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This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-332) November 10, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on December 12, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
November 10, 1997
UNITED STATES: An unusually early blizzard and record low temperatures hit
the central Plains in late October, not only halting fieldwork but also
causing significant livestock loss in Colorado. Corn and soybean harvesting
progressed ahead of average. Wet weather delayed cotton harvesting in the
Southeast and slowed fieldwork in the Northwest . Generally favorable
conditions prevailed in the Southwest and the northern Plains.
SOUTH AMERICA: In southern Brazil, excessive rain in early October caused
flooding and slowed soybean planting. The rains also reduced winter wheat
quality and caused some crop damage. Showers boosted topsoil moisture in the
center-west for soybean planting. In central Argentina, above-normal October
rainfall increased topsoil moisture for summer crop planting and reproductive
winter wheat, especially in Santa Fe.
EUROPE: Mostly dry weather since mid-October in England, France, Germany, and
northern Italy benefitted summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting.
In eastern Europe, unseasonably cold, dry weather limited winter wheat
establishment in Hungary and Slovakia, while cold, wet weather in southern
Romania and Bulgaria slowed summer crop harvesting and late winter wheat
planting. Periodic showers and cold weather in northern Greece hampered
cotton harvesting.
FSU-WESTERN: Above-normal precipitation in October in Ukraine and Russia
hampered summer crop harvesting but provided abundant moisture for winter
grain development. Winter grains in the north entered dormancy by late
October at typical dates. Below-normal temperatures since mid-October in
Ukraine and southern Russia limited winter grain establishment.
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: Preparations for winter grain planting were taking place
in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Early-season rains in Algeria and Tunisia
likely prompted early winter grain planting.
SOUTH AFRICA: October rainfall promoted planting in northern and eastern
sections of the corn belt. However, southern corn areas remain too dry for
planting. More rain is needed across the corn belt and in coastal sugarcane
areas for normal development, as early-season rains have so far been sporadic.
Elsewhere, persistent warmth and dryness enabled rapid dry down of winter
wheat in Western Cape, but locally heavy rain raised some quality concerns on
the eastern edge of the crop area.
SOUTH ASIA: Despite the monsoon's withdrawal, unseasonable, locally heavy
showers continued from Pakistan to central India. While increasing long-term
moisture reserves for winter grains and oilseeds, the rain kept maturing
summer crops unfavorably wet. Greatest concern was for cotton.
EASTERN ASIA: Below-normal October rainfall reduced moisture for winter wheat
germination but hastened summer crop harvesting across the North China Plain.
Supplemental irrigation will be needed for adequate wheat establishment.
Below-normal rainfall favored rice harvesting across most of the Korean
Peninsula and southern Japan.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Drought continued across Java and southern Sumatra during
October, delaying main-season rice planting. Above-normal October showers
boosted moisture supplies for second-season crops across northern Thailand and
Vietnam, but slowed main-season crop harvesting. Typhoon Ivan hit northern
Luzon on October 19, bringing needed rain but causing minor crop damage. The
northern and central Philippines experienced below-normal October rainfall.
AUSTRALIA: In October, a drying trend benefitted maturing winter grains and
promoted sorghum and cotton planting. However, immature wheat and barley
across the southeast required additional rainfall for normal development as
periods of unreasonable warmth accelerated growth. In early November, soaking
rains across the southeast provided most winter grains with adequate moisture
for the remainder of the season. Highly beneficial rain also covered summer
crop areas of southern Queensland, favoring crop establishment.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
WEATHER BRIEFS
ARGENTINA: CROPS FAVORED BY SEASONAL RAINFALL
During September 1997 near- to above-normal rainfall favored vegetative winter
wheat in central Argentina. However, below-normal rainfall prevailed across
Santa Fe, reducing soil moisture for vegetative wheat. During October 1 - 11,
light to moderate rain favored reproductive winter wheat and boosted topsoil
moisture for early corn and sunflower planting in central Argentina. Above-
normal temperatures aided summer crop germination. During October 12 - 18,
widespread rain helped reproductive and filling winter wheat. However, the
moisture slowed corn and sunflower planting. During the week of October 19 -
25, drier weather, supported summer crop planting across Buenos Aires. In
Santa Fe, rain increased soil moisture reserves which had been tending below
average. Moderate showers benefitted germinating cotton across northern
Argentina. From October 26 through November 1, widespread rain covered
central Argentina, boosting topsoil moisture for summer crop planting and
reproductive winter wheat. Heavier rain fell across northern Argentina,
boosting moisture supplies for cotton. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
continued to favor crop germination and development. During November 2-8,
somewhat drier weather assisted sunflower, corn, and cotton planting.
INDONESIA: DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS JAVA AND SUMATRA
During September 1997, drought intensified across Java and southern Sumatra,
where only scattered rainfall was reported. During October 1 - 11, drought
remained entrenched across Java and southern Sumatra, reducing moisture for
the upcoming main-season rice crop. Showers boosted moisture supplies across
Malaysia and the remainder of Indonesia. During the week of October 12 - 18,
isolated moderate showers brought little drought relief to Java and southern
Sumatra. From October 26 through November 8, mostly dry weather prevailed
across southern Sumatra and Java. Indonesia's main-season rice, typically
planted from October through January, will face planting delays and moisture
shortages unless the rainy season begins soon. Typically, rainfall should
increase markedly during November and December in Java, though amounts may
continue to be well below normal through February due to the El Nino.
TURKEY: SEASONAL RAINFALL
During September and early October, rainfall was above normal across western
and southern Turkey. Heavy rainfall favored the establishment of winter
wheat, but hurt the quality of cotton. From mid-October to early November,
western and southern Turkey has been mostly dry. During this time rainfall
was more frequent across eastern Turkey, benefitting winter wheat
establishment.
PRODUCTION BRIEFS
AUSTRALIA: 1997/98 WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST IMPROVES
Australia's 1997/98 wheat production is forecast at 17.5 million tons, up 0.5
million from last month's estimate, but 25 percent less than last year's
record crop of 23.6. Area is forecast at 10.8 million hectares, unchanged
from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. The month-to-month
yield increase reflects improved growing conditions in South Australia and
Western Australia. This season's yield forecast of 1.62 tons per hectare is 6
percent below the 5-year average of 1.73 tons per hectare. During the final
week of October heavy rains occurred in the southeastern growing regions,
ending nearly 3 weeks of dryness. Australian state agronomists indicated that
this rainfall came at the end of a critical window for crop development and
aided grain fill, but due to the advanced stage of the wheat, its full benefit
may not have been realized. Western Australia, which historically produces 40
percent of Australia's wheat, is projected to produce another bumper harvest
with yields estimated at a record level.
Cumulative precipitation in many of Australia's growing areas has been below
normal and has resulted in varying degrees of crop stress throughout the
season. Harvesting is underway in Queensland and northern New South Wales,
while in South Australia and Victoria wheat harvesting begins in early
December. Crop conditions in Western Australia remain favorable.
AUSTRALIA: 1997/98 BARLEY PRODUCTION FORECAST IMPROVES
Australian barley production for 1997/98 is forecast at 5.2 million tons, up
11 percent or 0.5 tons from last month's estimate. Area is forecast at 3.2
million hectares unchanged from last month and only slightly below last year.
Yield is forecast of 1.63 metric tons per hectare for 1997/98 reflecting
improved growing conditions in South Australia and Western Australia. Heavy
rains occurred during the final week of October in the southeastern growing
regions, ending nearly 3 weeks of dryness. Australian state agronomists
determined the rainfall came at the end of a critical window for crop growth,
aiding grain fill, but due to the advanced stage of development, the crop may
not realize the rain's maximum benefit. Barley production in Western
Australia, which historically produces 30 percent of Australia's barley, is
projected at a record level.
INDONESIA: LONG DRY SEASON REDUCES THIRD RICE CROP
A long dry season this year (attributed to El Nino) has reduced the prospects
for Indonesia's third rice crop. The effect on the 1996/97 crop (harvested
Jan.-Dec. 1997) was limited by the fact that the rains did not stop until May-
June which allowed for an excellent main-season harvest in February-March and
conditions were generally favorable for the second-crop rice harvested in
July-August. These first two harvests account for just under 80 percent of
Indonesia's annual rice production. However, the third crop, grown in the
last trimester of the year, was reduced by below normal precipitation. Total
production for 1996/97 on a milled basis is estimated at 32.0 million tons,
down from the October estimate of 32.9 million tons. Yield is forecast lower
as harvested area is estimated unchanged at 11.3 million hectares.
INDONESIA: CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
Corn production for 1997/98 is estimated at 6.5 million tons, down from 7.0
million in October and equal to the estimate for 1996/97. Area is estimated
at 3.5 million hectares, down from 3.6 million in October, and down marginally
from 1996/97. Yield is estimated at 1.86 tons per hectare, up slightly from
1996/97. Despite reports of increasing use of hybrid seed, yields have not
shown a significant upward trend over the last decade. Rains, marking the end
of the dry season in East Java and South Sumatra, normally start picking up in
September and October, but have been delayed this year.
PAKISTAN: COTTON CROP SUFFERS STORM DAMAGE
Pakistan's 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 7.7 million bales, down 4
percent or 0.3 million bales from last month, but up 5 percent from last year.
Area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Yield is
forecast at 524 kilograms per hectare, only slightly below the 5-year average
of 526 kilograms. This month's reduction in forecast yield resulted from
severe rain storms which occurred in late October in northern Punjab. The
recent heavy rains and floods have generated stories of extensive damage;
however, recent assessments indicate only limited damage. Despite some
losses, crop conditions are significantly better than last year.
ITALY: CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWER
Italian corn production for 1997/98 is estimated at 9.5 million tons, down 5
percent from October, and virtually unchanged from 1996/97. Corn area this
year was nearly the same as last year. With the corn harvest complete, yield
is estimated at 9.1 tons per hectare, down from last year's record of 9.3 tons
per hectare. Below normal precipitation for planting was followed by
excessive rains in June. Mostly dry weather was the norm during late season
development with favorably dry weather occurring for harvest. Italy has seen
a large increase in corn yields in the last few years, reaching 8.0 tons per
hectare for the first time in 1992/93.
NIGERIA: PEANUT DATA SERIES REVISED
Information provided by the U.S. agricultural attache in Lagos resulted in a
re-evaluation of the data series for Nigerian peanut production. This month,
Nigeria's peanut production estimate for 1997/98 is revised to 1.75 million
tons, up from 0.25 million, and peanut harvested area is raised to 2.00
million hectares from 0.50 million. Similarly, 1996/97 production and area
are revised upward to 1.72 from 0.25 million tons and to 1.83 from 0.50
million hectares. Increases also have been made to previous year's estimates.
Peanuts have gradually been gaining popularity across the savanna zone of
Nigeria over the years. Area planted to peanuts for 1997/98 is estimated to
have increased 10 percent from 1996/97; however, output is estimated to
increase 2 percent. A reduction in yield is due to the non-availability of
fertilizers and improved seed varieties. There were no reported incidences of
major pest or disease outbreaks this season; however, there were reports of
minor damage from armyworm and termite attacks in some states.
UNITED STATES: CROP CONDITION AND PROGRESS
Very warm, dry weather in the eastern United States provided excellent harvest
conditions the first half of October. In the Corn Belt, soybean growers
harvested their crop at a near-record pace. As soybean harvest finished,
farmers immediately switched to harvesting the Nation's corn acreage. At
mid-month, a killing frost and an early-season snowstorm provided the
necessary conditions for drying the corn crop. Heavy snow slowed harvest for
several days in the western Corn Belt. After moisture levels dropped, harvest
activity surged ahead of the normal pace. Soybean harvest was slowed by
late-month showers in the Southeast. Some grain storage shortages were
encountered as grain bins filled rapidly and some elevators were forced to use
temporary storage facilities.
Cotton harvest progressed ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing
States, but behind normal in eastern States. Unseasonably hot weather in the
Southwest helped cotton fields to dry out after Tropical Storm Nora.
Much-needed heat helped the Texas crop progress early in the month. However,
heavy rains and flooding caused lint loss and damage to quality at mid-month.
Farmers in the Southeast harvested cotton, rice and peanuts between rains.
Rice harvest neared completion at mid-month and peanut harvest was in the
later stages by the end of October.
Favorable weather during early October allowed sorghum growers to harvest
ahead of the normal pace in the Plains and Corn Belt. However, the
early-season snowstorm on October 24-25 halted activity in Colorado, Nebraska,
and Kansas. Harvest of fall-season crops proceeded under favorable conditions
in the northern Plains most of the month, but above-normal precipitation
hampered fieldwork in the Northwest. Early-month moisture fell along the
middle and northern Atlantic Coast, but came too late to help most crops.
Late-month showers hampered harvest efforts in these States.
Early in the month, very warm, dry weather allowed planting of the 1998 winter
wheat crop to progress rapidly in many States, especially Kansas, Oklahoma,
and Oregon. Planting also progressed rapidly in the Corn Belt as farmers
immediately followed a rapid fall harvest with winter wheat seeding. Later on,
a major early-season storm system brought blizzard conditions to the central
Plains and western Corn Belt, as well as rain to the southeastern United
States. Although planting was delayed by the storm, newly emerged fields
benefitted from the precipitation. Rainfall early and late in the month
benefitted seeded acreage in the Pacific Northwest.
FORMER SOVIET UNION: WEATHER AND CROP DEVELOPMENTS
In spring grain areas east of the Ural mountains, unseasonably dry weather
prevailed over most of Russia and Kazakstan during the period October 1-7,
helping late spring grain harvesting.
In crop areas west of the Ural mountains, wet weather continued in Russia,
Ukraine, the Baltics and Belarus in October. The precipitation in northern
Russia, the Baltics, and Belarus fell frequently during the month. More than
twice the normal amount of rain fell over the eastern half of Ukraine and
southern Russia (Central Black Soils Region, lower Volga Valley, and North
Caucasus), hampering corn, sunflower, and sugar beet harvesting and late
winter grain planting. About October 18, a drying trend began in Ukraine that
continued until month's end, improving conditions for fieldwork. Near-normal
temperatures prevailed over northern areas of Russia in October, allowing
further winter grain establishment prior to dormancy. By late October, winter
grains in northern Russia were in or entering dormancy with sufficient
hardening. In Ukraine and southern Russia, well below-normal temperatures
halted further vegetative growth of winter grains.
Since early November, light snow has fallen over winter grain areas from the
Baltic States and Belarus eastward through northern Russia. In Ukraine and
southern Russia, a mixture of light rain and snow was accompanied by continued
unseasonably cold weather, slowing late harvest activities and prompting
winter grains to begin entering dormancy. The continued cold weather in these
areas limited the establishment of late-planted crops.
Tom Puterbaugh 720-2012 (November 1997)
FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES
MAJOR WORLD COTTON PRODUCERS
World cotton production for 1997/98 is forecast at 90.2 million 480-pound
bales, up 1 percent from the 1996/97 crop. World area is forecast to increase
just under one-half a percent while yield is up a similar amount from a year
ago. The world's largest cotton producers, the United States and China, are
projected to account for 41 percent of global production, down from 43 percent
last year. The top seven producers of 1997/98, including the United States
and China, are expected to contribute 77 percent of the world cotton output
compared with 79 percent in 1996/97.
Although most of the major producers had large crops, Pakistan, Uzbekistan,
and Australia are the only major producers forecast to exceed last year's
output level. Production in the other major producers were down because of
insect damage, disease, drought, and/or floods. This report highlights the
top seven cotton producing nations which include the United States, China,
India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Australia. These countries are
estimated to produce 69.1 million bales of cotton this season and are ranked
based on estimated production for 1997/98.
United States: The United States is currently the world's largest cotton
producer. Output for 1997/98 is estimated at 18.8 million bales, down 0.1
million from last year. By late October, bolls were open on all the Nation's
cotton acreage and by early November cotton harvest had advanced to 71 percent
complete, slightly below last year's level but equaling the five-year average.
Cotton harvest progressed ahead of normal in the western States but behind
normal in the eastern States. Unseasonably hot weather in the Southwest
helped cotton fields to dry out after tropical storm Nora. Early in October,
much-needed high temperatures helped the Texas crop mature, allowing 62
percent of the crop to be harvested by early November. In the Delta States of
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee, the crop remained
in mostly fair to good condition during October. By mid-October, about
one-fourth of Mississippi's crop was rated in excellent condition, while
Arkansas had 17 percent in excellent condition. In early November, harvest
activities exceeded the 5-year average pace in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Louisiana had 98 percent of the crop harvested, 6 percent over the 5-year
average, while Mississippi producers were 85 percent complete, 1 percent above
average. Harvest in the other States was about three-fourths finished,
slightly behind their normal pace. In early November, Arizona's harvest was
64 percent complete, 4 percent below the five-year average, as rains during
the previous month slowed harvest activity. California's harvest in the
southern areas was slightly delayed from the rainfall associated with tropical
storm Nora, but harvest statewide was 9 percent ahead of the normal pace of 66
percent. Harvest was completed in the Imperial and Sacramento Valleys and
progressed normally in the San Joaquin Valley. In the Southeastern States of
Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, late October rains
delayed harvest. In North Carolina only 34 percent of the acreage was
harvested by early November, 21 percent behind the average and Georgia had 47
percent of the acreage harvested, compared to the an average of 58 percent.
South Carolina producers also lagged behind the average, harvesting only 41
percent, down 13 percent from the five-year average.
China: The world's second largest cotton producer is estimated to produce
nearly one-fifth of the global output this year, despite unfavorable growing
conditions on the North China Plain. China's 1997/98 cotton production is
estimated at 18.0 million bales, down 1.3 million or 7 percent from last year.
The projected yield of 871 kilograms per hectare is lower than last year's
near-record yield but higher than the 5-year average of 784 kilograms per
hectare. Serious drought in July and August stressed non-irrigated cotton in
several key cotton-producing provinces, including Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi.
Crop conditions improved in Jiangsu, Anhui, and eastern Shandong following
beneficial rain in August, but the weather continued unfavorably hot and dry
in the western part of the North China Plain. Bollworms were reported in
several prefectures in Shandong and Xinjiang, but the insect did not pose a
significant problem as in earlier years. High yields are projected in
Xinjiang Province which enjoyed normal weather this past summer.
Cotton area in China is forecast at 4.5 million hectares, down 5 percent from
last season and the lowest planted area since 1986. The area decline
continues a downward trend that began in 1995. Farmers reduced cotton area in
1997 for several reasons, including higher labor and production costs compared
to other crops, chronic problems with bollworm infestations, and government
policies that promoted grain production. Farmers also were discouraged by
stagnant cotton prices and tight government controls on the cotton industry.
However, cotton area continues to increase in the northwest Province of
Xinjiang, partially offsetting area movement to other crops on the North China
Plain. Xinjiang's soils and climate are well suited to cotton cultivation and
yields are among the highest in the country. Future area expansion in that
province will be limited by irrigation supplies, since it does not receive
enough annual rainfall to produce cotton without irrigation.
India: The 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 12.9 million bales, 6 percent
lower than the record crop of 13.8 million produced in 1996/97. Heavy rains
in northern India over the past month have reduced the crop to an estimated
12.9 million 480-pound-bales, down 0.2 million from last month. Rain in the
States of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan reduced quality and lowered yield
expectations. Total area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, 2 percent less
than last year's record 9.2 million. The forecast yield of 312 kilograms per
hectare is 5 percent lower than last year's record of 327 kilograms per
hectare, but only 1 percent higher than the five-year average. This year's
monsoon arrived two weeks later than normal, creating concerns of dryness for
some crop areas. Since that time, the rains have proven adequate. Monsoon
rains were beneficial for proper plant growth and encouraged additional late-
season planting activity in the central and southern states. The last areas
planted were small pockets in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, which
were sown during August and September. India's cotton crop continues to
progress well under favorable weather across the major cotton growing areas of
the central and southern regions. There were no reports of any major insect
infestations except for some minor incidences of bollworms and whiteflies in
the northern region.
Uzbekistan: Production in 1997/98 is estimated at 5.5 million bales, up 0.8
million or 16 percent from last year. Lint yield is forecast to rebound to
798 kilograms per hectare, up 16 percent from last year. Despite unusually
heavy rainfall during March and April that caused extensive replanting, the
cotton crop benefitted from above-average temperatures during June as the crop
advanced into the reproductive stage. Temperatures are above average so far
this harvest season which should allow for continued high yields. The 1996/97
crop was plagued by unfavorable weather from planting to harvesting. Just
after emergence, the crop was damaged by cool, wet conditions reducing yield
potential. Weather problems continued as late-season rains and cool weather
combined to reduce both quality and yield.
Pakistan: For 1997/98, the cotton crop is forecast at 7.7 million bales, up 5
percent from last year's insect-reduced crop. However, this forecast is down
0.3 million bales from last month as heavy rain in the northern cotton area of
the Punjab caused both yield and quality losses. Area is forecast at 3.2
million hectares, unchanged from 1996/97. Yield is forecast at 524 kilograms
per hectare, slightly below the five-year-average of 526 kilograms, but
substantially higher than the 497 kilograms per hectare for the 1996/97 insect
damaged crop. Weather, water availability, and low insect pressure have been
favorable for crop development and fruit formation compared to last year.
Irrigation water generally has been adequate. The availability of tube-well
water compensated for the shortages in some pockets of Punjab caused by a
canal breach. Widespread and well-spaced monsoon rains from mid-July through
August supplemented water requirements. The widespread monsoonal rains
across the cotton growing areas reduced whitefly populations, and farmers also
successfully used specific pesticides to help control whiteflies and
bollworms. The recent heavy rains and floods have generated stories of
extensive damage; however, recent assessments indicate only limited damage.
Despite some losses, crop conditions are significantly better than last year.
Turkey: Cotton production in for 1997/98 is forecast at 3.3 million bales,
down 0.3 million or 8 percent from 1996/97. The crop was planted about three
weeks late due to cool spring weather. The late sown crop increased the
possibility of another rain-hampered harvest similar to last season. During
1996/97, cotton output declined from a record 3.9 million bales produced in
1995/96, to 3.6 million, due primarily to rainy weather during the harvest
resulting in a yield loss of approximately 7 percent and a reduction in fiber
quality. The early seasonal rains, which arrived in September, were heaviest
in Southeast and Aegean Regions, Turkey's largest producing areas. The rains
continued into October, and with only an estimated 60 percent of the crop
harvested in these regions, significant yield loss and quality damage
occurred. The unfavorable harvest weather was compounded by a growing
shortage of farm labor, resulting in a prolonged harvest period. This season,
heavy rains have again occurred over the cotton area; however, harvest is
further along than last year. Picking is nearly complete in Cukurova and
around 30 percent remains in the field in both the Aegean and the Southeast
Regions.
Australia: Production for 1997/98 is estimated at a record 2.9 million bales,
up 0.1 million or 4 percent from last year. High reservoir levels of at least
75 percent of capacity and heavy rains in the September/October period have
boosted Australia's cotton production prospects in 1997/98. As a result, both
irrigated and dryland cotton areas are projected to increase. The area
planted is estimated at a record 430,000 hectares, up 35,000 or 9 percent from
last year. Without the shortages of irrigation water and soil moisture that
hindered the Australian cotton industry in the recent past, a record 345,000
hectares of irrigated cotton is forecast to be planted in 1997/98, up 20,000
from 1996/97 irrigated area. After recent rains across New South Wales,
dryland planting progress is estimated between 10,000 and 48,000 hectares.
The dryland areas in cental Queensland have yet to be sown because of
insufficient soil moisture levels. On a national basis, this is not a problem
since the planting window is large and the area is relatively small.
Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0879
E-mail: roberson@fas.usda.gov
WEST AFRICAN GRAIN PRODUCTION
Total grain production in West Africa for 1997/98 is forecast at 32.66 million
tons, virtually unchanged from 1996/97. Area harvested is forecast in at
37.53 million hectares, nearly unchanged from last year. For the purposes of
this article West Africa includes the following countries: Benin, Burkina-
Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
Rain came to the Sahelian zone earlier than usual this season, but it also
experienced dry periods. The dryness extended into late-July and early-
August, followed by a return to near normal rainfall except in northern
Senegal, Gambia, and Mauritania. In the western part of the Sahel, harvest
prospects improved following abundant and widespread rains in September.
Meteorologist have identified a tropical weather front that passes across West
Africa as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, also called the Intertropical
Front or the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD). The ITD can be characterized
by two main air streams in the lower atmosphere. Simply stated, moist, warm
air with south to southwesterly winds forms a wedge under dry and relatively
hot air with north to northeasterly winds.
The ITD provides a means for following the south-north motions of the rain-
producing southerly air whose depth and motion influence rainfall rate and
duration. Rainfall is minimal near the ITD, where the moist air is too
shallow to support thunderstorms. Rainfall increases south from the ITD,
reaching a maximum some 500 to 600 miles to the south. The ITD tracks
northward during the spring and early-summer, reaching its northernmost
position near the 19th parallel around mid-August, when rainfall in the Sahel
peaks. After August, it typically retreats rapidly southward. The ITD
location during the West African growing season (June-September) is closely
related to both cumulative rainfall and crop production.
For the 1997/98 season, the ITD progressed northward at a near-normal pace,
peaking during mid-August and retreating thereafter. However, in July the ITD
was slightly south of its normal position which caused dryness in parts of
West Africa, such as in Senegal and Mauritana. From August to October, the
ITD was slightly north of normal. The deviation resulted in unusually dry
weather in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana during September.
Benin: Total grain production in Benin for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.65
million tons, down marginally from 1996/97. The area harvested increased
slightly from last season to an estimated 0.68 million hectares. Corn and
sorghum are the main crops grown, with output forecast at 0.50 million and
0.11 million tons, respectively for 1997/98. A decline in rice output is due
to dry weather.
Burkina Faso: In Burkina Faso, total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast
at 2.47 million tons, up from 2.43 million in 1996/97. Area harvested is also
projected to increase in 1997/98 and is forecast at 2.98 million hectares, up
from 2.89 million in 1996/97. Sorghum and millet are the main crops grown,
with production forecast at 1.30 million and 0.80 million tons, respectively.
A slight increase in output is due to favorable rainfall in July despite an
earlier 4-week dry spell. Minor grasshopper and caterpillar infestations were
reported, but were treated.
Chad: Total grain output in Chad for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.80 million
tons, up marginally from 0.79 million in 1996/97. Area harvested in 1997/98
is forecast at 1.27 million hectares, down marginally from 1996/97. Millet is
the main crop produced with output forecast at 0.65 million tons for 1997/98.
Early-season dryness caused planting delays, but above-normal rainfall in mid
August stabilized crop prospects. Harvesting activity has begun, and some
insect damage was reported along with damage by birds in the central Sahelian
zone. Also, African locusts in Chari-Baguirmi, south N'Djamena caused minor
damage to millet and sorghum.
Cote d'Ivoire: Total grain output in the Cote d'Ivoire for 1997/98 is
forecast at 1.14 million tons, down slightly from 1.16 million in 1996/97.
Area harvested in 1997/98 is forecast at 1.51 million hectares, virtually
unchanged from the previous year. The main crops produced, corn and rice, are
forecast at 0.64 million and 0.40 million tons, respectively. Weather has
been generally satisfactory except for below normal rainfall in late-June.
The corn crop is estimated higher than last season due to expansion of area
and favorable rains. Production potential is being stifled by a lack of
efficient storage facilities, caused by relatively large stocks and low market
prices. Rice production is down from the previous year as lower producer
prices caused a reduction in planted area.
Gambia: In Gambia, total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.83
million tons, down 0.20 million from last season. Millet is the principal
crop grown with output forecast at 0.05 million tons. A long dry spell
negatively affected crops and delayed rice transplanting. The Government
declared a partial crop failure, but near-normal rainfall in late-August and
early-September stabilized yield prospects. However, corn production is
forecast much lower as a result of the dryness. Pest damage also has been
reported in some regions.
Ghana: In Ghana, total grain output is forecast at 1.36 million tons in
1997/98, down from 1.67 million in 1996/97. Area harvested is forecast at
1.25 million hectares, down from 1.33 million last season. Corn and sorghum
are the main crops with output forecast at 0.70 million and 0.35 million tons,
respectively. Rainfall began early in March and remained favorable until
June, when it decreased significantly. However, in early-July rainfall was
again above-average allowing the corn crop to recover.
Guinea: Total grain output in Guinea for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.64 million
tons, the same as in 1996/97. Area harvested in 1997/98 is forecast at 0.70
million, up marginally from last year. Rice and millet are the primary crops
grown, producing 0.45 million and 0.10 million tons, respectively. Rains
began in late-March in the extreme southeast, increased throughout the South
in April, became abundant in May, and continued throughout the growing season.
Crop prospects are generally favorable.
Guinea-Bissau: In Guinea-Bissau for 1997/98, total grain output is forecast
at 0.15 million tons, down slightly from the previous year. Area harvested in
1997/98 is forecast at 0.14 million hectares, up slightly from 1996/97. Rice
is the principal grain crop, with output forecast at 0.08 million tons.
Favorable rainfall in June allowed the planting of coarse grains in the East
and North as well as allowing an early start to land preparation in swamp
areas. Due to dry conditions in July, transplanting of rice from seedbeds to
swamp areas was delayed, but rainfall increased in August allowing
transplanting to continue. Abundant rainfall in late-August and early-
September benefited rice and coarse grain development.
Liberia: Liberian total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.60
million tons, unchanged from 1996/97. Rice is the main crop grown in Liberia
with output forecast at 0.06 million tons. Rainfall started late this season,
beginning in the later part of February, becoming widespread over the entire
country in late-March, and remaining plentiful from April through June. The
rains decreased in July and August, but resumed normally in early September.
No climatic constraints or pests have been reported, and relative political
stability has encouraged farming once again in the country.
Mali: In Mali, total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 2.25 million
tons, up from 1.88 million in 1996/97 due to generally favorable rainfall.
Area harvested in 1997/98 is forecast at 2.97 million hectares, up almost 0.20
million from last season. The main grain crop produced is millet with
production for 1997/98 forecast at 1.50 million tons. In the rain-fed
agricultural zone of the Mopti Region and the northern parts of Kayes,
Koulikoro, and Segou Regions, sowing started early in response to rains in
June. In July, dry weather caused farmers to replant; however, planted area
in Kayes and Mopti regions is higher than last year. There were reports of
pest infestations in different areas, but control operation teams have
reportedly dealt with the problem.
Mauritania: In Mauritania, total grain output for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.15
million tons, down from 0.20 million in 1996/97. Area harvested in 1997/98
is forecast at 0.22 million hectares, down slightly from the previous year.
Sorghum, the principal grain crop, is forecast lower this season at 0.10
million tons due to dryness that extended to July. Adequate rains in late-
August and early-September stabilized prospects for production below
reservoirs and in low lying areas. Replanting was limited due to seed
availability. Abundant rains in late-August early-September replenished
reservoirs, improving prospects for irrigated rice.
Niger: In Niger, total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 2.32
million tons, up slightly from 2.30 million in 1996/97. Area harvested is
forecast at 6.23 million hectares in 1997/98 compared to 6.33 million in
1996/97. Millet is the major grain crop in Niger with production for 1997/98
estimated at 1.85 million tons. A late start of rain in agricultural areas of
Niger and dryness in July led to significant crop development variations.
Rains from August through October were well distributed. Millet has been
harvested and has appeared in the markets in some areas.
Nigeria: Nigerian total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 18.89
million tons, virtually unchanged from 1996/97. Area harvested in 1997/98 is
forecast at 17.14 million hectares, down slightly from last year. Sorghum,
corn, millet, and rice are the main crops produced with output forecast at
7.00 million, 5.00 million, 5.00 million, and 1.85 million tons, respectively.
Abundant, widespread rains began in southern Nigeria in mid March and
continued throughout the growing season. Corn production, forecast at 5.0
million tons, is unchanged from last season's reduced level as producers
switched from corn to sorghum due to continued fertilizer availability
shortages.
Senegal: Total grain production in Senegal for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.83
million tons, down from 0.92 million produced in 1996/97. Area harvested in
1997/98 is forecast at 1.23 million hectares, down slightly from last season.
Millet and sorghum are the principal grain crops with production forecast at 0.55 million and 0.11 million tons, respectively.
Crops were negatively affected by dry weather in mid-July, and prospects are
unfavorable, although Senegal had near-normal rainfall in late-August through
early-September. In the North and Central North, crops that had not failed
benefitted from these rains. Rice production, estimated at 0.9 million tons
for 1997/98, has steadily declined over the years and this trend is forecast
to continue this season due to scarcity of high quality seeds, inadequate
input usage, increasing production costs, reduced availability of credit, and
lower producer prices.
Sierra Leone: Total grain production in Sierra Leone for 1997/98 is forecast
at 0.23 million tons, down slightly from 1996/97. Rice is the main crop grown
with production for 1997/98 forecast at 0.20 million tons. Agricultural
activities have been severely hampered due to political unrest in the country.
Rainfall was sparse in March and April, but near-normal rainfall followed.
Planted area, yield, and production are reduced as some farmers abandoned
their farms, while others are reluctant to cultivate large areas due to the
political instability.
Togo: In Togo, total grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 0.66 million
tons, compared to 0.60 million in 1996/97. Area harvested in 1997/98 is
forecast at 0.73 million hectares, down from 0.76 million hectares in 1996/97.
Corn and millet, the main crops grown, are forecast at 0.45 million and 0.18
million tons, respectively. Grain output is projected to be above
average due to generally favorable rainfall throughout the growing season.
Theresa Wright, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 720-8887
E-mail: wrightt@fas.usda.gov
MEXICO GRAIN TRIP REPORT AND CROP ASSESSMENT
A Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) regional analyst traveled to Mexico in
early October to meet with Government of Mexico officials and to assess crop
conditions and production outlook for corn and sorghum. Meetings took place
with officials from the Livestock and Rural Development Office (SAGAR),
Secretariat of Agriculture, in Mexico City prior to traveling into the central
plains region of Mexico known as the "Bajio" (meaning lowlands). The Bajio,
also referred to as the Mexican Cornbelt, is an area west of Mexico City
situated between the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Sierra Madre Occidental
mountain ranges. This area includes western Guanajuato, northern Michoacan,
and eastern Jalisco. The FAS analyst traveled as a member of a crop team that
visited with farmers, cooperatives, millers, trade representatives, and
regional SAGAR officials during 4 days of field travel.
Bajio: Mexico is able to grow grain and oilseed crops year-round, the bulk
being spring and summer production. The common mode of farming in the Bajio
is the "ejido" system, where government-owned land is inhabited and worked by
peasant families in a communal arrangement. There are also larger,
independently owed farms which sometimes operate in a manner similar to the
ejido system as well as corporate-owned farms. The Bajio contributes nearly 70
percent of Mexico's spring/summer sorghum crop (planted in late April/May and
harvested in October/November), over 25 percent of the spring/summer corn
production (planted in May and harvested in November/December), and therefore
is an economically and politically important region. Historically, market
price has determined how much sorghum was planted vrsus corn. Corn has
usually been the grain of choice because of programs put in place by the
Government of Mexico to assure that corn was plentiful and inexpensive. White
corn is the mainstay of the Mexican population's diet, with corn tortillas
and/or beans served at every meal. Sorghum is the feedgrain of choice in
Mexico with most of it consumed by the swine and poultry industries. One-half
of the country's sorghum production is consumed in the Bajio.
Opinions varied greatly among the Bajio respondents as to what harvest totals
will ultimately be received from the summer portion of 1997/98 crop, however
everyone foresaw below-normal output due to drought, and lower production than
the official SAGAR forecast.
Nearly two-thirds of the corn and sorghum fields in Bajio are rain-fed. Crops
suffered from moisture deficiency this summer, resulting from a year-long
trend of below-normal precipitation and occasional high temperatures. Late-
season tropical storms eased the moisture stress; however, precipitation
arrived too late for most Bajio corn yields to recover. Sorghum benefitted
from these late rains since it is a more drought-resistant crop whose main-
harvest period begins in November, about a month after corn. Areas of the
States of Jalisco and Michoacan that are closest to the Pacific coast received
higher rainfall totals this summer than other areas of those states, and their
yields subsequently should be higher than the interior areas.
Reservoirs in the region entered the season at less than half their normal
levels and continued to fall reflecting the absence of precipitation. Farmers
reported receiving about two allocations of water at planting and germination
time from the local agencies under the authority of the National Water
Commission, but no water since then. In Mexico, all water is owned by the
Federal Government, and the delivery of scheduled allocations will vary with
weather and agricultural policy.
The dominant point of discussion in the Bajio, beyond the drought, was the
announcement of a new sorghum price support program for the State of
Guanajuato. This announcement occurred at the time of the team's crop travel.
The Guanajuato plan, effective October 1, 1997, covering a 5-month period, is
an attempt to control price volatility by establishing a range within which
all parties would agree to do business. The farmers and traders felt the plan
would have limited success, questioning why anyone would agree to cap their
potential profit. Furthermore, Guanajuato has no real mechanism to ensure
compliance among the participants. None of the farmers and few of the storage
site operators acknowledged signing on to the Guanajuato plan. Mexico has
been moving in the direction of an open marketplace since signing the North
American Free Trade Agreement, and the Federal Government has become
increasingly selective about instituting price-support programs that
previously were the norm.
Queretaro: The State of Queretaro normally accounts for a tiny portion of
Mexico's annual corn and sorghum output. This summer's contribution (normally
less than 1 percent of national corn output and all of Queretaro's sorghum
output) will be less than normal, based on field observations. The fields
between San Juan del Rio and the capital city of Queretaro were the most
stressed fields encountered during the trip. Plants were stunted, leaves were
withered, and the soil was sometimes powdery dry. During the summer months
of the 1990's, more than 70 percent of Queretaro's summer-crop corn and 90
percent of it's sorghum was grown under irrigation. The largest reservoir in
the area, Constitucion de 1917, was at 53 percent of capacity in 1995 and 36
percent in early October of 1996. Volume did not climb above 5 percent of
capacity between May and September 1997. By the end of September 1997,
SAGAR's corn production estimate for Queretaro had already fallen to 77,500
tons and sorghum output to 41,400 tons. Other sources within the state felt
those figures were optimistic.
Guanajuato: Plant vigor in southern Guanajuato was observed to be better than
in Queretaro, but dryness had cut anticipated yields. The summer-corn and
sorghum crops normally represent 6 percent and 43 percent, respectively, of
Mexico's annual output. More than 60 percent of Guanajuato's summer-corn and
80 percent of it's sorghum crops are grown under irrigation. The Solis
Reservoir usually provides sufficient water to farmers around Celaya
(southeast Guanajuato) to plant in the spring, but normal crop development was
hampered by the absence of precipitation. A Celaya grain storage operator
reported that the soil moisture was even lower in northern Quanajuato. Forty
miles west of Celaya the team observed late-planted sorghum fields that were
in relatively good condition. The trend toward better plant development
continued as the team drove west to Irapuato, then southwest toward La Piedad
De Cabadas, although corn fields continued to exhibit stress.
Jalisco: Corn and sorghum fields near Jetraham de Jamay in northeast Jalisco
looked very healthy, but farmers insisted that yields across the state were
reduced by drought. The summer-corn and sorghum crops normally account for 17
and 11 percent of Mexico's annual output, respectively. A farmers'
association estimated Jalisco's 1996/97 corn production at 2.4 million tons,
and projected the 1997/98 output at less than 1.5 million tons. Less than 8
percent of Jalisco's summer-corn and less than 16 percent of it's sorghum is
grown on irrigated fields. The farmers association reported that 20 percent
of dryland corn would have normal yields, 50 percent would have drought
damage, and 30 percent would be lost. The association was concerned about
sorghum ergot as recently as two months ago, but had found the impact of ergot
to be minimal. Some farmers were already harvesting immature sorghum to
prevent lodging caused by excessive winds caused by Hurricane Pauline, but
some fields appeared as though they would not be ready for harvesting until
late November.
Michoacan: In Michoacan, crops conditions were similar to those of Jalisco
State. However, government officials indicated as much as 150,000 hectares of
the state's planted area was affected by drought. The Michoacan summer-corn
and sorghum crops normally account for 7 and 15 percent of Mexico"s annual
output, respectively. Irrigated area accounts for about 25 percent of the
Michoacan's corn production, while 50 percent or more of the state's sorghum
is irrigated. Government officials indicated sorghum output may reach 700,000
tons from 150,000 hectares, which reportedly would be an improvement
of 275,000 tons over the 1996 season.
TABLE 22
MEXICO CORN PRODUCTION
Area Yield Production
(000 hectares) (tons/hectare) (000 tons)
1990/91 6,600 2.14 14,100
1991/92 6,995 2.10 14,689
1992/93 7,536 2.47 18,631
1993/94 8,557 2.24 19,141
1994/95 8,022 2.12 17,005
1995/96 7,800 2.28 17,780
1996/97 8,200 2.38 19,500
1997/98 8,500 2.24 19,000
TABLE 23
MEXICO SORGHUM PRODUCTION
Area Yield Production
(000 hectares) (tons/hectare) (000 tons)
1990/91 1,300 2.85 3,700
1991/92 1,459 3.02 4,403
1992/93 1,030 3.00 3,088
1993/94 1,032 2.92 3,018
1994/95 1,000 3.00 3,000
1995/96 1,733 3.21 5,568
1996/97 1,800 3.44 6,200
1997/98 1,800 3.33 6,000
Ron White, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0137
E-mail: whiter@fas.usda.gov
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