STRETCH OF WX IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS. UPPER
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY...THOUGH SOME
DEGREE OF RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. SURFACE RIDGING
INITIALLY NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT DOWN ACROSS MI ON
TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...WINDS WILL BACK AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
WILL START WORKING IN. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF AXIS...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME ENERGY UP IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT EARLY ON...AND THAT WEDNESDAY
TROF...ARE THE MAIN PRECIP CONCERNS. TEMPS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE...
POTENTIALLY COLD TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ALMOST SORTA KINDA MILD BY
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS...THE DETAILS DEFINITELY START GETTING A LITTLE FUZZY BY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
COMPRISING THE LARGER EASTERN N.A. UPPER TROF. WE/RE IN BETWEEN THE
BIG WX MAKERS...BUT PREFER THE NAM IN BRINGING A SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE OVER OUR HEADS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...A WOBBLE BACK TO NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE EVENING...AND
BACK TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING...
AS 850-700MB RH LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS REFLECTS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD PLACES AS TODAY...BUT CHOP SNOW AMOUNTS IN HALF THANKS TO
THE DRYING TREND. SO UP TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND LOCALLY COLD
TEMPS. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE MINS...MAINLY 0 TO 10 BELOW EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...UP TO 10 ABOVE ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...THE PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK WINDS TO
WEST...WITH MOST OF THE SWING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
GIVE US A CHANCE TO DISTRIBUTE LIGHT LES TO A FEW MORE PLACES...AT
LEAST BEFORE WARMER TEMPS PUT THE KIBOSH ON LAKE EFFECT. 850MB ARE
RISING TO -10C TOWARD EVENING...SO IT WON/T BE UNTIL EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WANES ENOUGH TO PUT ANY LAKE EFFECT AT RISK. FOR THE
MORNING...IT WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME OLD SAME OLD (SOUTH OF
LEELANAU AND ROGERS CITY)...WITH PERHAPS MORE OF WESTERN CHIPPEWA
GETTING INTO THE MIX AS WINDS BACK THERE 1ST. FOR AFTERNOON...WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE N TO W SNOWBELTS...
BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. DO NOT TRUST THE
GFS...WHICH LOOKS WAY TOO MOIST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL WIMP OUT WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
VERY LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DROP DOWN TOWARD APN WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP POPS CHANCY FOR NOW. BEHIND THAT...THE LOW LEVELS BELOW THE
900MB INVERSION BECOME PRETTY SOUPY. SO EXPECT PRETTY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES ABOVE THE INVERSION...TO THE POINT WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW...AS WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER IS STILL RATHER SMALL. TEMPS WILL BE
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TUE NIGHT...LEADING US TO HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY.
JZ
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO RETREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZ
DRIZZLE/FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD SNOWPACK. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS IDEA HOWEVER...AND
WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DEBATE THIS ISSUE. OTHERWISE...ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 10-20KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS OF
LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE TO COME UP JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 620 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
APN...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TVC. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY
CLEAR OF PLN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 190829
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TODAY
1003MB SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OF SUPERIOR. COLD
NORTHERLY 1000-850MB WINDS ARE PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EXPECTED PLACES...NEAR LAKE MI FROM LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD...
AND IN NE LOWER MI. EASTERN UPPER MI IS QUIET. SNOW TRENDS (SUCH AS
THEY ARE) COMPRISE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY.
THOSE TRENDS WILL BE LARGELY FLATLINED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL DRIFT TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST COAST. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
WOBBLE AROUND JUST A BIT...BETWEEN 350 AND 020. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR -15/16C. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL STAY JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/FORCING...WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF WI WESTERN
UPPER MI AND WI TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER US.
SO TODAY IS LARGELY A STEADY-AS-SHE-GOES FORECAST. LOCAL 1-2 INCH
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND FROM ROGERS CITY
TO TAWAS. MAINLY FLURRIES OR LESS ELSEWHERE...WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING (WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS IN THE
AFTERNOON). MAX TEMPS DID A BIT BETTER THAN I EXPECTED YESTERDAY...
AND WITH THAT IN MIND WILL GO NEAR OR A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
READINGS MAINLY MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
JZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
PERHAPS THE QUIETEST STRETCH OF WX IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS. UPPER
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY...THOUGH SOME
DEGREE OF RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. SURFACE RIDGING
INITIALLY NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT DOWN ACROSS MI ON
TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...WINDS WILL BACK AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
WILL START WORKING IN. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF AXIS...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME ENERGY UP IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT EARLY ON...AND THAT WEDNESDAY
TROF...ARE THE MAIN PRECIP CONCERNS. TEMPS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE...
POTENTIALLY COLD TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ALMOST SORTA KINDA MILD BY
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS...THE DETAILS DEFINITELY START GETTING A LITTLE FUZZY BY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
COMPRISING THE LARGER EASTERN N.A. UPPER TROF. WE/RE IN BETWEEN THE
BIG WX MAKERS...BUT PREFER THE NAM IN BRINGING A SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE OVER OUR HEADS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...A WOBBLE BACK TO NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE EVENING...AND
BACK TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING...
AS 850-700MB RH LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS REFLECTS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD PLACES AS TODAY...BUT CHOP SNOW AMOUNTS IN HALF THANKS TO
THE DRYING TREND. SO UP TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND LOCALLY COLD
TEMPS. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE MINS...MAINLY 0 TO 10 BELOW EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...UP TO 10 ABOVE ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...THE PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK WINDS TO
WEST...WITH MOST OF THE SWING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
GIVE US A CHANCE TO DISTRIBUTE LIGHT LES TO A FEW MORE PLACES...AT
LEAST BEFORE WARMER TEMPS PUT THE KIBOSH ON LAKE EFFECT. 850MB ARE
RISING TO -10C TOWARD EVENING...SO IT WON/T BE UNTIL EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WANES ENOUGH TO PUT ANY LAKE EFFECT AT RISK. FOR THE
MORNING...IT WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME OLD SAME OLD (SOUTH OF
LEELANAU AND ROGERS CITY)...WITH PERHAPS MORE OF WESTERN CHIPPEWA
GETTING INTO THE MIX AS WINDS BACK THERE 1ST. FOR AFTERNOON...WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE N TO W SNOWBELTS...
BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. DO NOT TRUST THE
GFS...WHICH LOOKS WAY TOO MOIST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL WIMP OUT WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
VERY LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DROP DOWN TOWARD APN WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP POPS CHANCY FOR NOW. BEHIND THAT...THE LOW LEVELS BELOW THE
900MB INVERSION BECOME PRETTY SOUPY. SO EXPECT PRETTY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES ABOVE THE INVERSION...TO THE POINT WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW...AS WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER IS STILL RATHER SMALL. TEMPS WILL BE
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TUE NIGHT...LEADING US TO HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY.
JZ
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO RETREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZ
DRIZZLE/FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD SNOWPACK. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS IDEA HOWEVER...AND
WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DEBATE THIS ISSUE. OTHERWISE...ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
NORTH WINDS NEAR 10-20KT AND ASSOCIATED 2-4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS OF
LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE TO COME UP JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK WEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1145 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY EVENING. GREATEST SNOW SHOWER
CONCENTRATION WILL BE IN NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
FROM TVC WEST TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. MUCH OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WHERE SOLID VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 190446
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST BY
RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1003 PM/...OVERNIGHT
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT TARGETING THE LAKE HURON
AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE DIRECTION OF STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
LIGHT THIS EVENING...WITH EVEN THE SHORELINE AREAS ONLY RECEIVING
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY (DELTA T`S
IN THE UPPER TEENS) REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE CONTRIBUTION...AND
WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...
DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO AROUND
850 MB. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE GROWING ICE COVERAGE AROUND
AND NORTH OF BEAVER ISLAND AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINES...
SERVING TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH AND THUS
AVAILABLE HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUX. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THRU MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX...POPS...SNOWFALL AND SKY COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE MAIN SFC LOW SINKS
SOUTH INTO S LOWER. DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER) GETS ENTRAINED AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW AND DRIES OUT THE CENTER OF THE STATE. TRIED TO NOT
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE, THE SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE. NE LOWER SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DIES OUT TO LESS
THAN 30% IN E UPPER AND MOST OF N LOWER THE NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AT
LEAST THE SCATTERED WORDING. IN E UPPER, THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
BETTER THAN 50% AND WITH THE N FLOW STILL GOING, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SOME SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE NW FLOW LES AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HANGING AROUND -15C. TRIED TO REDUCED SOME OF
THE POPS IN NW LOWER AS THE ICE COVER WILL START TO AFFECT THE SNOW
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR (SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T
SEEN IN A WHILE) WILL THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C,
GETTING INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN E UPPER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF N LOWER AND E UPPER ARE IN THE CLEAR AS THE
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 40%, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8C ON THE GFS, AND 0C ON THE NAM, WHICH MEANS NO
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE, THE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE POPS THERE, BUT WILL
WHITTLE THEM AWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO E UPPER OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER THAN
-13C.
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)...THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
IN E UPPER, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN
THE EVENING. THE SNOW RETURNS TO THE WHOLE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN
-10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. TRIED TO START CUTTING BACK
THE SNOW A BIT BASED ON THE ICE COVERAGE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE MORE
ICE TO CONTEND WITH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LES.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1145 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY EVENING. GREATEST SNOW SHOWER
CONCENTRATION WILL BE IN NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
FROM TVC WEST TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. MUCH OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WHERE SOLID VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 190304
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST BY
RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1003 PM/...OVERNIGHT
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT TARGETING THE LAKE HURON
AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE DIRECTION OF STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
LIGHT THIS EVENING...WITH EVEN THE SHORELINE AREAS ONLY RECEIVING
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY (DELTA T`S
IN THE UPPER TEENS) REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE CONTRIBUTION...AND
WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...
DROPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO AROUND
850 MB. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE GROWING ICE COVERAGE AROUND
AND NORTH OF BEAVER ISLAND AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINES...
SERVING TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH AND THUS
AVAILABLE HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUX. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THRU MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX...POPS...SNOWFALL AND SKY COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE MAIN SFC LOW SINKS
SOUTH INTO S LOWER. DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER) GETS ENTRAINED AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW AND DRIES OUT THE CENTER OF THE STATE. TRIED TO NOT
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE, THE SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE. NE LOWER SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DIES OUT TO LESS
THAN 30% IN E UPPER AND MOST OF N LOWER THE NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AT
LEAST THE SCATTERED WORDING. IN E UPPER, THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
BETTER THAN 50% AND WITH THE N FLOW STILL GOING, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SOME SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE NW FLOW LES AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HANGING AROUND -15C. TRIED TO REDUCED SOME OF
THE POPS IN NW LOWER AS THE ICE COVER WILL START TO AFFECT THE SNOW
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR (SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T
SEEN IN A WHILE) WILL THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C,
GETTING INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN E UPPER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF N LOWER AND E UPPER ARE IN THE CLEAR AS THE
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 40%, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8C ON THE GFS, AND 0C ON THE NAM, WHICH MEANS NO
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE, THE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE POPS THERE, BUT WILL
WHITTLE THEM AWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO E UPPER OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER THAN
-13C.
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)...THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
IN E UPPER, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN
THE EVENING. THE SNOW RETURNS TO THE WHOLE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN
-10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. TRIED TO START CUTTING BACK
THE SNOW A BIT BASED ON THE ICE COVERAGE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE MORE
ICE TO CONTEND WITH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LES.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 611 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. GREATEST SNOW SHOWER CONCENTRATION
WILL BE IN NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) AND NW LWR MICHIGAN FROM TVC WEST
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WHERE SOLID VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 182311
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
611 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST BY
RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...TONIGHT
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A SEMI-PERMANENT
FIXTURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TODAY. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHES BACK INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL (H9-H8) ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOSING DOWN THROUGH
NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. HAD BEEN A BEEFIER LAKE
BAND CAUGHT UP IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND AROUND 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS. FORTUNATELY THIS BAND
WAS TRANSIENT AND HAS SINCE DROPPED INTO THE SAGINAW BAY AREA.
ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO THE NORTH
WITH SOME HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS IMPACTING AREAS AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION DURING THE DAY. RECEIVED ONE SPOTTER REPORT OF
AROUND 3 INCHES IN LEELANAU COUNTY TODAY UNDER THESE BANDS WHICH
BRINGS HEADLINE POSSIBILITIES BACK INTO THE PICTURE (MORE ON THIS
BELOW).
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AXIS EXPECTED TO
SWING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACTIVITY IN THE EAST. WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERALL NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT WHICH
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY BIG LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF LAKE HURON IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR WEST AS
I-75 WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE SHORELINE. BUT
ALL-IN-ALL NOT A BIG DEAL.
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...A NEARLY STEADY STATE NORTH FLOW
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AND WITH DELTA T/S
RUNNING IN THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20C RANGE RAISES CONCERNS FOR SOME
HEALTHIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUING OVER THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH A SPOTTER REPORTING AROUND
3 INCHES ALREADY. HOWEVER...FLARE UP IN LAKE EFFECT MAY HAVE BEEN
HELPED ALONG BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOW EXITING THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
REVEALING WEDGE OF DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAKE BANDS SHRINKING N-S AS A RESULT. SEE NO BIG
KICKER UPSTREAM TO GET THINGS GOING AND IN FACT GRADUAL DRYING AND
LOWERING INVERSIONS LOOK TO BE THE RULE. SO...WILL SOMEWHAT
RELUCTANTLY HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES FOR THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION TONIGHT WITH THE IDEA THAT BEST OF THE SNOWFALL
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. EVENING SHIFT WILL OF COURSE NEED TO WATCH
THIS.
OTHERWISE...WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE OF DRIER AIR GRADUALLY NOSING
DOWN INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT TO
VARYING DEGREES FROM EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH
SO SO ALLOW INTERIOR TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE MAIN SFC LOW SINKS
SOUTH INTO S LOWER. DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER) GETS ENTRAINED AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW AND DRIES OUT THE CENTER OF THE STATE. TRIED TO NOT
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE, THE SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE. NE LOWER SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DIES OUT TO LESS
THAN 30% IN E UPPER AND MOST OF N LOWER THE NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AT
LEAST THE SCATTERED WORDING. IN E UPPER, THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
BETTER THAN 50% AND WITH THE N FLOW STILL GOING, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SOME SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE NW FLOW LES AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HANGING AROUND -15C. TRIED TO REDUCED SOME OF
THE POPS IN NW LOWER AS THE ICE COVER WILL START TO AFFECT THE SNOW
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR (SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T
SEEN IN A WHILE) WILL THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C,
GETTING INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN E UPPER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF N LOWER AND E UPPER ARE IN THE CLEAR AS THE
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 40%, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8C ON THE GFS, AND 0C ON THE NAM, WHICH MEANS NO
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE, THE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE POPS THERE, BUT WILL
WHITTLE THEM AWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO E UPPER OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER THAN
-13C.
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)...THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
IN E UPPER, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN
THE EVENING. THE SNOW RETURNS TO THE WHOLE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN
-10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. TRIED TO START CUTTING BACK
THE SNOW A BIT BASED ON THE ICE COVERAGE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE MORE
ICE TO CONTEND WITH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LES.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 611 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. GREATEST SNOW SHOWER CONCENTRATION
WILL BE IN NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) AND NW LWR MICHIGAN FROM TVC WEST
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL STAY CLEAR OF PLN...WHERE SOLID VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 182059
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST BY
RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...TONIGHT
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A SEMI-PERMANENT
FIXTURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TODAY. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHES BACK INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL (H9-H8) ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOSING DOWN THROUGH
NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN. HAD BEEN A BEEFIER LAKE
BAND CAUGHT UP IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND AROUND 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS. FORTUNATELY THIS BAND
WAS TRANSIENT AND HAS SINCE DROPPED INTO THE SAGINAW BAY AREA.
ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO THE NORTH
WITH SOME HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS IMPACTING AREAS AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION DURING THE DAY. RECEIVED ONE SPOTTER REPORT OF
AROUND 3 INCHES IN LEELANAU COUNTY TODAY UNDER THESE BANDS WHICH
BRINGS HEADLINE POSSIBILITIES BACK INTO THE PICTURE (MORE ON THIS
BELOW).
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AXIS EXPECTED TO
SWING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACTIVITY IN THE EAST. WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERALL NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT WHICH
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY BIG LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF LAKE HURON IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR WEST AS
I-75 WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE SHORELINE. BUT
ALL-IN-ALL NOT A BIG DEAL.
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...A NEARLY STEADY STATE NORTH FLOW
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AND WITH DELTA T/S
RUNNING IN THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20C RANGE RAISES CONCERNS FOR SOME
HEALTHIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUING OVER THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH A SPOTTER REPORTING AROUND
3 INCHES ALREADY. HOWEVER...FLARE UP IN LAKE EFFECT MAY HAVE BEEN
HELPED ALONG BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOW EXITING THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
REVEALING WEDGE OF DRIER AIR NOSING DOWN ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAKE BANDS SHRINKING N-S AS A RESULT. SEE NO BIG
KICKER UPSTREAM TO GET THINGS GOING AND IN FACT GRADUAL DRYING AND
LOWERING INVERSIONS LOOK TO BE THE RULE. SO...WILL SOMEWHAT
RELUCTANTLY HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES FOR THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION TONIGHT WITH THE IDEA THAT BEST OF THE SNOWFALL
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. EVENING SHIFT WILL OF COURSE NEED TO WATCH
THIS.
OTHERWISE...WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE OF DRIER AIR GRADUALLY NOSING
DOWN INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT TO
VARYING DEGREES FROM EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH
SO SO ALLOW INTERIOR TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE MAIN SFC LOW SINKS
SOUTH INTO S LOWER. DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER) GETS ENTRAINED AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW AND DRIES OUT THE CENTER OF THE STATE. TRIED TO NOT
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE, THE SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE. NE LOWER SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DIES OUT TO LESS
THAN 30% IN E UPPER AND MOST OF N LOWER THE NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AT
LEAST THE SCATTERED WORDING. IN E UPPER, THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
BETTER THAN 50% AND WITH THE N FLOW STILL GOING, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SOME SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE NW FLOW LES AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HANGING AROUND -15C. TRIED TO REDUCED SOME OF
THE POPS IN NW LOWER AS THE ICE COVER WILL START TO AFFECT THE SNOW
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR (SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T
SEEN IN A WHILE) WILL THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C,
GETTING INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN E UPPER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF N LOWER AND E UPPER ARE IN THE CLEAR AS THE
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 40%, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8C ON THE GFS, AND 0C ON THE NAM, WHICH MEANS NO
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE, THE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE POPS THERE, BUT WILL
WHITTLE THEM AWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO E UPPER OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER THAN
-13C.
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)...THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
IN E UPPER, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN
THE EVENING. THE SNOW RETURNS TO THE WHOLE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN
-10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. TRIED TO START CUTTING BACK
THE SNOW A BIT BASED ON THE ICE COVERAGE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE MORE
ICE TO CONTEND WITH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LES.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 359 PM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 112 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
NORTH FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS AT THE TERMINAL SITES AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AT PLN THIS EVENING AS WEDGE OF DRIER AIR SLIDES
DOWN FROM ONTARIO. ON MONDAY...NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY AT TVC AND APN.
ADAM
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 181812
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
112 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHER LAKE HURON
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ENDING...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTLINE THRU
MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST
BY RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
JZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1020 AM/...TODAY
PER 14Z SFC ANALYSIS...1004 MB STACKED LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...WHILE ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHES BACK ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN. 06Z/12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTS SUBTLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW AND WEAKISH LOW LEVEL
(H9-H8) ISENTROPIC ASCENT ONGOING ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...CERTAINLY ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND SLIDING DOWN ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE LAKE
CONVECTION AND TERRAIN ELEMENTS THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND MORE
NORTHERLY WITH SOME LAKE BANDING IMPACTING AREAS AROUND GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY TO MANISTEE. NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY SNOW THERE ALTHOUGH
VSBYS AT KFKS HAVE DIPPED TO 1 1/2SM THIS PAST HOUR. QUIET IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING DESPITE THE ANJ ASOS REPORTING
UNKNOWN PRECIP FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS.
REST OF TODAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS TAPER
OFF. WITH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
HAVE BEEN SLIDING THROUGH NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND TERRAIN BOOST.
FORTUNATELY HEAVIER ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSIENT BRINGING ABOUT AN HOUR OF HEAVIER SNOW IN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR AREA. DO PLAN ON HAVING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
TODAY FOR A PORTION OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN ACCOUNTING FOR THOSE
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES.
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH FLOW BACKING NORTH PLAN ON HAVING
HIGH POPS FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH TO MANISTEE. WITH PLENTY OF
OVER WATER INSTABILITY (DELTA T/S NEAR 20C)/SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE NUDGED UP ACCUMULATIONS TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN
THAT AREA TODAY. BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE CONDITIONS AM WORRIED THAT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD GO HIGHER. ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF
THE LAKE MIGHT LIMIT THE FETCH ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK. BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE EASTERN LAKES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY PLUNGING
OVERHEAD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL FILL...THOUGH TROFFING WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM
THE SW...IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER NEAR THE SW SHORE OF HUDSON BAY.
ALL IN ALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WX FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES ARE THE USUAL MAIN CONCERNS.
MODELS...NAM/GFS ARE QUITE SURPRISINGLY MOSTLY ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI
ON ITS WAY SOUTH.
TONIGHT...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM NNE TO N. SOME DRYING WORKS
ACROSS EASTERN SUPERIOR (850-700MB RH TO 35 PERCENT BY 12Z) AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN LAKE MI (50 PERCENT). 850MB TEMPS ACTUALLY
RECOVER A TINY BIT...TO AROUND -16C BY 12Z. MOISTURE IS STILL
HOLDING ON IN THE EAST. LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND ROGER CITY TO
OSCODA... SHOULD AGAIN BE THE AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GO 1-2 INCHES IN THE FORMER AND 1-3 IN THE LATTER. IN EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THE COASTS WILL BE AS
WARM AS 10 ABOVE.
MONDAY...ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO WI...WITH THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE/BETTER FORCING STAYING JUST TO OUR WEST. WEDGE OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER AND N CENTRAL
LOWER MI...WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL STUBBORNLY CLINGING TO THE
HURON COAST. A NORTH TO BORDERLINE NNE 1000-850MB MEAN WIND
CONTINUES UNABATED. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAME PLACES...BUT
TAKE ACCUMS ANOTHER STEP DOWN...TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AS
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST BLASTS SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DRYING
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO WEST ON TUESDAY...
USHERING IN WARM ADVECTION...AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO THE LOWER
MINUS TEENS. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE COMMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO CLIPPER WILL BE NEARING EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE
WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD COASTAL PLACES MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS PASS THRU A MORE TRADITIONAL NW FETCH. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR. WILL LOWER EASTERN UPPER
AND THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH
THE COASTS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
JZ
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT EACH MODEL HAS DISAGREEMENTS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE (SOME ARE WEST OF HERE
AND OTHERS ARE EAST). THUS...GOING TO TRY AND JUST SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS
TO DO BETTER AT THIS TIME RANGE. OTHERWISE...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO BE MORE DELAYED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
THUS...THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20KT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
JZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 112 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
NORTH FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS AT THE TERMINAL SITES AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AT PLN THIS EVENING AS WEDGE OF DRIER AIR SLIDES
DOWN FROM ONTARIO. ON MONDAY...NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY AT TVC AND APN.
ADAM
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 181521
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHER LAKE HURON
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ENDING...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTLINE THRU
MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST
BY RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
JZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1020 AM/...TODAY
PER 14Z SFC ANALYSIS...1004 MB STACKED LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...WHILE ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHES BACK ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN. 06Z/12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTS SUBTLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW AND WEAKISH LOW LEVEL
(H9-H8) ISENTROPIC ASCENT ONGOING ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...CERTAINLY ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND SLIDING DOWN ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE LAKE
CONVECTION AND TERRAIN ELEMENTS THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND MORE
NORTHERLY WITH SOME LAKE BANDING IMPACTING AREAS AROUND GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY TO MANISTEE. NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY SNOW THERE ALTHOUGH
VSBYS AT KFKS HAVE DIPPED TO 1 1/2SM THIS PAST HOUR. QUIET IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING DESPITE THE ANJ ASOS REPORTING
UNKNOWN PRECIP FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS.
REST OF TODAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS TAPER
OFF. WITH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
HAVE BEEN SLIDING THROUGH NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND TERRAIN BOOST.
FORTUNATELY HEAVIER ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSIENT BRINGING ABOUT AN HOUR OF HEAVIER SNOW IN ANY ONE
PARTICULAR AREA. DO PLAN ON HAVING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
TODAY FOR A PORTION OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN ACCOUNTING FOR THOSE
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES.
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH FLOW BACKING NORTH PLAN ON HAVING
HIGH POPS FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH TO MANISTEE. WITH PLENTY OF
OVER WATER INSTABILITY (DELTA T/S NEAR 20C)/SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE NUDGED UP ACCUMULATIONS TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN
THAT AREA TODAY. BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE CONDITIONS AM WORRIED THAT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD GO HIGHER. ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF
THE LAKE MIGHT LIMIT THE FETCH ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK. BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE EASTERN LAKES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY PLUNGING
OVERHEAD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL FILL...THOUGH TROFFING WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM
THE SW...IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER NEAR THE SW SHORE OF HUDSON BAY.
ALL IN ALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WX FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES ARE THE USUAL MAIN CONCERNS.
MODELS...NAM/GFS ARE QUITE SURPRISINGLY MOSTLY ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI
ON ITS WAY SOUTH.
TONIGHT...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM NNE TO N. SOME DRYING WORKS
ACROSS EASTERN SUPERIOR (850-700MB RH TO 35 PERCENT BY 12Z) AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN LAKE MI (50 PERCENT). 850MB TEMPS ACTUALLY
RECOVER A TINY BIT...TO AROUND -16C BY 12Z. MOISTURE IS STILL
HOLDING ON IN THE EAST. LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND ROGER CITY TO
OSCODA... SHOULD AGAIN BE THE AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GO 1-2 INCHES IN THE FORMER AND 1-3 IN THE LATTER. IN EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THE COASTS WILL BE AS
WARM AS 10 ABOVE.
MONDAY...ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO WI...WITH THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE/BETTER FORCING STAYING JUST TO OUR WEST. WEDGE OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER AND N CENTRAL
LOWER MI...WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL STUBBORNLY CLINGING TO THE
HURON COAST. A NORTH TO BORDERLINE NNE 1000-850MB MEAN WIND
CONTINUES UNABATED. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAME PLACES...BUT
TAKE ACCUMS ANOTHER STEP DOWN...TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AS
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST BLASTS SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DRYING
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO WEST ON TUESDAY...
USHERING IN WARM ADVECTION...AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO THE LOWER
MINUS TEENS. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE COMMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO CLIPPER WILL BE NEARING EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE
WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD COASTAL PLACES MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS PASS THRU A MORE TRADITIONAL NW FETCH. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR. WILL LOWER EASTERN UPPER
AND THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH
THE COASTS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
JZ
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT EACH MODEL HAS DISAGREEMENTS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE (SOME ARE WEST OF HERE
AND OTHERS ARE EAST). THUS...GOING TO TRY AND JUST SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS
TO DO BETTER AT THIS TIME RANGE. OTHERWISE...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO BE MORE DELAYED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
THUS...THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20KT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
JZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 630 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS DEPARTED...WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON AND DRIFTING EAST. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AT APN. PLUME OF DECENT SNOW IS NOW ABOUT 25SM
NORTH OF APN...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. TVC WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT ONLY DROPPING TO LOW-END MVFR. PLN...OTHER THAN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES.
JZ
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 181129
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHER LAKE HURON
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ENDING...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTLINE THRU
MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST
BY RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
JZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TODAY
SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN MI. AS FOR LAKE
EFFECT...WELL...WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE MONTHS OF THAT TO DEAL WITH.
SLOW-MOVING 1004MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR SAGINAW BAY...WITH
ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
SNOW TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS MAIN CONCERN TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY
TODAY...STACKED WITH THE 500MB LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AS SOME ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST COAST. AS THE
LOW DRIFTS AWAY... WE/LL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH A MORE UNIFORM N TO NNE
1000-850MB FLOW. HOWEVER...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY.
UNTIL THEN...A WIDE VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS WILL PROVIDE A
COMPLEX MIX OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT REGIMES. 850MB
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER MINUS TEENS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...AND 850-700MB RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 80
PERCENT.
FOR EASTERN UPPER...THINGS ARE RELATIVELY SIMPLE. WINDS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BACKING EAST...WHICH WILL CUT OFF ALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD ICE COVER ON THE NORTH CHANNEL AND WHITEFISH
BAY. A STEADY BACKING TO NNE WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS A
UNEVENTFUL FETCH WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPING...AND WOULD EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES (EXCEPT NEAR
DRUMMOND ISL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WILL CERTAINLY LET ADVISORIES
EXPIRE HERE.
FOR NORTHERN LOWER...IT/S WAY MORE COMPLICATED. THE FAR SW COASTAL
ZONES (LEELANAU SOUTHWARD) ARE GOING TO HAVE LAKE EFFECT ISSUES ALL
DAY...EVEN AS WINDS VEER FROM THE CURRENT NW TO NNE. THE WESTERN
PART OF THE INTERIOR (ROUGHLY THE M-66 CORRIDOR) SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET ALL DAY (MUCH LIKE EASTERN UPPER). I-75 FROM INDIAN
RIVER TO HTL WILL SEE SNOW THIS MORNING THANKS TO NE FLOW FROM
HURON. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK N/NNE THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA SHOULD
ALSO QUIET DOWN. PLACES NEAR/EAST OF M-33 WILL SEE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL HAVE LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST
FROM THE DUNES SOUTHWARD...THE AREA MOST EXPOSED TO THE VARIETY OF
NORTHERLY FETCHES TODAY. WILL GO 1 TO 3 ALONG THE HURON COAST FROM
ROGERS CITY TO TAWAS...HIGHEST NEAR APN AND ROGERS CITY. HEADLINES
CAN TENTATIVELY GO AWAY HERE AS WELL.
WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...AND GO MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
JZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE EASTERN LAKES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY PLUNGING
OVERHEAD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL FILL...THOUGH TROFFING WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM
THE SW...IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER NEAR THE SW SHORE OF HUDSON BAY.
ALL IN ALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WX FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES ARE THE USUAL MAIN CONCERNS.
MODELS...NAM/GFS ARE QUITE SURPRISINGLY MOSTLY ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI
ON ITS WAY SOUTH.
TONIGHT...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM NNE TO N. SOME DRYING WORKS
ACROSS EASTERN SUPERIOR (850-700MB RH TO 35 PERCENT BY 12Z) AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN LAKE MI (50 PERCENT). 850MB TEMPS ACTUALLY
RECOVER A TINY BIT...TO AROUND -16C BY 12Z. MOISTURE IS STILL
HOLDING ON IN THE EAST. LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND ROGER CITY TO
OSCODA... SHOULD AGAIN BE THE AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GO 1-2 INCHES IN THE FORMER AND 1-3 IN THE LATTER. IN EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THE COASTS WILL BE AS
WARM AS 10 ABOVE.
MONDAY...ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO WI...WITH THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE/BETTER FORCING STAYING JUST TO OUR WEST. WEDGE OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER AND N CENTRAL
LOWER MI...WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL STUBBORNLY CLINGING TO THE
HURON COAST. A NORTH TO BORDERLINE NNE 1000-850MB MEAN WIND
CONTINUES UNABATED. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAME PLACES...BUT
TAKE ACCUMS ANOTHER STEP DOWN...TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AS
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST BLASTS SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DRYING
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO WEST ON TUESDAY...
USHERING IN WARM ADVECTION...AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO THE LOWER
MINUS TEENS. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE COMMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO CLIPPER WILL BE NEARING EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE
WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD COASTAL PLACES MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS PASS THRU A MORE TRADITIONAL NW FETCH. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR. WILL LOWER EASTERN UPPER
AND THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH
THE COASTS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
JZ
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT EACH MODEL HAS DISAGREEMENTS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE (SOME ARE WEST OF HERE
AND OTHERS ARE EAST). THUS...GOING TO TRY AND JUST SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS
TO DO BETTER AT THIS TIME RANGE. OTHERWISE...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO BE MORE DELAYED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
THUS...THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20KT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
JZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 630 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS DEPARTED...WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON AND DRIFTING EAST. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AT APN. PLUME OF DECENT SNOW IS NOW ABOUT 25SM
NORTH OF APN...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. TVC WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT ONLY DROPPING TO LOW-END MVFR. PLN...OTHER THAN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES.
JZ
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180841
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
341 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHER LAKE HURON
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ENDING...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTLINE THRU
MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST
BY RECENT STANDARDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
JZ
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TODAY
SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN MI. AS FOR LAKE
EFFECT...WELL...WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE MONTHS OF THAT TO DEAL WITH.
SLOW-MOVING 1004MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR SAGINAW BAY...WITH
ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
SNOW TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS MAIN CONCERN TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY
TODAY...STACKED WITH THE 500MB LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AS SOME ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE EAST COAST. AS THE
LOW DRIFTS AWAY... WE/LL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH A MORE UNIFORM N TO NNE
1000-850MB FLOW. HOWEVER...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY.
UNTIL THEN...A WIDE VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS WILL PROVIDE A
COMPLEX MIX OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT REGIMES. 850MB
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER MINUS TEENS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...AND 850-700MB RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 80
PERCENT.
FOR EASTERN UPPER...THINGS ARE RELATIVELY SIMPLE. WINDS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BACKING EAST...WHICH WILL CUT OFF ALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD ICE COVER ON THE NORTH CHANNEL AND WHITEFISH
BAY. A STEADY BACKING TO NNE WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS A
UNEVENTFUL FETCH WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPING...AND WOULD EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES (EXCEPT NEAR
DRUMMOND ISL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WILL CERTAINLY LET ADVISORIES
EXPIRE HERE.
FOR NORTHERN LOWER...IT/S WAY MORE COMPLICATED. THE FAR SW COASTAL
ZONES (LEELANAU SOUTHWARD) ARE GOING TO HAVE LAKE EFFECT ISSUES ALL
DAY...EVEN AS WINDS VEER FROM THE CURRENT NW TO NNE. THE WESTERN
PART OF THE INTERIOR (ROUGHLY THE M-66 CORRIDOR) SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET ALL DAY (MUCH LIKE EASTERN UPPER). I-75 FROM INDIAN
RIVER TO HTL WILL SEE SNOW THIS MORNING THANKS TO NE FLOW FROM
HURON. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK N/NNE THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA SHOULD
ALSO QUIET DOWN. PLACES NEAR/EAST OF M-33 WILL SEE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL HAVE LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST
FROM THE DUNES SOUTHWARD...THE AREA MOST EXPOSED TO THE VARIETY OF
NORTHERLY FETCHES TODAY. WILL GO 1 TO 3 ALONG THE HURON COAST FROM
ROGERS CITY TO TAWAS...HIGHEST NEAR APN AND ROGERS CITY. HEADLINES
CAN TENTATIVELY GO AWAY HERE AS WELL.
WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...AND GO MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
JZ
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE EASTERN LAKES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY PLUNGING
OVERHEAD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL FILL...THOUGH TROFFING WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM
THE SW...IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER NEAR THE SW SHORE OF HUDSON BAY.
ALL IN ALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN STRETCH OF WX FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES ARE THE USUAL MAIN CONCERNS.
MODELS...NAM/GFS ARE QUITE SURPRISINGLY MOSTLY ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI
ON ITS WAY SOUTH.
TONIGHT...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM NNE TO N. SOME DRYING WORKS
ACROSS EASTERN SUPERIOR (850-700MB RH TO 35 PERCENT BY 12Z) AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN LAKE MI (50 PERCENT). 850MB TEMPS ACTUALLY
RECOVER A TINY BIT...TO AROUND -16C BY 12Z. MOISTURE IS STILL
HOLDING ON IN THE EAST. LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND ROGER CITY TO
OSCODA... SHOULD AGAIN BE THE AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GO 1-2 INCHES IN THE FORMER AND 1-3 IN THE LATTER. IN EASTERN
UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THE COASTS WILL BE AS
WARM AS 10 ABOVE.
MONDAY...ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO WI...WITH THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE/BETTER FORCING STAYING JUST TO OUR WEST. WEDGE OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER AND N CENTRAL
LOWER MI...WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL STUBBORNLY CLINGING TO THE
HURON COAST. A NORTH TO BORDERLINE NNE 1000-850MB MEAN WIND
CONTINUES UNABATED. WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAME PLACES...BUT
TAKE ACCUMS ANOTHER STEP DOWN...TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AS
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST BLASTS SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DRYING
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO WEST ON TUESDAY...
USHERING IN WARM ADVECTION...AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO THE LOWER
MINUS TEENS. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE COMMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO CLIPPER WILL BE NEARING EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE
WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SAME OLD COASTAL PLACES MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS PASS THRU A MORE TRADITIONAL NW FETCH. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR. WILL LOWER EASTERN UPPER
AND THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH
THE COASTS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
JZ
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT EACH MODEL HAS DISAGREEMENTS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE (SOME ARE WEST OF HERE
AND OTHERS ARE EAST). THUS...GOING TO TRY AND JUST SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS
TO DO BETTER AT THIS TIME RANGE. OTHERWISE...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO BE MORE DELAYED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
THUS...THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR. KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/
EXPECT WINDS/WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME 10 TO 20KT NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
JZ
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1216 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW
PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCT/NMRS
SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180517
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1216 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
RUNYAN
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/...OVERNIGHT
500 MB LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVER UPPER MICHIGAN JUST AS IT CAUGHT UP
WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. DEEPENING
UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG VORT MAX...RESULTING IN
ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT AND FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CLOSED SURFACE
LOW. THE END RESULT HAS BEEN ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WARNED AREA SW OF A LINE FROM
CHARLEVOIX TO OSCODA. APX 88D RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT TERRAIN ALSO
SEEMS TO HAVE PLAYED A PART IN SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS
ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A
STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 13 INCHES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. REPORTS
FROM MANISTEE COUNTY ALSO INDICATES 8 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA INDICATE STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. SPOTTER IN DETOUR DID REPORT 6
INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN ISOLATED AMOUNT
LIKELY DUE TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM THE
SAULT INDICATE ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE DAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...BUT DO EXPECTED LOW CENTER WILL REACH
LAKE HURON BY 12Z. BEST UPPER SUPPORT/LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AS
WELL...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE VERY BEGINNING OF A
DOWNWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY INTENSITY. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP ALL
HEADLINES GOING...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN
THROUGH 10Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM S/SE TO SE AND EVENTUALLY NE BY 12Z. WILL
MAKE SOME SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT IN LOCATIONS TARGETED BY SE FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS MOST OF THESE PLACES
HAVE ONLY RECEIVED AN 2 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND
SUNDAY...THE 700-500 MB LIFT MOVES EAST SO FOR A TIME THE SUBSIDENCE
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR E UPPER TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR N LOWER, THE NE FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
NOT JUST FOR NE LOWER, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST, IN NW LOWER.
SO HAVE SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. THE
PROBLEM THAT NOW ARISES IS THE ICE COVERAGE IN N LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
MAY LIMIT THE SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. SO TRIED NOT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH
THE AMOUNTS. THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO E LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHIFT MORE N.
SO IT IS UP FOR GRABS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW THERE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE COVERAGE IN WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORELINE TOWARD MONTREAL RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS SHIFT FROM N TO NNW, BUT THE MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER FALL TO AROUND 45% TO 55% DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
END INSTABILITY AS THE WATER TEMPERATURES, EVEN IN LAKE SUPERIOR,
ARE BETWEEN 0C AND 4C.
MONDAY...INITIALLY IT IS DRY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE NNW
WIND, BUT THE MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, SO HAVE INCREASING
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IS IN NE LOWER AND THE MOISTURE IN NW
LOWER BEGINS TO DECREASE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15C SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LES THAT CONTINUES, HOWEVER, THE BANDS WILL
PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED TO THE MORE FAVORED AREAS ON A NNW FLOW. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING TO A POSITION E OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE OF A DYING LES WITH THE NW FLOW. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN BY THE AREAS WHERE THERE IS ICE COVER OVER THE NORTH 1/4 OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY, WINDS GO FROM NORTH
TO NNW WITH HPC EMULATING THE ECMWF, USED THE ECMWF TO GET SOME OF
THE DETAILS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY, THE DAY COULD START DRY, BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY THE
END OF THE DAY, THE SNOW RETURNS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN -10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. WHILE WINDS SHIFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS E UPPER AND N LOWER. SATURDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
LES. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE ICE IS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES QUICKLY
AND WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...
NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1216 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW
PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCT/NMRS
SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>029-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-
024-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180306
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
RUNYAN
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/...OVERNIGHT
500 MB LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVER UPPER MICHIGAN JUST AS IT CAUGHT UP
WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. DEEPENING
UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG VORT MAX...RESULTING IN
ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT AND FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CLOSED SURFACE
LOW. THE END RESULT HAS BEEN ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WARNED AREA SW OF A LINE FROM
CHARLEVOIX TO OSCODA. APX 88D RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT TERRAIN ALSO
SEEMS TO HAVE PLAYED A PART IN SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS
ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A
STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 13 INCHES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. REPORTS
FROM MANISTEE COUNTY ALSO INDICATES 8 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA INDICATE STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. SPOTTER IN DETOUR DID REPORT 6
INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN ISOLATED AMOUNT
LIKELY DUE TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM THE
SAULT INDICATE ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE DAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...BUT DO EXPECTED LOW CENTER WILL REACH
LAKE HURON BY 12Z. BEST UPPER SUPPORT/LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AS
WELL...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE VERY BEGINNING OF A
DOWNWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY INTENSITY. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP ALL
HEADLINES GOING...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN
THROUGH 10Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM S/SE TO SE AND EVENTUALLY NE BY 12Z. WILL
MAKE SOME SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT IN LOCATIONS TARGETED BY SE FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS MOST OF THESE PLACES
HAVE ONLY RECEIVED AN 2 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND
SUNDAY...THE 700-500 MB LIFT MOVES EAST SO FOR A TIME THE SUBSIDENCE
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR E UPPER TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR N LOWER, THE NE FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
NOT JUST FOR NE LOWER, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST, IN NW LOWER.
SO HAVE SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. THE
PROBLEM THAT NOW ARISES IS THE ICE COVERAGE IN N LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
MAY LIMIT THE SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. SO TRIED NOT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH
THE AMOUNTS. THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO E LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHIFT MORE N.
SO IT IS UP FOR GRABS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW THERE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE COVERAGE IN WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORELINE TOWARD MONTREAL RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS SHIFT FROM N TO NNW, BUT THE MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER FALL TO AROUND 45% TO 55% DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
END INSTABILITY AS THE WATER TEMPERATURES, EVEN IN LAKE SUPERIOR,
ARE BETWEEN 0C AND 4C.
MONDAY...INITIALLY IT IS DRY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE NNW
WIND, BUT THE MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, SO HAVE INCREASING
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IS IN NE LOWER AND THE MOISTURE IN NW
LOWER BEGINS TO DECREASE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15C SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LES THAT CONTINUES, HOWEVER, THE BANDS WILL
PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED TO THE MORE FAVORED AREAS ON A NNW FLOW. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING TO A POSITION E OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE OF A DYING LES WITH THE NW FLOW. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN BY THE AREAS WHERE THERE IS ICE COVER OVER THE NORTH 1/4 OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY, WINDS GO FROM NORTH
TO NNW WITH HPC EMULATING THE ECMWF, USED THE ECMWF TO GET SOME OF
THE DETAILS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY, THE DAY COULD START DRY, BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY THE
END OF THE DAY, THE SNOW RETURNS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN -10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. WHILE WINDS SHIFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS E UPPER AND N LOWER. SATURDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
LES. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE ICE IS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES QUICKLY
AND WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...
NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 635 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>029-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-
024-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 172335
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...TONIGHT
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROLL THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ABOUT TO ROLL THROUGH
GREEN BAY. ATTENDING SFC LOW NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO ROLL DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. WARM ADVECTION ASCENT CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST OF THE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY HAS BEEN CENTERED ALONG US-131 FROM ROUGHLY
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY DOWN MISSAUKEE/ROSCOMMON COUNTIES WITH KALKASKA
COUNTY TAKING THE BRUNT WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED FROM
SPOTTERS. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LINKED TO 12Z NAM DEPICTION OF
MID LEVEL (H8-H6) F-GEN AND ASSOCIATED OMEGA MAX SLIDING THROUGH
THAT AREA AS WELL AS TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL HAS BY-AND-LARGE MOVED OUT OF THE SW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. BUT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ROLLING OUT OF
WISCONSIN WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING BACK INTO THAT AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...REGIONAL RADAR PLOT REVEALING A FAIRLY
HEFTY LAKE BAND JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANISTEE EXTENDING INTO THE
MANISTIQUE AREA THAT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SW COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT WEST. IN FACT...RECEIVED AN ISOLATED SPOTTER
REPORT OF NEAR 12 INCHES IN GOULD CITY THIS AFTERNOON APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF THE NRN END OF THIS BAND SLIDING THROUGH.
SO...FACING ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST GOING FORWARD IN TERMS OF
WHERE TO GO WITH HEADLINES. CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SLOW/DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING SE THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SLATED TO SLIP
THROUGH THE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS CIRCULATION
CLOSES OFF OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...MID LEVEL F-GEN RESPONSE
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NRN LAKE HURON WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
HEFTIER SNOWFALL ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. KAPX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHIFTING INTO THE
NE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES THUS FAR HAS
BEEN ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. SO...WILL SIMPLY
CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE COUNTIES BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES BASED
ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND CONDITIONS THUS FAR.
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...DUE TO THE DROP OFF IN SNOWFALL CONSIDERED
DOWNGRADING WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. BUT...APPEARS SOME HEAVIER
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO THAT AREA THIS EVENING
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALSO...LAKE ENHANCED BAND JUST OFFSHORE WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW. SO...WILL LEAVE REST OF THE
WARNING INTACT.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND
SUNDAY...THE 700-500 MB LIFT MOVES EAST SO FOR A TIME THE SUBSIDENCE
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR E UPPER TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR N LOWER, THE NE FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
NOT JUST FOR NE LOWER, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST, IN NW LOWER.
SO HAVE SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. THE
PROBLEM THAT NOW ARISES IS THE ICE COVERAGE IN N LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
MAY LIMIT THE SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. SO TRIED NOT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH
THE AMOUNTS. THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO E LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHIFT MORE N.
SO IT IS UP FOR GRABS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW THERE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE COVERAGE IN WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORELINE TOWARD MONTREAL RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS SHIFT FROM N TO NNW, BUT THE MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER FALL TO AROUND 45% TO 55% DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
END INSTABILITY AS THE WATER TEMPERATURES, EVEN IN LAKE SUPERIOR,
ARE BETWEEN 0C AND 4C.
MONDAY...INITIALLY IT IS DRY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE NNW
WIND, BUT THE MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, SO HAVE INCREASING
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IS IN NE LOWER AND THE MOISTURE IN NW
LOWER BEGINS TO DECREASE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15C SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LES THAT CONTINUES, HOWEVER, THE BANDS WILL
PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED TO THE MORE FAVORED AREAS ON A NNW FLOW. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING TO A POSITION E OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE OF A DYING LES WITH THE NW FLOW. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN BY THE AREAS WHERE THERE IS ICE COVER OVER THE NORTH 1/4 OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY, WINDS GO FROM NORTH
TO NNW WITH HPC EMULATING THE ECMWF, USED THE ECMWF TO GET SOME OF
THE DETAILS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY, THE DAY COULD START DRY, BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY THE
END OF THE DAY, THE SNOW RETURNS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN -10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. WHILE WINDS SHIFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS E UPPER AND N LOWER. SATURDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
LES. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE ICE IS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES QUICKLY
AND WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...
NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 635 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>029-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-
024-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
015.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KAPX 172114
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ADAM
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...TONIGHT
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROLL THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ABOUT TO ROLL THROUGH
GREEN BAY. ATTENDING SFC LOW NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO ROLL DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. WARM ADVECTION ASCENT CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST OF THE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY HAS BEEN CENTERED ALONG US-131 FROM ROUGHLY
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY DOWN MISSAUKEE/ROSCOMMON COUNTIES WITH KALKASKA
COUNTY TAKING THE BRUNT WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED FROM
SPOTTERS. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LINKED TO 12Z NAM DEPICTION OF
MID LEVEL (H8-H6) F-GEN AND ASSOCIATED OMEGA MAX SLIDING THROUGH
THAT AREA AS WELL AS TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL HAS BY-AND-LARGE MOVED OUT OF THE SW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. BUT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ROLLING OUT OF
WISCONSIN WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING BACK INTO THAT AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...REGIONAL RADAR PLOT REVEALING A FAIRLY
HEFTY LAKE BAND JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANISTEE EXTENDING INTO THE
MANISTIQUE AREA THAT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SW COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT WEST. IN FACT...RECEIVED AN ISOLATED SPOTTER
REPORT OF NEAR 12 INCHES IN GOULD CITY THIS AFTERNOON APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF THE NRN END OF THIS BAND SLIDING THROUGH.
SO...FACING ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST GOING FORWARD IN TERMS OF
WHERE TO GO WITH HEADLINES. CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SLOW/DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING SE THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SLATED TO SLIP
THROUGH THE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS CIRCULATION
CLOSES OFF OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...MID LEVEL F-GEN RESPONSE
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NRN LAKE HURON WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
HEFTIER SNOWFALL ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. KAPX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHIFTING INTO THE
NE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES THUS FAR HAS
BEEN ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. SO...WILL SIMPLY
CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE COUNTIES BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES BASED
ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND CONDITIONS THUS FAR.
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...DUE TO THE DROP OFF IN SNOWFALL CONSIDERED
DOWNGRADING WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. BUT...APPEARS SOME HEAVIER
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO THAT AREA THIS EVENING
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALSO...LAKE ENHANCED BAND JUST OFFSHORE WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW. SO...WILL LEAVE REST OF THE
WARNING INTACT.
ADAM
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND
SUNDAY...THE 700-500 MB LIFT MOVES EAST SO FOR A TIME THE SUBSIDENCE
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR E UPPER TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR N LOWER, THE NE FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
NOT JUST FOR NE LOWER, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST, IN NW LOWER.
SO HAVE SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. THE
PROBLEM THAT NOW ARISES IS THE ICE COVERAGE IN N LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
MAY LIMIT THE SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. SO TRIED NOT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH
THE AMOUNTS. THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO E LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHIFT MORE N.
SO IT IS UP FOR GRABS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW THERE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE COVERAGE IN WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORELINE TOWARD MONTREAL RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS SHIFT FROM N TO NNW, BUT THE MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER FALL TO AROUND 45% TO 55% DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
END INSTABILITY AS THE WATER TEMPERATURES, EVEN IN LAKE SUPERIOR,
ARE BETWEEN 0C AND 4C.
MONDAY...INITIALLY IT IS DRY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE NNW
WIND, BUT THE MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, SO HAVE INCREASING
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AIR IS IN NE LOWER AND THE MOISTURE IN NW
LOWER BEGINS TO DECREASE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15C SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LES THAT CONTINUES, HOWEVER, THE BANDS WILL
PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED TO THE MORE FAVORED AREAS ON A NNW FLOW. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING TO A POSITION E OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE OF A DYING LES WITH THE NW FLOW. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN BY THE AREAS WHERE THERE IS ICE COVER OVER THE NORTH 1/4 OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY, WINDS GO FROM NORTH
TO NNW WITH HPC EMULATING THE ECMWF, USED THE ECMWF TO GET SOME OF
THE DETAILS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY, THE DAY COULD START DRY, BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY THE
END OF THE DAY, THE SNOW RETURNS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN -10C. FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. WHILE WINDS SHIFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS E UPPER AND N LOWER. SATURDAY, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OR COLDER, THE WINDS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
LES. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE ICE IS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES QUICKLY
AND WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.
LUTZ
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 413 PM/
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...
NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS.
ADAM
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1240 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE OVR THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN
BEFORE MOVING INTO SE LWR MI TONIGHT. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO GENERATE
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN
AND TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
OVER KPLN/KAPN BY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE STORM SYSTEMS EXITS EAST INTO
ONTARIO. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHEAST TODAY...
TO NORTH/NORTHWEST SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP IFR CIGS/VSBY OVR KTVC.
SWR
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>029-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-
024-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
015.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
|
