000
FXUS61 KALY 201445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS ENTIRE FA AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY SLIPPING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION...ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE THAN JUST
FLURRIES. THUS INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 15 PERCENT AND INCLUDED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SNOW GRIDS. HAVE ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AS TEMPS CONTINUED TO FALL IN SOME AREAS
BEYOND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY NOW STARTING TO RECOVER.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10
MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TROF WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A VERY WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND HAVE ONLY FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE FORECAST
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO PCPN IS NOT MENTIONED IN THAT AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP ON THURSDAY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

TEMP FORECASTS...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. IT WILL ALREADY START TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
A SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE IN...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15.
ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS IN STORE...AS WE GET INTO A MINI WARM SECTOR THAT
WILL BRING ABOVE AVG TEMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALBANY WILL LIKELY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE THE FIRST ABOVE
FREEZING TEMP SINCE JAN 13. SOME LOWER 40S EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THU NIGHT...AND THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. BOTH 00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MENTION MAINLY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
THE COLD TEMPS...THE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW TYPE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY HEADING OUR WAY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...AND BRINGS PRECIP IN ON MON...WHICH ABOUT 36
HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIP
UNTIL THEN. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT IT ALL OUT...SO WILL MENTION JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KALB/KPOU WITH IFR CIGS AT KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-18Z...AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCOUR
AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING AND DRIER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 5 KT THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....
WED-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT AM...VFR. CHC -SHSN AND MVFR/IFR. ARCTIC FROPA EXPECTED.
SAT PM...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY MELTING WILL BE BRIEF AND
INSIGNIFICANT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...11/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 201139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
639 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD AND PCPN PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF APPEAR
DISORGANIZED...WITH PCPN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AS OF 400 AM...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TO HAPPEN AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TROF WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A VERY WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND HAVE ONLY FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE FORECAST
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO PCPN IS NOT MENTIONED IN THAT AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP ON THURSDAY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

TEMP FORECASTS...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. IT WILL ALREADY START TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
A SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE IN...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15.
ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS IN STORE...AS WE GET INTO A MINI WARM SECTOR THAT
WILL BRING ABOVE AVG TEMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALBANY WILL LIKELY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE THE FIRST ABOVE
FREEZING TEMP SINCE JAN 13. SOME LOWER 40S EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THU NIGHT...AND THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. BOTH 00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MENTION MAINLY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
THE COLD TEMPS...THE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW TYPE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY HEADING OUR WAY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...AND BRINGS PRECIP IN ON MON...WHICH ABOUT 36
HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIP
UNTIL THEN. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT IT ALL OUT...SO WILL MENTION JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KALB/KPOU WITH IFR CIGS AT KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-18Z...AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCOUR
AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING AND DRIER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 5 KT THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....
WED-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT AM...VFR. CHC -SHSN AND MVFR/IFR. ARCTIC FROPA EXPECTED.
SAT PM...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY MELTING WILL BE BRIEF AND
INSIGNIFICANT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 200915
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD AND PCPN PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF APPEAR
DISORGANIZED...WITH PCPN ALMOST NON-EXIXTANT AS OF 400 AM...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TO HAPPEN AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TROF WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A VERY WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND HAVE ONLY FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE FORECAST
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO PCPN IS NOT MENTIONED IN THAT AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP ON THURSDAY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

TEMP FORECASTS...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. IT WILL ALREADY START TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
A SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE IN...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15.
ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEF WARMUP IS IN STORE...AS WE GET INTO A MINI WARM SECTOR THAT
WILL BRING ABOVE AVG TEMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALBANY WILL LIKELY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE THE FIRST ABOVE
FREEZING TEMP SINCE JAN 13. SOME LOWER 40S EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THU NIGHT...AND THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. BOTH 00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MENTION MAINLY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
THE COLD TEMPS...THE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW TYPE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY HEADING OUR WAY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...AND BRINGS PRECIP IN ON MON...WHICH ABOUT 36
HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIP
UNTIL THEN. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT IT ALL OUT...SO WILL MENTION JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL POSITIONED TO THE WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. THE TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY KGFL/KALB...ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE JUST INTO VFR
RANGE. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL.
FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AT KGFL...BUT A STRATUS
DECK HAS MOVED IN. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR RANGE...WITH
OCCASIONAL DROP TO IFR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS TREND
THROUGH 12Z AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
FLUCTUATION IN VSBYS. WILL MENTION VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB/KPOU...BUT NOT EXPECTING IFR DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE AND PATCHY
CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR
WILL BE ADVECTING IN TODAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...SO
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS WILL BE
NNW UP TO 5 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....
WED-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT AM...VFR. CHC -SHSN AND MVFR/IFR. ARCTIC FROPA EXPECTED.
SAT PM...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ANY MELTING WILL BE BRIEF AND
INSIGNIFICANT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 200554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND ADJUSTED MIN DOWNWARD BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR KGFL. IN ADDITION HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA AS SHORTWAVE WHICH PRODUCED BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF FA WAS STARTING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW DID MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY
BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.

FOR MINS...TRICKY CALL...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A FWC/MAV
MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LOW DEWPTS AND BRIEF CLEARING EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE...LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR TUE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VALLEYS BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR TUE MAXES...GENERALLY WENT
NEAR...OR A SHADE BELOW THE FWC/MAV MOS BLEND...WITH LOWER/MID 20S
WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...SFC RIDGE BUILDS E...AND DESPITE COLDER
TEMPS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AREAS TUE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR TUE NT/WED AM...WITH SOME
SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
CLOSE TO...OR A SHADE BELOW THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...SOME WIND COULD LIMIT HOW COLD WE GET. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THAT SOME WIND IS POSSIBLE...WE MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS LATE TUE NT INTO WED AM.
OTHERWISE...FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUN TO START...BEFORE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WITHIN INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY LATE WED...OR WED NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE PERIOD OF EXTREMES.  A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THURSDAY.  ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT IS
A LIGHT PRODUCER.  MORE PROFOUNDLY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WHICH FILTER IN FRI NGT AND SATURDAY.  DURING THIS
TIME...A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN SETS UP.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO WE HAVE CHC -SHSN IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ZONES THRU THEN.  ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN GETS READY TO APPROACH FROM
THE HEARTLAND.  WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...HAVE SLGT CHC THROUGHOUT AREA ON MON.

WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR ALL.  HIGHS OF UPPER 20S AND 30S ON FRI
BECOME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MON.  ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
IN STORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.  MON NGT WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL POSITIONED TO THE WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. THE TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY KGFL/KALB...ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE JUST INTO VFR
RANGE. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL.
FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AT KGFL...BUT A STRATUS
DECK HAS MOVED IN. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR RANGE...WITH
OCCASIONAL DROP TO IFR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS TREND
THROUGH 12Z AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
FLUCTUATION IN VSBYS. WILL MENTION VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB/KPOU...BUT NOT EXPECTING IFR DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE AND PATCHY
CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR
WILL BE ADVECTING IN TODAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...SO
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS WILL BE
NNW UP TO 5 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....
WED-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT AM...VFR. CHC -SHSN AND MVFR/IFR. ARCTIC FROPA EXPECTED.
SAT PM...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 200239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND ADJUSTED MIN DOWNWARD BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR KGFL. IN ADDITION HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA AS SHORTWAVE WHICH PRODUCED BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF FA WAS STARTING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW DID MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY
BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.

FOR MINS...TRICKY CALL...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A FWC/MAV
MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LOW DEWPTS AND BRIEF CLEARING EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE...LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR TUE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VALLEYS BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR TUE MAXES...GENERALLY WENT
NEAR...OR A SHADE BELOW THE FWC/MAV MOS BLEND...WITH LOWER/MID 20S
WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...SFC RIDGE BUILDS E...AND DESPITE COLDER
TEMPS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AREAS TUE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR TUE NT/WED AM...WITH SOME
SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
CLOSE TO...OR A SHADE BELOW THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...SOME WIND COULD LIMIT HOW COLD WE GET. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THAT SOME WIND IS POSSIBLE...WE MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS LATE TUE NT INTO WED AM.
OTHERWISE...FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUN TO START...BEFORE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WITHIN INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY LATE WED...OR WED NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE PERIOD OF EXTREMES.  A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THURSDAY.  ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT IS
A LIGHT PRODUCER.  MORE PROFOUNDLY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WHICH FILTER IN FRI NGT AND SATURDAY.  DURING THIS
TIME...A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN SETS UP.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO WE HAVE CHC -SHSN IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ZONES THRU THEN.  ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN GETS READY TO APPROACH FROM
THE HEARTLAND.  WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...HAVE SLGT CHC THROUGHOUT AREA ON MON.

WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR ALL.  HIGHS OF UPPER 20S AND 30S ON FRI
BECOME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MON.  ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
IN STORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.  MON NGT WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY LIGHT -SHSN
AROUND THE AREA WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING TAF SITES WILL
HANDLE WITH A VCSH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING THE -SHSN TO CAUSE A
REDUCTION IN VSBY ALTHOUGH SOME FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KGFL
AS THEY BECAME SKC FOR A SHORT TIME AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AT KGFL THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE VSBYS
ARE RESTRICTED TO BELOW 3SM...THUS WILL INCLUDE AS A TEMPO GROUP.
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY -SHSN WOULD BE AT KPOU BUT EVEN AT KPOU
BACK EDGE OF MAIN PCPN SHIELD ALREADY APPROACHING SO WILL LEAVE
THEM WITH VCSH AS WELL. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THAT OVC040 WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FINALLY EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SKY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THEN N-NW
AT 5-8 KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK....
TUE NIGHT-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 192336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX YET INTERESTING EVENTS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FIRST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE...IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NYS. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO THE E OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF MOD TO EVEN HVY SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN PA...STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF NYC.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AND RUC13 ANALYSES OF 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND OMEGA...IT APPEARS THAT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL
BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 6 PM EST TO 10 PM EST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND SE DUTCHESS COS.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION IS A POCKET OF STRONG
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM JUST S/W OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE NE CATSKILLS...TO NEAR BGM.
UNDERNEATH THIS POCKET...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ESP ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA SHOULD TRAVERSE ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING...ALONG WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SW APPROACHES LATER
THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...AND TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COULD LEAVE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH.

SO...FOR POPS...WE CURRENTLY INDICATE LIKELIES FOR SE AREAS...FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF SNOWFALL...AND HIGH CHC RANGES INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE S/W MOVES ACROSS.

FOR MINS...TRICKY CALL...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A FWC/MAV MOS
BLEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE LOW DEWPTS AND BRIEF CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE...LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR TUE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VALLEYS BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR TUE MAXES...GENERALLY WENT
NEAR...OR A SHADE BELOW THE FWC/MAV MOS BLEND...WITH LOWER/MID 20S
WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...SFC RIDGE BUILDS E...AND DESPITE COLDER
TEMPS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AREAS TUE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR TUE NT/WED AM...WITH SOME
SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
CLOSE TO...OR A SHADE BELOW THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...SOME WIND COULD LIMIT HOW COLD WE GET. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THAT SOME WIND IS POSSIBLE...WE MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS LATE TUE NT INTO WED AM.
OTHERWISE...FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUN TO START...BEFORE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WITHIN INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY LATE WED...OR WED NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE PERIOD OF EXTREMES.  A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THURSDAY.  ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT IS
A LIGHT PRODUCER.  MORE PROFOUNDLY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WHICH FILTER IN FRI NGT AND SATURDAY.  DURING THIS
TIME...A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN SETS UP.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO WE HAVE CHC -SHSN IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ZONES THRU THEN.  ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN GETS READY TO APPROACH FROM
THE HEARTLAND.  WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...HAVE SLGT CHC THROUGHOUT AREA ON MON.

WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR ALL.  HIGHS OF UPPER 20S AND 30S ON FRI
BECOME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MON.  ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
IN STORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.  MON NGT WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY LIGHT -SHSN
AROUND THE AREA WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING TAF SITES WILL
HANDLE WITH A VCSH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING THE -SHSN TO CAUSE A
REDUCTION IN VSBY ALTHOUGH SOME BR HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KGFL
AS THEY BECAME SKC FOR A SHORT TIME AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AT KGFL THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE
VSBYS ARE RESTRICTED TO 3SM...THUS WILL INCLUDE AS A TEMPO GROUP.
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY -SHSN WOULD BE AT KPOU BUT EVEN AT KPOU BACK
EDGE OF MAIN PCPN SHIELD ALREADY APPROACHING SO WILL LEAVE THEM
WITH VCSH AS WELL. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THAT OVC040 WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FINALLY EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SKY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THEN N-NW
AT 5-8 KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK....
TUE NIGHT-THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 192110
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBACE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX YET INTERESTING EVENTS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FIRST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE...IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NYS. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO THE E OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF MOD TO EVEN HVY SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN PA...STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF NYC.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AND RUC13 ANALYSES OF 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND OMEGA...IT APPEARS THAT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL
BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 6 PM EST TO 10 PM EST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND SE DUTCHESS COS.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION IS A POCKET OF STRONG
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM JUST S/W OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE NE CATSKILLS...TO NEAR BGM.
UNDERNEATH THIS POCKET...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ESP ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA SHOULD TRAVERSE ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING...ALONG WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SW APPROACHES LATER
THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...AND TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COULD LEAVE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH.

SO...FOR POPS...WE CURRENTLY INDICATE LIKELIES FOR SE AREAS...FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF SNOWFALL...AND HIGH CHC RANGES INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE S/W MOVES ACROSS.

FOR MINS...TRICKY CALL...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A FWC/MAV MOS
BLEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE LOW DEWPTS AND BRIEF CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE...LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR TUE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VALLEYS BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR TUE MAXES...GENERALLY WENT
NEAR...OR A SHADE BELOW THE FWC/MAV MOS BLEND...WITH LOWER/MID 20S
WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...SFC RIDGE BUILDS E...AND DESPITE COLDER
TEMPS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AREAS TUE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR TUE NT/WED AM...WITH SOME
SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
CLOSE TO...OR A SHADE BELOW THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...SOME WIND COULD LIMIT HOW COLD WE GET. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THAT SOME WIND IS POSSIBLE...WE MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS LATE TUE NT INTO WED AM.
OTHERWISE...FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUN TO START...BEFORE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WITHIN INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY LATE WED...OR WED NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE PERIOD OF EXTREMES.  A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THURSDAY.  ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT IS
A LIGHT PRODUCER.  MORE PROFOUNDLY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WHICH FILTER IN FRI NGT AND SATURDAY.  DURING THIS
TIME...A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN SETS UP.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO WE HAVE CHC -SHSN IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ZONES THRU THEN.  ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN GETS READY TO APPROACH FROM
THE HEARTLAND.  WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...HAVE SLGT CHC THROUGHOUT AREA ON MON.

WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR ALL.  HIGHS OF UPPER 20S AND 30S ON FRI
BECOME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MON.  ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
IN STORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.  MON NGT WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS/VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS KEEPING VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB AT MVFR
RANGE DUE TO BR/HZ. THIS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID AFTN OR SO...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW -SHSN AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ANY
ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN JUST A VCSH. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
HERE...ENDING THE THREAT OF -SHSN. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SCT-BKN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

OUTLOOK....
TUE PM -THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 191720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALSO SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING...AS IS SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...ALONG WITH THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPER COOLING...SOME
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY IN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES. MANY OF THE AREAS OF CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND THERMAL
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM IN
THE MID ATLANTIC SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN AREAS. SO...SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER...CAPPING THE
TEMPERATURES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN AREAS
THAT ARE APPROACHING FORECASTED HIGHS ALREADY. SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH REDUCING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND IN HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
SO THE POP FORECASTS WILL BE GRADUALLY GETTING LOWER. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER THE TROF MOVES EAST...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
LATE WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S...THEN GETTING COLDER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER /BY JANUARY STANDARDS/ SHAPING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD. FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI...WITH A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH BRINGING ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS FAVORED LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THU/FRI...WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SAT. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS/VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS KEEPING VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB AT MVFR
RANGE DUE TO BR/HZ. THIS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID AFTN OR SO...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW -SHSN AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ANY
ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN JUST A VCSH. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
HERE...ENDING THE THREAT OF -SHSN. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SCT-BKN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

OUTLOOK....
TUE PM -THU....VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 190907
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 600 PM TODAY/...
STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE NO
LONGER A CONCERN FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
STILL LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA (ADIRONDACK ZONES AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY). EXPECT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
SO THE POP FORECASTS WILL BE GRADUALLY GETTING LOWER. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER THE TROF MOVES EAST...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
LATE WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S...THEN GETTING COLDER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER /BY JANUARY STANDARDS/ SHAPING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD. FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI...WITH A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH BRINGING ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS FAVORED LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THU/FRI...WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SAT. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIP SHIELD WITH LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS CAUSED FOG
AND VLIFR VSBY AT KPOU. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIFR/VLIFR WITH
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z MON. AT KALB...STILL A
FEW -SHSN MAY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 07Z...BUT NOT MUCH MORE SNOW
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME
POSSIBLE FOG AND ASSOC IFR WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOTED. WILL MENTION IFR IN TEMPO GROUP AT KALB DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY
OF FOG. STRATUS CLOUDS AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES...SHOULD PERSIST AT GFL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR IFR AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...ALTHOUGH WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID MORNING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM...THEN SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT BY MID
MORNING.

OUTLOOK....
TUE-THU....VFR...CHC MVFR/IFR IN SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE
EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 190553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS HAS BEEN A FRUSTRATING SNOW EVENT TO FORECAST...TO SAY THE
LEAST. EARLIER...WE LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AND THEN ANOTHER BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW FORMED...APPARENTLY OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA AND MOVING BACK INTO A
PORTION OF THE HEADLINED AREA. THE BAND WEAKENED BEFORE TOO MUCH
SNOW COULD PILE UP BUT HAD REPORTS THAT AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW FELL WITH IT...AND LIKELY AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE IN A
FEW PLACES. ONE SAVING GRACE...OUR PWATS ARE QUITE LOW...ONLY 0.34
INCH OFF THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST...AND HAS YET
TO MOVE THROUGH. LARGE SCALE WEAK UPPER ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY
WEAK SHORT WAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. CROSS SECTIONS FROM BOTH THE LATEST
RUC13 AND NAM INDICATED THAT INDEED PRETTY GOOD ASCENT WAS OCCURRING
RIGHT IN THE AREA OF OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. THIS AREA OF ASCENT SHOULD
MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND BE REPLACED BY SINKING MOTION LATER
ON OVERNIGHT.

EVEN WHERE DBZ RETURNS HAVE BEEN 12-15 DBZ VALUES...STEADY LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN A MILE AT SOME
OF OUR ASOS SITES AND LIKELY PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATION SNOW GIVEN
THEM.

JUST CALL IT OCCASIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR
ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...STILL TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY
SINKING TO OUR SOUTH...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NOT ONLY OVERNIGHT...BUT THROUGH MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A POINT OR TWO...BUT WITH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS...LEAVE
THEM AS IS BUT WILL ADJUST HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIP SHIELD WITH LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS CAUSED FOG
AND VLIFR VSBY AT KPOU. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIFR/VLIFR WITH
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z MON. AT KALB...STILL A
FEW -SHSN MAY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 07Z...BUT NOT MUCH MORE SNOW
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME
POSSIBLE FOG AND ASSOC IFR WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOTED. WILL MENTION IFR IN TEMPO GROUP AT KALB DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY
OF FOG. STRATUS CLOUDS AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES...SHOULD PERSIST AT GFL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR IFR AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...ALTHOUGH WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID MORNING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM...THEN SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT BY MID
MORNING.

OUTLOOK....
TUE-THU....VFR...CHC MVFR/IFR IN SCT -SHSN.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 190212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS HAS BEEN A FRUSTRATING SNOW EVENT TO FORECAST...TO SAY THE
LEAST. EARLIER...WE LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE AND THEN ANOTHER BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW FORMED...APPARENTLY OVER A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA AND MOVING BACK INTO A
PORTION OF THE HEADLINED AREA. THE BAND WEAKENED BEFORE TOO MUCH
SNOW COULD PILE UP BUT HAD REPORTS THAT AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW FELL WITH IT...AND LIKELY AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE IN A
FEW PLACES. ONE SAVING GRACE...OUR PWATS ARE QUITE LOW...ONLY 0.34
INCH OFF THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST...AND HAS YET
TO MOVE THROUGH. LARGE SCALE WEAK UPPER ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY
WEAK SHORT WAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. CROSS SECTIONS FROM BOTH THE LATEST
RUC13 AND NAM INDICATED THAT INDEED PRETTY GOOD ASCENT WAS OCCURRING
RIGHT IN THE AREA OF OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. THIS AREA OF ASCENT SHOULD
MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND BE REPLACED BY SINKING MOTION LATER
ON OVERNIGHT.

EVEN WHERE DBZ RETURNS HAVE BEEN 12-15 DBZ VALUES...STEADY LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN A MILE AT SOME
OF OUR ASOS SITES AND LIKELY PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATION SNOW GIVEN
THEM.

JUST CALL IT OCCASIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR
ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...STILL TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY
SINKING TO OUR SOUTH...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NOT ONLY OVERNIGHT...BUT THROUGH MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A POINT OR TWO...BUT WITH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS...LEAVE
THEM AS IS BUT WILL ADJUST HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOWS COULD STILL IMPACT TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THEMSELVES BRIEFLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR RANGE...THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DROP A BIT AND THERE MIGHT EVEN SOME SNOW INDUCED FOG.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO BLEED IN OVERNIGHT. THE BIG CHALLENGE
IS WHETHER THAT "DRIER" AIR TRANSLATES TO THE GROUND OR REMAINS
ABOVE THE TYPICAL NIGHTTIME INVERSION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
MIXING POTENTIAL BUT AS USUAL NOT A CLEAR CUT DECISION. IF WE WERE
TO CLEAR...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD ACTUALLY FORM...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGLF/MVFR AT KPOU.
HOWEVER...AT KALB...KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR AS JUST ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG AND IFR
CLOUDS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE THE SCENARIO IS LOW...SO THE TAFS NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BE SURE TO CHECK THE AVIATION DISCUSSION LATER
ON THIS EVENING TO SEE IF OUR THINKING ON IFR CONDITIONS HAS
CHANGED.

AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER ON
MONDAY DESPITE PERSISTENT CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KGLF/KPOU...BECOMING WEST JUST UNDER 10KTS AT KALB LATER IN THE
DAY.


OUTLOOK....
TUE..VFR...CHC IFR IN -SHSN.
WED....VFR...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHSN.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR...CHC MVFR IN -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 190001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST FROM CENTRAL RENSSELAER
COUNTY...NORTHWEST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ALBANY...BACK INTO THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE 20Z RUC13 ACTUALLY INDICATED THIS FEATURE
WOULD FORM...BUT FURTHER NORTH INTO SARATOGA COUNTY.

STAND BY DECISION TO HAVE DROPPED HEADLINES...AS THIS SMALL BAND IS
CLEARLY A MESO-SCALE FEATURE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY CLIPPER WHICH
HAS LONG TRANSLATED ITS SURFACE ENERGY TO COASTAL STORM FURTHER
EAST. APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SURFACE CONVERGENCE "MAXIMA" LOCATED
OVER THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTICALLY...STILL HAVE THE UPPER
AIR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. WE PLAN ON HANDLING THIS BAND WITH NOWCASTS OR SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOWS COULD STILL IMPACT TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THEMSELVES BRIEFLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR RANGE...THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DROP A BIT AND THERE MIGHT EVEN SOME SNOW INDUCED FOG.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO BLEED IN OVERNIGHT. THE BIG CHALLENGE
IS WHETHER THAT "DRIER" AIR TRANSLATES TO THE GROUND OR REMAINS
ABOVE THE TYPICAL NIGHTTIME INVERSION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
MIXING POTENTIAL BUT AS USUAL NOT A CLEAR CUT DECISION. IF WE WERE
TO CLEAR...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD ACTUALLY FORM...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGLF/MVFR AT KPOU.
HOWEVER...AT KALB...KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR AS JUST ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG AND IFR
CLOUDS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE THE SCENARIO IS LOW...SO THE TAFS NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BE SURE TO CHECK THE AVIATION DISCUSSION LATER
ON THIS EVENING TO SEE IF OUR THINKING ON IFR CONDITIONS HAS
CHANGED.

AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER ON
MONDAY DESPITE PERSISTENT CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KGLF/KPOU...BECOMING WEST JUST UNDER 10KTS AT KALB LATER IN THE
DAY.


OUTLOOK....
TUE..VFR...CHC IFR IN -SHSN.
WED....VFR...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHSN.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR...CHC MVFR IN -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 182318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL SEEING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME "ELEMENTS" OF
MORE MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOW NO INDICATION OF
ASSOCIATED BANDING AND SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

SINCE SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...WENT NUMEROUS THERE FOR THE EVENING...SCATTERED
ELSEWHERE. LATER OVERNIGHT...LOWER POPS EVERYWHERE AS PER EARLIER
THINKING. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH ARE SLATED TO HEAD
DOWN INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS...A BARGAIN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

A VERY INTERESTING EVENT UNFOLDED ACROSS SARATOGA COUNTY THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL REPORTS GREATER THAN 7
INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROF AS THE ENERGY TRANSLATES FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.  THUS...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW DWINDLES TO FLURRIES AT BEST...WHILE A LIGHT FOG CAUSES
MAINLY MVFR PROBLEMS TOWARD EVENING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
DECREASE. WHILE CLOUDS RISE TO VFR CEILINGS...THEY REMAIN LARGELY
INTACT...AND AFTER 06Z...AS VSBY ALSO IMPROVES WITH FALLING
TEMPS...ALL AIRPORTS WILL MOVE INTO VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SFC TO 2000 FEET.

A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TUE BREAKS DOWN WED...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE TROF...AND THE WIND PATTERNS SETTING UP ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.  ANOTHER LOW LATE WED INTO THU
THREATENS THE AIRPORTS WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON THU.

OUTLOOK....
MON PM-WED AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED PM-THU...VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 182219
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY INTERESTING EVENT UNFOLDED ACROSS SARATOGA COUNTY THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL REPORTS GREATER THAN 7
INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS.

WITH THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING TO OUR WEST AND BASED ON LAPS/RTMA
ANALYSIS...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS OHIO WITH THE LATEST RUC13
TAKING THIS WAVE TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE DACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...H2O
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING COMMENCING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHORT TERM MODELS THIS SECONDARY
WAVE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTERBANKS BASED ON THE MSAS
3HR PRESSURE FALLS AND TRACK TOWARD CAPE COD BY MIDNIGHT. SO THIS
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED POPS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DACKS AS THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO DROP WITH MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID-TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROF AS THE ENERGY TRANSLATES FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.  THUS...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW DWINDLES TO FLURRIES AT BEST...WHILE A LIGHT FOG CAUSES
MAINLY MVFR PROBLEMS TOWARD EVENING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
DECREASE. WHILE CLOUDS RISE TO VFR CEILINGS...THEY REMAIN LARGELY
INTACT...AND AFTER 06Z...AS VSBY ALSO IMPROVES WITH FALLING
TEMPS...ALL AIRPORTS WILL MOVE INTO VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SFC TO 2000 FEET.

A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TUE BREAKS DOWN WED...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE TROF...AND THE WIND PATTERNS SETTING UP ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.  ANOTHER LOW LATE WED INTO THU
THREATENS THE AIRPORTS WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON THU.

OUTLOOK....
MON PM-WED AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED PM-THU...VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...SND/11


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 182102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION PROVIDING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ENTIRE PATTERN DOES IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THEN A FEW CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY INTERESTING EVENT UNFOLDED ACROSS SARATOGA COUNTY THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL REPORTS GREATER THAN 7
INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS.

WITH THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING TO OUR WEST AND BASED ON LAPS/RTMA
ANALYSIS...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS OHIO WITH THE LATEST RUC13
TAKING THIS WAVE TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE DACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...H2O
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING COMMENCING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHORT TERM MODELS THIS SECONDARY
WAVE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTBANKS BASED ON THE MSAS
3HR PRESSURE FALLS AND TRACK TOWARD CAPE COD BY MIDNIGHT. SO THIS
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED POPS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DACKS AS THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO DROP WITH MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID-TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH COMPLICATES WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL/SHOULD BE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR THE DACKS WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK...SEEN MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM LAKE WINNIPEG PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE TO MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE CWA. STILL...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND IN
THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE L/M20S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WED NT MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L30S IN THE VALLEY AND U20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS THURS NT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ECMWF HAS THIS
SYSTEM MOVE DEVELOPED...FORMING A CLOSED 1000MB LOW. WHILE GFS SHOWS
AN OPEN TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE U20S/L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRI NT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS
IN THE VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SLGT CHC TO CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M20S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROF AS THE ENERGY TRANSLATES FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.  THUS...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW DWINDLES TO FLURRIES AT BEST...WHILE A LIGHT FOG CAUSES
MAINLY MVFR PROBLEMS TOWARD EVENING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
DECREASE. WHILE CLOUDS RISE TO VFR CEILINGS...THEY REMAIN LARGELY
INTACT...AND AFTER 06Z...AS VSBY ALSO IMPROVES WITH FALLING
TEMPS...ALL AIRPORTS WILL MOVE INTO VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SFC TO 2000 FEET.

A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TUE BREAKS DOWN WED...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE TROF...AND THE WIND PATTERNS SETTING UP ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.  ANOTHER LOW LATE WED INTO THU
THREATENS THE AIRPORTS WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON THU.

OUTLOOK....
MON PM-WED AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED PM-THU...VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...SND/11


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 181735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIN
LUTHER KING HOLIDAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENA TOOK PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN SARATOGA
COUNTY LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INTENSE BAND
OF SNOW SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4.5 TO 7.0 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED
FROM THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. THE INTENSE
BAND OF SNOW WHICH IS MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH HAD SSE
WINDS 20-25 KTS AT 2 KFT BUT SSW WINDS 20-25 KTS AT 3-5 KFT. WHILE
THIS MAY NOT BE THE ONLY REASON...IT CLEARLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THIS
VERY SMALL MESOSCALE EVENT. THUS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY WHICH WAS ISSUED AT 837 AM
EST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 337 AM...THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP WITH 00Z H500 HEIGHTS AND RAOB DATA OVERLAYED THIS MORNING
SHOWS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
MI. THIS CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AROUND THE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER SFC LOW. SOME
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE CLIPPER.
SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING A SECONDARY WAVE TO FORM TODAY OFF THE
NJ COAST...BUT ITS IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO THE ALY FCST AREA.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL WITH THE PRIMARY LOW/CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER NOONTIME...EXCEPT ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG V-COMPONENT ANOMALY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION.

WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 3-6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE TOTALS REFLECT AN INCH OR TWO THAT WILL HAVE
FALLEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.  WE THINK ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN
GREENS...BERKS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM TWO
TENTHS TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. WE UTILIZED SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 15:1 FOR THE ONSET THIS MORNING...THEN LOWERED TO 12:1
BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO BE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE DRY SLOT COMES FOR MOST OF
NY BY 18Z. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIKELY THROW ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
KEEP THE SNOW GOING...SAY FROM THE TACONICS EAST. WE LOWERED POPS TO
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE PM...AND
KEPT CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
BALMY TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FCST AREA IS CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY LOW BECOMES STACKED/OCCLUDED BETWEEN
GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES N/NE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE GENERATING A PRETTY GOOD SNOWSTORM FOR NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WE BELIEVE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
S/SW FLOW...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
CLASSIC MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENT ZONE SET UP FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.  THE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS....WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SRN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
POSSIBILITIES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE
GFSMOS MIN TEMPS WERE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NGM/NAM
GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A LITTLE FRESH SNOW
COVER...WE FELT IT WAS TOO COLD...AND WENT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFSMOS VALUES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS.

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH LITTLE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND IT. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EAST-
WEST SFC DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STARTS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS MIGRATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST MONDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS DECREASES TUE PM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGING.
HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS HANDLING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED. THE
DIFFERENCES GROW OUT IN TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROF AS THE ENERGY TRANSLATES FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.  THUS...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW DWINDLES TO FLURRIES AT BEST...WHILE A LIGHT FOG CAUSES
MAINLY MVFR PROBLEMS TOWARD EVENING AS DEW POINTS CLOSE IN...
PARTICULARLY IF RUNWAYS ARE TREATED.  WHILE CLOUDS RISE TO VFR
CEILINGS...THEY REMAIN LARGELY INTACT...AND AFTER 06Z...AS VSBY ALSO
IMPROVES WITH FALLING TEMPS...ALL AIRPORTS WILL MOVE INTO VFR
RANGE.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 2000 FEET.

A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TUE BREAKS DOWN WED...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE TROF...AND THE WIND PATTERNS SETTING UP ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.  ANOTHER LOW LATE WED INTO THU
THREATENS THE AIRPORTS WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON THU.

OUTLOOK....
MON PM-WED AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED PM-THU...VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 181444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIN
LUTHER KING HOLIDAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENA TOOK PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN SARATOGA
COUNTY LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INTENSE BAND
OF SNOW SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4.5 TO 7.0 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED
FROM THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. THE INTENSE
BAND OF SNOW WHICH IS MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH HAD SSE
WINDS 20-25 KTS AT 2 KFT BUT SSW WINDS 20-25 KTS AT 3-5 KFT. WHILE
THIS MAY NOT BE THE ONLY REASON...IT CLEARLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THIS
VERY SMALL MESOSCALE EVENT. THUS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY WHICH WAS ISSUED AT 837 AM
EST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 337 AM...THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP WITH 00Z H500 HEIGHTS AND RAOB DATA OVERLAYED THIS MORNING
SHOWS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
MI. THIS CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AROUND THE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER SFC LOW. SOME
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE CLIPPER.
SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING A SECONDARY WAVE TO FORM TODAY OFF THE
NJ COAST...BUT ITS IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO THE ALY FCST AREA.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL WITH THE PRIMARY LOW/CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER NOONTIME...EXCEPT ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG V-COMPONENT ANOMALY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION.

WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 3-6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE TOTALS REFLECT AN INCH OR TWO THAT WILL HAVE
FALLEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.  WE THINK ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN
GREENS...BERKS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM TWO
TENTHS TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. WE UTILIZED SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 15:1 FOR THE ONSET THIS MORNING...THEN LOWERED TO 12:1
BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO BE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE DRY SLOT COMES FOR MOST OF
NY BY 18Z. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIKELY THROW ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
KEEP THE SNOW GOING...SAY FROM THE TACONICS EAST. WE LOWERED POPS TO
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE PM...AND
KEPT CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
BALMY TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FCST AREA IS CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY LOW BECOMES STACKED/OCCLUDED BETWEEN
GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES N/NE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE GENERATING A PRETTY GOOD SNOWSTORM FOR NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WE BELIEVE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
S/SW FLOW...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
CLASSIC MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENT ZONE SET UP FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.  THE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS....WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SRN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
POSSIBILITIES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE
GFSMOS MIN TEMPS WERE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NGM/NAM
GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A LITTLE FRESH SNOW
COVER...WE FELT IT WAS TOO COLD...AND WENT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFSMOS VALUES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS.

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH LITTLE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND IT. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EAST-
WEST SFC DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STARTS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS MIGRATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST MONDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS DECREASES TUE PM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGING.
HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS HANDLING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED. THE
DIFFERENCES GROW OUT IN TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY AROUND NOON AS THE STEADY
SNOW MOVES OFF TO EAST. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AND SOUTHERLY MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING.

VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 25 KNOT WIND AT 2000 FEET AND BUFKIT
MODEL DATA INDICATED AROUND 30 KNOTS. KEPT LLWS IN TAF INTO MID
MORNING AFTER THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...VFR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 181151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIN
LUTHER KING HOLIDAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH 00Z H500 HEIGHTS AND RAOB DATA OVERLAYED
THIS MORNING SHOWS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER MI. THIS CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLIPPER SFC LOW. SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SET UP OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
THE CLIPPER. SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING A SECONDARY WAVE TO FORM TODAY
OFF THE NJ COAST...BUT ITS IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO THE ALY FCST
AREA.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL WITH THE PRIMARY LOW/CLIPPER. AT 08Z...THE RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SNOW SHIELD FORMING WITH THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATING. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 295K ISENTROPIC SFC /FROM THE
NAM80 AND GFS/...SHOWS PRETTY GOOD LIFT ALONG THAT ISENTROPE BASED
ON THE PRESSURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO NOONTIME. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER NOONTIME...EXCEPT ACROSS
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG V-COMPONENT ANOMALY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT STAYS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION.

WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 3-6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE TOTALS REFLECT AN INCH OR TWO THAT WILL HAVE
FALLEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.  WE THINK ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN
GREENS...BERKS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM TWO
TENTHS TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. WE UTILIZED SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 15:1 FOR THE ONSET THIS MORNING...THEN LOWERED TO 12:1
BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO BE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE DRY SLOT COMES FOR MOST OF
NY BY 18Z. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIKELY THROW ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
KEEP THE SNOW GOING...SAY FROM THE TACONICS EAST. WE LOWERED POPS TO
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE PM...AND
KEPT CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
BALMY TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FCST AREA IS CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY LOW BECOMES STACKED/OCCLUDED BETWEEN
GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES N/NE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE GENERATING A PRETTY GOOD SNOWSTORM FOR NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WE BELIEVE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
S/SW FLOW...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
CLASSIC MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENT ZONE SET UP FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.  THE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS....WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SRN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
POSSIBILITIES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE
GFSMOS MIN TEMPS WERE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NGM/NAM
GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A LITTLE FRESH SNOW
COVER...WE FELT IT WAS TOO COLD...AND WENT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFSMOS VALUES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS.

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH LITTLE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND IT. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EAST-
WEST SFC DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STARTS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS MIGRATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST MONDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS DECREASES TUE PM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGING.
HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS HANDLING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED. THE
DIFFERENCES GROW OUT IN TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY SNOW ACROSS LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY AROUND NOON AS THE STEADY
SNOW MOVES OFF TO EAST. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AND SOUTHERLY MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING.

VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 25 KNOT WIND AT 2000 FEET AND BUFKIT
MODEL DATA INDICATED AROUND 30 KNOTS. KEPT LLWS IN TAF INTO MID
MORNING AFTER THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...VFR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 180837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIN
LUTHER KING HOLIDAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH 00Z H500 HEIGHTS AND RAOB DATA OVERLAYED
THIS MORNING SHOWS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER MI. THIS CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLIPPER SFC LOW. SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SET UP OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
THE CLIPPER. SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING A SECONDARY WAVE TO FORM TODAY
OFF THE NJ COAST...BUT ITS IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO THE ALY FCST
AREA.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL WITH THE PRIMARY LOW/CLIPPER. AT 08Z...THE RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SNOW SHIELD FORMING WITH THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATING. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 295K ISENTROPIC SFC /FROM THE
NAM80 AND GFS/...SHOWS PRETTY GOOD LIFT ALONG THAT ISENTROPE BASED
ON THE PRESSURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO NOONTIME. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER NOONTIME...EXCEPT ACROSS
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG V-COMPONENT ANOMALY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT STAYS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION.

WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 3-6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE TOTALS REFLECT AN INCH OR TWO THAT WILL HAVE
FALLEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.  WE THINK ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN
GREENS...BERKS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM TWO
TENTHS TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. WE UTILIZED SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 15:1 FOR THE ONSET THIS MORNING...THEN LOWERED TO 12:1
BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO BE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE DRY SLOT COMES FOR MOST OF
NY BY 18Z. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIKELY THROW ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
KEEP THE SNOW GOING...SAY FROM THE TACONICS EAST. WE LOWERED POPS TO
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE PM...AND
KEPT CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
BALMY TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FCST AREA IS CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY LOW BECOMES STACKED/OCCLUDED BETWEEN
GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES N/NE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE GENERATING A PRETTY GOOD SNOWSTORM FOR NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WE BELIEVE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
S/SW FLOW...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
CLASSIC MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENT ZONE SET UP FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.  THE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS....WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SRN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
POSSIBILITIES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE
GFSMOS MIN TEMPS WERE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NGM/NAM
GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A LITTLE FRESH SNOW
COVER...WE FELT IT WAS TOO COLD...AND WENT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFSMOS VALUES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS.

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH LITTLE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND IT. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EAST-
WEST SFC DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STARTS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS MIGRATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. SCT TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST MONDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS DECREASES TUE PM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGING.
HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS HANDLING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED. THE
DIFFERENCES GROW OUT IN TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO IFR AS STEADY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HAVE INDICATED
THE SHOWER THREAT WITH VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND SPEED OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WITH UP TO 10 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KALB. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH AROUND
30 KNOTS OF WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 2000 FEET. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...VFR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 180603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE FLURRIES ACTIVITY BEGINNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A LOT OF VIRGA IN BETWEEN. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ACCUMULATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT MEASURABLE SNOW TO
ERUPT OUR FORECAST AREA BY...OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST PLACES PROBABLY HAVE "BOTTOMED" OUT FOR THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SINCE A THIN
SPOT IN THE CLOUDS COULD STILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES.

ALL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS WELL SEEN IN THE
850MB THERMAL ADVECTION DELTA CHANGE WITH GREATER THAN 40 KNTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEN ON THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE
285K SURFACE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WITH NET ADIABATIC
ISENTROPIC OMEGA SIGNALING STRONG LIFT AND SNOW TO DEVELOP RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1-2 G/KG ON THE 285K
SURFACE COINCIDING WITH THE LIFT SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW RATIOS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20:1.

BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 2-3 G/KG SEEN ON
THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4" EVEN THOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DECLINING THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS. FOR NY
COUNTIES...SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHES CUTTING OFF FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW SO ONLY AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED /THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION/ AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WAS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT WFOS.

AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. TRENDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRACK THIS SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST LEAVING A
CUL-REGION ACROSS NY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUR ADJACENT
NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE
FURTHER INLAND FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NY STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MESOSCALE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS. TUE MAX TEMPS IN M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS TUE NT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
VALLEYS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. WED MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WED NT LOW WILL BE AROUND 10 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR ZERO
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WAA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS AND M20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS ECMWF AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT OF
TIMING AND SPEED. ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER TRACK WITH
THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRI. WHILE GFS HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/FRI. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP
AFFECTING EASTERN NY BY 18Z/FRI. GFS FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK TO ECMWF
WITH LOW ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID
TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE VALLEYS AND DOWN TO -10 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP AND A STEADY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 10-16Z. THEREAFTER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HAVE
INDICATED THE SHOWER THREAT WITH VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND SPEED OF
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WITH UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS KALB. THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH AROUND
30 KNOTS OF WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 2000 FEET. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...VFR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVER GAGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD BE A FEW ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE
ALBANY NWS CRITERIA FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

AVIATION...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
929 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE FLURRIES ACTIVITY BEGINNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A LOT OF VIRGA IN BETWEEN. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ACCUMULATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT MEASURABLE SNOW TO
ERUPT OUR FORECAST AREA BY...OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST PLACES PROBABLY HAVE "BOTTOMED" OUT FOR THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SINCE A THIN
SPOT IN THE CLOUDS COULD STILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES.

ALL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS WELL SEEN IN THE
850MB THERMAL ADVECTION DELTA CHANGE WITH GREATER THAN 40 KNTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEN ON THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE
285K SURFACE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WITH NET ADIABATIC
ISENTROPIC OMEGA SIGNALING STRONG LIFT AND SNOW TO DEVELOP RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1-2 G/KG ON THE 285K
SURFACE COINCIDING WITH THE LIFT SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW RATIOS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20:1.

BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 2-3 G/KG SEEN ON
THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4" EVEN THOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DECLINING THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS. FOR NY
COUNTIES...SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHES CUTTING OFF FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW SO ONLY AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED /THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION/ AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WAS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT WFOS.

AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. TRENDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRACK THIS SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST LEAVING A
CUL-REGION ACROSS NY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUR ADJACENT
NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE
FURTHER INLAND FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NY STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MESOSCALE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS. TUE MAX TEMPS IN M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS TUE NT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
VALLEYS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. WED MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WED NT LOW WILL BE AROUND 10 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR ZERO
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WAA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS AND M20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS ECMWF AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT OF
TIMING AND SPEED. ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER TRACK WITH
THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRI. WHILE GFS HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/FRI. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP
AFFECTING EASTERN NY BY 18Z/FRI. GFS FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK TO ECMWF
WITH LOW ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID
TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE VALLEYS AND DOWN TO -10 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS (KGFL/KALB/KPOU). THEN...CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL OUT OF THEM AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR. LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IFR TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MVR THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT (A LITTLE STRONGER AT
KALB FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10KTS...LESS AT KGF/KPOU). HOWEVER...AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET UP TO ABOUT 40KTS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN THE DAY.


OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...CIG...SCT -SHSN.
TUE...VFR...CHC -SHSN.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVER GAGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD BE A FEW ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE
ALBANY NWS CRITERIA FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 172330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER VORTEX ROTATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL
TRENDS ON THE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST CLOUD TOP WARMING AND UPSTREAM
RADAR SHOWING A BROKEN PRECIP PATTERN WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS ON
THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES. SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...LATEST RUC13
AND ASSOCIATED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY INCREASING BUT REMAINING DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TOWARD
03Z /10PM/ THE COLUMN IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENS UP FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...TEMPS MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A STEADY OR SLOW RISE OCCURS WITH THE INCREASE
IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS WELL SEEN IN THE
850MB THERMAL ADVECTION DELTA CHANGE WITH GREATER THAN 40 KNTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEN ON THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE
285K SURFACE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WITH NET ADIABATIC
ISENTROPIC OMEGA SIGNALING STRONG LIFT AND SNOW TO DEVELOP RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1-2 G/KG ON THE 285K
SURFACE COINCIDING WITH THE LIFT SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW RATIOS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20:1.

BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 2-3 G/KG SEEN ON
THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4" EVEN THOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DECLINING THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS. FOR NY
COUNTIES...SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHES CUTTING OFF FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW SO ONLY AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED /THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION/ AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WAS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT WFOS.

AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. TRENDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRACK THIS SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST LEAVING A
CUL-REGION ACROSS NY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUR ADJACENT
NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE
FURTHER INLAND FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NY STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MESOSCALE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS. TUE MAX TEMPS IN M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS TUE NT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
VALLEYS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. WED MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WED NT LOW WILL BE AROUND 10 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR ZERO
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WAA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS AND M20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS ECMWF AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT OF
TIMING AND SPEED. ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER TRACK WITH
THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRI. WHILE GFS HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/FRI. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP
AFFECTING EASTERN NY BY 18Z/FRI. GFS FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK TO ECMWF
WITH LOW ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID
TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE VALLEYS AND DOWN TO -10 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS (KGFL/KALB/KPOU). THEN...CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL OUT OF THEM AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR. LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IFR TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MVR THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT (A LITTLE STRONGER AT
KALB FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10KTS...LESS AT KGF/KPOU). HOWEVER...AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET UP TO ABOUT 40KTS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN THE DAY.


OUTLOOK....
MON...MVFR...CIG...SCT -SHSN.
TUE...VFR...CHC -SHSN.
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVER GAGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD BE A FEW ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE
ALBANY NWS CRITERIA FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
AVIATION...HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 172103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER VORTEX ROTATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL
TRENDS ON THE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST CLOUD TOP WARMING AND UPSTREAM
RADAR SHOWING A BROKEN PRECIP PATTERN WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS ON
THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES. SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...LATEST RUC13
AND ASSOCIATED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY INCREASING BUT REMAINING DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TOWARD
03Z /10PM/ THE COLUMN IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENS UP FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...TEMPS MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A STEADY OR SLOW RISE OCCURS WITH THE INCREASE
IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS WELL SEEN IN THE
850MB THERMAL ADVECTION DELTA CHANGE WITH GREATER THAN 40 KNTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEN ON THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE
285K SURFACE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WITH NET ADIABATIC
ISENTROPIC OMEGA SIGNALING STRONG LIFT AND SNOW TO DEVELOP RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1-2 G/KG ON THE 285K
SURFACE COINCIDING WITH THE LIFT SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW RATIOS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20:1.

BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 2-3 G/KG SEEN ON
THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4" EVEN THOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DECLINING THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS. FOR NY
COUNTIES...SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHES CUTTING OFF FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW SO ONLY AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED /THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION/ AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WAS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT WFOS.

AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY EVENING. TRENDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRACK THIS SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST LEAVING A
CUL-REGION ACROSS NY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUR ADJACENT
NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE
FURTHER INLAND FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NY STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MESOSCALE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS. TUE MAX TEMPS IN M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS TUE NT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
VALLEYS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. WED MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WED NT LOW WILL BE AROUND 10 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR ZERO
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WAA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS AND M20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS ECMWF AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT OF
TIMING AND SPEED. ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER TRACK WITH
THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRI. WHILE GFS HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/FRI. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP
AFFECTING EASTERN NY BY 18Z/FRI. GFS FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK TO ECMWF
WITH LOW ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID
TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE VALLEYS AND DOWN TO -10 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD JUST ABOUT COVER THE
SKIES OF ALL THREE AIRPORTS BY SUNDOWN.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...SPREADING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT /06Z/.  BY
08Z...ALL LOCATIONS ARE DOWN TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY...BOTTOMING OUT AT
IFR BY DAYBREAK.

THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH TO MAINE.
THIS LOW WILL DRAW MUCH OF THE ENERGY AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SYSTEM...BUT WRAPAROUND FROM THE COMBINED SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS KEEPS
A CHC OF -SHSN IN REACH.  A WELL-SHEARED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
BY LATE MON...PRECLUDING ANY LAKE EFFECT FROM DEVELOPING.  SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...BUT LIGHT...BY WED...WITH A RETURN
TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY UP ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK....
SUN PM...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR SLGT CHC -SHSN.
MON...MVFR SCT -SHSN.
MON NGT-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVER GAGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD BE A FEW ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE
ALBANY NWS CRITERIA FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHD/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...SND/11

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 171751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING SNOW INTO THE
REGION.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FOR THE MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST AS WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 9 AM. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WELL AS WIND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE STILL VERY COLD....BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS YESTERDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...A QUIET AND COLD MID JANUARY DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WRN ADIRONDACKS. THE INLAND EXTENT OF LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED BY THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. 925
HPA TEMPS OF -17C TO -18C WILL STILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS IN
MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TIED TO A CLIPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE W-CNTRL GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL TO COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EAST. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CAN REG WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES
WEST OF THE TACONICS...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND LIKELY VALUES
EAST.

WE ARE EXPECTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH
THE DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MINS TEMPS ARE TRICKY...AND WILL LIKELY BE WET BULB
VALUES...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE COMMON.

SUNDAY...THE GFS/MREF PLUME MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF THE QPF WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH A QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF
AN INCH. THE NAM/SREFS/CAN REG ARE THE DRIEST WITH A TENTH OR TWO.
THE UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATED TWO TO THREE TENTHS ARE LIKELY. THE
GFS OVERDID TH QPF BADLY WITH THE LAST SYSTEM ON THU...AND HAS BEEN
VERY WET THE PAST FEW WEEKS. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THE HPC GUIDANCE. WE BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A 2 TO 4
INCH EVENT...WITH PERHAPS SOME 3-6 INCH TOTALS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SRN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR A LATE SECOND AND THIRD PERIOD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY CLIPPERS PRODUCE ONLY 1-4 INCHES OVER OUR FCST
AREA. WE WILL STICK WITH THE 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR NOW. WE WILL STILL
MENTION A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HWO. THE GFS IS COUNTING
ON WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NEAR LONG ISLAND FOR THE HIGHER
TOTALS. IT SEEMS TO BE ON ITS OWN. HIGH TEMPS WILL FEEL BALMY
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE TRUNCATED THE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES...AS WE MAY GET
INTO A DRY SLOT...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY /MREFS SHOW SMALL
V-COMP ANOMALY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW NEAR
MAINE....AND THE OLD CLIPPER AND ITS INCIPIENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
NEW WAVE FORMING AND BRUSHING THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. WE LEANED
AWAY FROM THE GFS WITH THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH KEEPING THE SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

MLK DAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND WITH A COATING TO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO GET CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH H850 TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS TO START OFF WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINAL MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS REGION AND OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK....DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OUT WEST AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS
MAINTAINED OVER REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS
HANDLING THE SURGE OF ENERGY OUT OF WESTERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK
AND SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. OVERALL DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK AFTER
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD JUST ABOUT COVER THE
SKIES OF ALL THREE AIRPORTS BY SUNDOWN.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...SPREADING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT /06Z/.  BY
08Z...ALL LOCATIONS ARE DOWN TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY...BOTTOMING OUT AT
IFR BY DAYBREAK.

THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH TO MAINE.
THIS LOW WILL DRAW MUCH OF THE ENERGY AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SYSTEM...BUT WRAPAROUND FROM THE COMBINED SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS KEEPS
A CHC OF -SHSN IN REACH.  A WELL-SHEARED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
BY LATE MON...PRECLUDING ANY LAKE EFFECT FROM DEVELOPING.  SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...BUT LIGHT...BY WED...WITH A RETURN
TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY UP ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK....
SUN PM...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR SLGT CHC -SHSN.
MON...MVFR SCT -SHSN.
MON NGT-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WOULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE ALBANY NWS CRITERIA
FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR
LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTH
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER
ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE
UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN.
SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS
OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH COVERS OUR ENTIRE
HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER CONTENT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...IAA/DIRIENZO