The Contingency Planning Process

Main steps in the FEWS NET Contingency Planning Process

Below is a model contingency planning process for humanitarian crises. Each step in the process is presented, along with some of the major issues associated with the step.

Early warning
Early warning triggers the contingency planning process. When the first signs of an emerging crisis are detected, contingency planning should begin or existing relevant contingency plans should be updated. For example, when the first signs of drought are detected in an area where people are already food insecure, planning for a food security crisis should begin.

Early warning also triggers the implementation of the contingency plans developed and preparedness actions identified during the planning process. In other words, when signs of an emerging crisis are detected, response measures – outlined in a contingency plan – should be implemented. Following the example above, when monitoring shows crop and pasture failure as the result of a drought, responses such as food aid, livestock health interventions, seeds and input support, etc. should start to be implemented, according to the plan and the needs.

Coordinating and preparing the contingency planning process
An effective contingency planning process involves multiple actors, be they different offices or staff members in one organization or staff from different organizations. To ensure that these actors are efficiently integrated into a productive planning process, it is necessary to make a plan for how to develop a contingency plan: who will do what, when and how?

Context analysis, hazard and risk analysis
Planning for potential situations requires a good understanding of the hazards facing a population and the risks that population faces as a result. Therefore, the first step in a contingency planning process is to gain a clear understanding of these hazards and associated risks. This is done by collecting and analyzing reports, maps, baseline data and other sources of information on the hazards faced in a country or region. It also involves discussing the issues with relevant experts and organizations, such as government ministries.

Contingency prioritization
Contingency planning can be an intensive process and often one that is carried out in a busy environment, where people have limited time and resources to dedicate to the process. Therefore, planners need to select a small number of contingencies and scenarios to plan for. Criteria for making this decision often include how serious the crisis could be; how likely the situation is; and whether planning for one event could help respond to another (for example planning for a hurricane may help in responding to flooding in the same area).

Scenario building
Once you know what you are going to plan for, it is necessary to develop a scenario. A scenario is a set of assumptions about what will happen as the result of the contingency (hazard, threat or situation) you are planning for. For example, how many people will be affected? How will they be affected? Where are they located? How long will they be affected? Based on these assumptions, plans are developed. Scenario building is perhaps the most difficult step in the contingency planning process, because it involves defining what is likely to happen in the future, where there are almost infinite possibilities. Experience shows that developing flexible scenarios that support the development of easily adaptable plans is the best approach.

Develop contingency plan(s)
Based on the developed scenarios, planners make decisions about what they will do to address the situation they have described. For example, if a scenario estimates that 100,000 people will be food insecure and unable to meet their food needs for six months, a food aid program for that period could be conceived. Contingency plans should go beyond defining response options and include an analysis of what would be required to implement a response programmatically, operationally, logistically and administratively. Contingency plans should also include an estimate of how much a given response will cost.

Implementation of follow-up and preparedness actions
During the contingency planning process, actions that would increase preparedness or need following up inevitably emerge. A good contingency planning process will ensure that these issues are recorded, prioritized and implemented. The implementation of preparedness actions can be the most important part of contingency planning and will improve the quality and speed of a response. Without this follow-up, contingency planning remains an interesting paper exercise.

Update contingency plans
Contingency plans become outdated as events overtake the original assumptions. Therefore, contingency plans need to be regularly updated to ensure they are relevant. Moreover, regularly updating contingency plans is one way to facilitate the continuation of the process and the relationships developed during the process.

Activate contingency plans
When a crisis materializes, contingency plans need to be implemented. Normally, an emergency assessment should be undertaken and used to validate or repudiate the assumptions made in the contingency plan. Based on the results of the assessment, the contingency plan should be adapted, converted into a response plan, and implemented.