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000 FXUS64 KOUN 091530 AAA AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .UPDATE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAFS - MODEL RH PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PERSISTENT LAYER OF SATURATION IN 850-700 MB LAYER WITH MAINLY DRY AIR BELOW... THUS PREVAILING VFR CIGS 5K-10K FT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. -RA/-SHRA STILL POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY SE OF THE TAF SITES. MDT NE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL DECREASE/VEER UNDER SFC RIDGE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... FOCUS AGAIN IS ON THE FIRST 4-5 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO EARLIER NEED TO BRING MAIN RESOURCES TO BEAR ON EXISTING STRONG CONVECTION. COOLER DRIER AIR NOW OVERSPREADING AREA ON BRISK NE WINDS. CLOUDS/MOISTURE ALOFT... ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION... LIKELY TO RESULT IN VERY LIMITED WARMUP TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS... MOSTLY LIGHT... WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS S/CENTRAL/E PARTS OF THE AREA. UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO MORE WNW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH W-E FRONT ACROSS TX AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR EITHER A SE-WARD PROPAGATING MCS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA... OR AT LEAST MORE WIDESPREAD IF LESS- ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION. 06Z NAM SUGGESTS MORE BACKED N/NE LOW- LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT FARTHER S OVER S TX... BUT 00Z GFS/ECMWF QPFS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF SOMETHING MOVING SE AND TRAVERSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HPC QPF SHOWS A SIMILAR SIGNAL... AND ON THAT BASIS WE HAVE RAISED THE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND IS UNCHANGED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 53 65 51 / 40 30 40 60 HOBART OK 65 50 63 49 / 20 20 30 60 WICHITA FALLS TX 68 54 69 52 / 20 30 30 50 GAGE OK 66 44 63 42 / 20 20 30 50 PONCA CITY OK 66 47 62 48 / 40 20 40 40 DURANT OK 68 58 70 53 / 40 60 40 50 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/32