WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PART 1:
May 1997
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural
attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other
foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S.
acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board,
except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not
add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-326) May
12, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave.,
Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing
to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available
electronically after 3:30 pm local time on June 13, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
May 12, 1997
UNITED STATES: Favorably drier weather in the upper Midwest aided the slow
recession of floodwaters throughout the drainage basins. Spring wheat
planting is lagging well behind average due to the excessive wetness and cool
weather. Corn planting advanced rapidly in the Midwest, with favorable
weather conditions in late April and early May. Winter wheat development
resumed after the damaging freeze in mid-April from western Kansas to central
Texas. Recent drier weather in eastern Texas improved rice planting
conditions following earlier delays. Cool, wet weather in the Northwest
slowed early spring growth.
CANADA: Persistent cold in the Prairies precludes significant early spring
grain and oilseed planting. Flooding continues in the Red River Valley, with
some level of planting delays imminent.
SOUTH AMERICA: Near to above normal April rainfall eased dryness in central
Argenina, stablizing soybean yields and increasing topsoil moisture for
upcoming winter wheat planting. In southern Brazil, below normal April
rainfall promoted rapid soybean harvesting. However, in portions of Argentina
and southern Brazil, more rain is needed for winter wheat planting.
EUROPE: Persistent dryness hurt non-irrigated winter grains in Portugal and
southern Spain and limited moisture for winter grain development and newly
emerging spring-sown crops in England, France, the Benelux countries, and
northern Italy. Cool, wet weather in southeastern Europe in April slowed
winter grain development and spring grain planting. Sub-freezing temperatures
on April 18 may have damaged flowering orchards, vines, and vegetable crops in
southern France and Italy. Increasing precipitation since April 20 in western
Europe and northern Italy eased prolonged dryness, improving growing
conditions for crops.
FSU-WESTERN: Near- to above-normal precipitation in April over Russia,
Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics benefited winter grains and increased
topsoil moisture for spring grain planting. In Russia and Ukraine, spring
grain planting is progressing ahead of last year's pace, but corn and
sunflower planting lags last year.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: Widespread rain from April 18-22, 1997 in Morocco, Algeria,
and Tunisia arrived too late to signifcantly improve yield propsects for
drought-stricken winter grain crops. Periodic hot weather since April 28
hastened maturity in winter grains in Morocco, parts of Algeria, and Tunisia.
MIDDLE EAST: Warmer, somewhat drier weather since mid-April enhances crop
growth in Iran. The dryness extends into eastern Syria, although temperatures
generally remain below normal. Cool, showery weather over Turkey maintains
unfavorable conditions for winter wheat development and cotton emrgence.
SOUTH AFRICA: April showers were unfavorable for maturing corn but increased
moisture for winter wheat establishment. Cool, dry weather over the past few
weeks has aided corn drydown. Moisture reserves are generally favorable for
winter wheat planting, except for a few dry locations in Western Cape.
EASTERN ASIA: Adequate moisture exists for vegetative to reproductive winter
wheat across the North China Plains. Persistent April showers slowed early
rice development across southern China, but sunnier weather in early May,
favored growth. Topsoil are somehwat dry for spring wheat planting in
Manchuria.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Below normal rainfall continued in April across the
Philippines, reducing moisture supplies for main-season crops. Showers slowed
main-season rice harvesting across Java. In Thailand, near to above normal
April rainfall slowed second-crop rice harvesting but increased moisture
supplies for the upcoming main-season rice crop.
AUSTRALIA: Recent showers in the southeastern winter grain belt have increased
topsoil moisture for germination. However, soaking rain are required to
adequately recharge subsoil moisture reserves following a protracted dry
spell. Farther north, sorghum and cotton harvesting progressed, as did early
barley and wheat planting. Topsoils have dried out in winter grain areas of
east-central Australia but subsoil moisture reserves are generally favorable
from the wet summer. In the west, scattered, light rain maintains generally
favorable winter planting conditions, but more rain would be welcomed for
proper establishment.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
UNITED STATES: Paralyzing spring storms produced heavy snow and blizzard
conditions across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, already inundated by
significant snowmelt runoff into the river drainage basins. Beneficial rain
fell over most hard red winter wheat areas in early April, but bitter cold air
poured into the Great Plains breaking low temperature records and threatening
jointing wheat in southern crop areas. Wet weather slowed fieldwork progress
in eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, while dry weather favored
planting progress in the Southeast.
SOUTH AMERICA: Below-normal rainfall continued throughout most of March,
reducing soybean yields in Argentina. The dryness, however, favored corn and
sunflower harvesting. In southern Brazil, below-normal March rainfall favored
soybean maturation and harvesting. However, dryness late in the month
stressed late-filling soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul.
EUROPE: Persistent dryness in Spain and Portugal lowered crop prospects for
nonirrigated winter grains and limited topsoil moisture for spring-sown crops.
Well-below-normal precipitation in March in France and the United Kingdom
limited moisture for winter grain development but allowed rapid spring grain
planting. Mild weather and periodic showers in Germany favored winter grain
development and caused only minor planting delays. In eastern Europe,
although near- to above-normal precipitation in March provided adequate
moisture for winter grains which resumed spring tillering, it slowed spring
grain planting, especially in southern areas.
FSU-WESTERN: Cold, wet weather during the second half of March prevented
further greening of winter grains in Ukraine and kept winter grains dormant in
Russia. Furthermore, the cold wet conditions halted early season fieldwork.
In early April, a warming trend accomapnied several days of dryness, allowing
a resumption in early season fieldwork and prompting further greening of
winter grains.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: Drought continued to reduce yield prospects for winter
grains in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Recent showers helped stabilize
conditions for drought-stressed crops.
SOUTH AFRICA: Frequent, locally heavy showers, accompanied by below-normal
temperatures, kept filling to maturing corn unfavorably wet throughout March.
Patchy frost in early April likely causes no significant corn damage. Coastal
showers since late March preclude early sugarcane harvests. Winter wheat
planting (April to June) prospects are favorable in Orange Free State and
environs due to recent wetness. More rain is needed in western crop areas of
Western Cape for wheat germination.
EASTERN ASIA: Near- to above-normal March rainfall covered most of China,
aiding winter grains and boosting irrigation supplies. Only portions of
Manchuria and the Yangtze Valley received below normal rainfall.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Below normal March rainfall favored main-season rice
harvesting in Java. Rain during late-March and early-April favored rainfed
second-crop rice in northern and central Thailand, but slowed harvesting in
the east. Below normal March rainfall prevailed across peninsular Malaysia
and most of the Philippines, reducing moisture supplies.
AUSTRALIA: Heavy late-March showers along Queensland's coast increase
moisture for sugarcane but reportedly cause local flooding and damage. The
rain affects only fringe cotton and sorghum areas as dryness over the bulk of
interior summer cropland favors maturation. Beneficial rain improves
pre-planting moisture levels in winter grain areas of Western Australia but
the southeast was dry.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
May 1997
WHEAT
-----------1996/97------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96
MMT MMT (Percent) (Percent)
World 578.4 NA NA -0
Production is forecast lower due to reduced output in both the United States
and the total foreign category.
United States 61.6 NA NA -1
Production is forecast lower due to a decline in harvested area.
Total Foreign 516.9 NA NA -0
Production is forecast lower due mainly to reductions in Australia, Canada,
Argentina, and Northwest Africa.
Algeria 0.8 NA NA -64
Production is forecast lower due to drought which reduced area and yield
potential.
Morocco 2.5 NA NA -58
Production is forecast lower due to an excessively wet fall that reduced area
and an extended dry growing season that lowered yield prospects.
Tunisia 0.9 NA NA -55
Production is forecast lower due to unfavorably dry weather that reduced area
and yield prospects.
Brazil 2.5 NA NA -22
Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area based on weaker
domestic prices. Wheat planting has commenced under dry conditions.
Australia 18.5 NA NA -21
Production is forecast lower based on a return to average yield, a reduction
from last season's record. Area remains unchanged from 1996/97.
Canada 26.0 NA NA -15
Production is forecast lower due to a normal rotation into canola and
favorable canola prices. Yield is forecast to be near-average. Some planting
in Manitoba will be delayed due to recent flooding.
Argentina 14.0 NA NA -12
Production is forecast lower. Area is forecast down from last year's near-record level. Fertilizer use is expected to be high again this season.
Iran 10.5 NA NA -5
Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield caused by pockets
of dry weather and below-normal temperatures.
Pakistan 16.0 NA NA -5
Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield. Dry weather at
the initial stages of crop development, declining use of inputs, and excessive
rainfall near harvest reduced yield potential.
European Union 97.9 NA NA -1
Production is forecast lower as yield is expected to retract from its 1996/97
record level. Harvested area is forecast at a record, up 3 percent from
1996/97. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are forecast to have large
crops, while Spain's crop is suffering from drought.
Turkey 16.0 NA NA NC
Production is forecast unchanged from last season; however, harvested area is
slightly higher.
Ukraine 17.5 NA NA +30
Production is forecast higher as area and yield are estimated above last
season's level. Currently, winter wheat is in good condition.
Eastern Europe 33.2 NA NA +27
Production is forecast higher due to increased harvested area and yield.
Wheat output in Poland and Albania is forecast nearly unchanged from 1996/97,
while output in Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary is projected above last season.
Saudi Arabia 1.5 NA NA +25
Production is forecast up resulting from the Government's increase in the
production quota to rebuild stocks.
Kazakstan 8.5 NA NA +10
Production is forecast higher. Yields are projected to rebound from last
season's drought reduced level.
Mexico 3.4 NA NA +6
Production is forecast higher due to increased area in the irrigated
northwestern wheat-growing region.
China 114.0 NA NA +5
Production is forecast at a record due to increases in yield and area.
Weather has been ideal for the winter crop, and conditions are generally
favorable for spring wheat plantings.
Egypt 5.9 NA NA +3
Production is forecast above last year's crop as irrigation supplies were
adequate this season.
India 64.5 NA NA +3
Production is forecast at a bumper level due to increased area and yield.
Harvest activity has started.
Russia 35.0 NA NA +0
Production is forecast at virtually the same level as 1996/97 due to a
decrease in area, but increase in yield. Below-normal levels of winterkill
have been reported.
COARSE GRAINS
World 898.9 NA NA -0
Production is forecast down marginally as a decrease in the total foreign
category more than offset an increase in the United States.
United States 278.4 NA NA +4
Production is forecast higher as increases in corn, oats, and rye more than
offset decreases in barley and sorghum.
Total Foreign 620.5 NA NA -2
Production is lower due mainly to reductions in China, Argentina, and Canada.
Iran 2.8 NA NA -12
Production is forecast lower due to decline in barley area and yield.
Argentina 15.8 NA NA -11
Production is forecast lower as corn area and yield are projected to decline.
Input use is expected to be strong.
Australia 8.6 NA NA -6
Production is forecast lower as yields are forecast to return to average
levels. Barley output is projected lower, while sorghum is higher.
Canada 26.8 NA NA -5
Production is forecast down from 1996/97. According to a Statistics Canada
report, barley, rye, and oat areas are lower due to an increase in canola
area. Corn area is projected higher than last season.
China 135.2 NA NA -4
Production is forecast below the 1996/97 record level. Corn output is
forecast lower due to a reduction in area.
Kazakstan 3.1 NA NA -3
Production is forecast below last season's level as barley area continues to
decline.
Russia 30.9 NA NA -3
Production is forecast lower as oat and rye area continue to decrease. Corn
and barley output are forecast higher.
European Union 102.0 NA NA -2
Production is forecast down from 1996/97. Harvested area is forecast up 2
percent from 1996/97; however, yield is projected below last season's record
level. Corn output is forecast at a record level due primarily to continued
bumper crops in Italy and France. Barley production is forecast lower mainly
due to drought in Spain.
Thailand 4.2 NA NA NC
Production is forecast unchanged from 1996/97.
Ukraine 13.3 NA NA +40
Production is forecast sharply higher than last year's drought-reduced season.
Harvested area for barley is lower, but higher for corn.
Turkey 10.3 NA NA +4
Production is forecast up from 1996/97 due to an increase in corn area.
Barley production prospects are unchanged from last season.
South Africa 9.2 NA NA +4
Production is forecast higher. Corn output is raised slightly due to
increased yield, while area is projected to decline.
Eastern Europe 50.8 NA NA +2
Production is forecast to be larger than last season. Barley production is
forecast up from 1996/97 in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Corn
production is forecast to decline in Hungary and Romania.
Mexico 26.0 NA NA +2
Production is forecast up from 1996/97. Average yield is forecast for corn,
while area is forecast to increase slightly.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
RICE (MILLED BASIS) FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World production is forecast at 377.3
million tons, virtually unchanged from 1996/97. Foreign production for 1997/98
is forecast at 372.0 million tons, up 0.2 million or less than 1 percent from
1996/97. Rice production in the United States is forecast at 5.3 million tons,
down 0.3 million or 5 percent from 1996/97.
OILSEEDS
OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World oilseed production is forecast at 273.0
million tons, up 15.2 million or 6 percent from 1996/97. Foreign production
for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 192.2 million tons, up 9.2 million or 5
percent from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is
forecast at 80.8 million tons, up 5.9 million or 8 percent from last year.
COTTON
COTTON FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World cotton production is forecast at 87.5
million bales, down 0.4 million or less than 1 percent from 1996/97. Total
foreign production is forecast at 69.0 million bales, nearly the same as
1996/97. U.S. production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, down 0.4 million
or 2 percent from 1996/97.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97
WHEAT
-----------1996/97------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96
MMT MMT (Percent) (Percent)
World 581.2 -0.3 -0 +8
Production for 1996/97 is estimated lower due to a decline in total foreign
output.
United States 62.1 NC NC +5
No change this month.
Total Foreign 519.1 -0.3 -0 +8
Production is estimated lower as declines in the EU-15 and Iran more than offset
an increase in Argentina.
COARSE GRAINS
World 899.9 +3.7 +0 +13
Production for the 1996/97 crop is estimated higher this month due to an
increase in the total foreign category.
United States 267.6 NC NC +28
No change this month.
Total Foreign 632.4 +3.7 +1 +7
Production is estimated higher for China and India which more than offset
declines for the EU-15, South Africa, and Chile.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 377.4 +0.5 +0 +2
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign
category.
United States 5.6 NC NC -1
No change this month.
Total Foreign 371.8 +0.5 +0 +2
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in India.
India 80.5 +0.5 +1 +1
Production is estimated at higher based on preliminary estimates from the
major producing states.
OILSEEDS
World 257.8 -1.7 -0 +0
Production is estimated lower due to reductions in both the United States and
the total foreign category.
United States 74.8 -0.1 -0 +8
Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in cottonseed yield.
Total Foreign 183.0 -1.5 -1 -2
Production is forecast lower mainly due to downward revisions for soybean and
sunflowerseed estimates in South America.
Argentina 18.6 -1.2 -6 -4
Production is estimated lower based on reduced soybean, sunflowerseed, and
peanut yields. Extended dryness in southern Santa Fe and Cordoba lowered
yield prospects.
Brazil 27.2 -0.5 -2 +11
Production is estimated lower due to dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul which
reduced soybean yields. Near- average yields are projected for the other
soybean growing regions.
Bolivia 1.0 -0.2 -0 +1
Production is estimated lower resulting from dry conditions which reduced
yield expectations to slightly below average. Production is still projected
to be a record.
Paraguay 2.8 -0.1 -4 +4
Production is estimated lower due to dry conditions which reduced soybean
yield.
China 40.9 +0.5 +1 -5
Production is estimated higher based on an increase in soybean area.
Government sources indicate that harvested soybean area is above earlier
expectations.
PALM OIL
World 16.7 NC NC +6
No change this month. Production is forecast at a record.
COTTON
-----------1996/97------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96
MBALES MBALES (Percent) (Percent)
World 88.0 -0.2 -0 -5
Production is forecast lower due to declines in the United States and the total
foreign category.
United States 19.9 -0 -0 +6
Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in yield.
Total Foreign 69.0 -0.2 -0 -7
Production is forecast lower due to reductions in Argentina and Paraguay which
more than offset an increase in Australia.
Argentina 1.7 -0.2 -11 -12
Production is forecast lower due to dry spells in January and March which reduced
yield potential.
Australia 2.6 +0.1 +4 +35
Production is forecast higher resulting from improved yield prospects as pre-harvest and harvest weather has been excellent.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 538.392 581.242 578.436
Area MIL. HA 219.631 230.816 227.973
Yield MT/HA 2.451 2.518 2.537
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 59.400 62.099 61.547
Area MIL. HA 24.664 25.435 24.685
Yield MT/HA 2.408 2.441 2.493
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 478.992 519.143 516.889
Area MIL. HA 194.967 205.381 203.288
Yield MT/HA 2.457 2.528 2.543
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 9.200 15.900 14.000
Area MIL. HA 4.781 6.900 6.300
Yield MT/HA 1.924 2.304 2.222
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 16.975 23.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.721 11.000 11.000
Yield MT/HA 1.746 2.136 1.682
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 25.037 30.500 26.000
Area MIL. HA 11.141 12.650 11.700
Yield MT/HA 2.247 2.411 2.222
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 86.161 99.003 97.850
Area MIL. HA 16.161 16.784 17.275
Yield MT/HA 5.331 5.899 5.664
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.320 62.970 68.170
Area MIL. HA 45.358 48.155 47.605
Yield MT/HA 1.308 1.308 1.432
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 34.970 26.219 33.200
Area MIL. HA 9.710 8.701 9.610
Yield MT/HA 3.601 3.013 3.455
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 102.215 109.000 114.000
Area MIL. HA 28.860 29.500 30.000
Yield MT/HA 3.542 3.695 3.800
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 65.470 62.620 64.500
Area MIL. HA 25.600 25.100 25.400
Yield MT/HA 2.557 2.495 2.539
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 17.002 16.907 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.170 8.376 8.100
Yield MT/HA 2.081 2.019 1.975
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 15.500 16.000 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.550 8.450 8.500
Yield MT/HA 1.813 1.893 1.882
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 3.460 3.200 3.400
Area MIL. HA 0.870 0.800 0.850
Yield MT/HA 3.977 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.946 0.921 0.925
Area MIL. HA 0.166 0.163 0.160
Yield MT/HA 5.699 5.650 5.781
==================================================================
May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 515.833 588.794 598.495
Area MIL. HA 134.369 140.971 141.701
Yield MT/HA 3.839 4.177 4.224
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 187.305 236.064 249.948
Area MIL. HA 26.303 29.602 30.401
Yield MT/HA 7.121 7.975 8.222
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 328.528 352.730 348.547
Area MIL. HA 108.066 111.369 111.300
Yield MT/HA 3.040 3.167 3.132
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.100 14.500 13.000
Area MIL. HA 2.700 3.300 3.000
Yield MT/HA 4.111 4.394 4.333
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 10.200 8.300 8.500
Area MIL. HA 3.300 3.360 3.200
Yield MT/HA 3.091 2.470 2.656
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.700 4.000 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.140 1.200 1.150
Yield MT/HA 3.246 3.333 3.478
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 25.371 25.705 24.800
Area MIL. HA 6.949 7.033 6.825
Yield MT/HA 3.651 3.655 3.634
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 29.113 34.586 34.725
Area MIL. HA 3.730 4.080 4.160
Yield MT/HA 7.805 8.477 8.347
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 7.010 4.535 7.335
Area MIL. HA 2.465 2.097 2.753
Yield MT/HA 2.844 2.163 2.664
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.780 19.000 19.500
Area MIL. HA 7.800 8.200 8.500
Yield MT/HA 2.279 2.317 2.294
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 112.000 127.000 122.000
Area MIL. HA 22.767 24.300 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.919 5.226 5.191
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 32.480 37.000 35.000
Area MIL. HA 13.767 14.200 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.359 2.606 2.500
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.324 4.250 4.200
Area MIL. HA 2.760 2.730 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.567 1.557 1.556
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 6.000 6.600 6.800
Area MIL. HA 3.531 3.550 3.580
Yield MT/HA 1.699 1.859 1.899
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.271 7.200 8.000
Area MIL. HA 1.003 1.040 1.125
Yield MT/HA 7.249 6.923 7.111
==================================================================
May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.630 124.548 133.690 132.520
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.294 63.000 63.200
Yield MT/HA 2.212 2.032 2.122 2.097
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 64.837 64.837
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.661 25.661
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.527 2.527
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.137 65.305 68.853 67.683
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.356 37.339 37.539
Yield MT/HA 1.840 1.796 1.844 1.803
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.500 12.430 13.250 12.400
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.200 6.200
Yield MT/HA 2.193 2.079 2.137 2.000
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.700 27.000 26.500
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 11.800 11.800
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.164 2.288 2.246
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.400 2.700 2.600
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.182 2.250 2.167
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.000 13.500
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.500 7.800
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.733 1.731
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.550 1.500
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.346 1.400 1.300
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.159 1.107 1.154
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.304 0.358 0.363
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.179 0.216 0.216
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.698 1.657 1.681
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.029 0.939 1.075 1.075
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.317 0.317
Yield MT/HA 2.923 3.227 3.391 3.391
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523
==================================================================
May 12, 1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.520 92.174 88.122 87.945
Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.878 33.775 33.694
Yield KG/HA 579 559 568 568
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.951 18.942
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.193 5.208
Yield KG/HA 794 602 795 792
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 65.858 74.274 69.171 69.003
Area MIL. HA 26.758 29.400 28.582 28.486
Yield KG/HA 536 550 527 527
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.500 2.600
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.390
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,396 1,452
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.029
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.011
Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 574
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 900
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.150 1.150
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 835 835
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.100 7.100
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 483 483
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.450 0.450
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.230 0.230
Yield KG/HA 501 485 426 426
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.911 3.650 3.650
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.757 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,125 1,060 1,060
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.500 6.500
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 556 556
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.930 1.900 1.700
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.960 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 500 438 460 411
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 19.300 19.300
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.800
Yield KG/HA 784 879 875 875
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.649 12.500 12.500
Area MIL. HA 7.861 9.063 8.865 8.865
Yield KG/HA 300 304 307 307
==================================================================
May 12, 1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 364.897 371.450 376.913 377.378
Area MIL. HA 147.996 148.464 148.789 148.647
Yield MT/HA 2.466 2.502 2.533 2.539
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.595 5.595
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.133 1.133
Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.938 4.938
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.249 365.819 371.318 371.783
Area MIL. HA 146.654 147.212 147.656 147.514
Yield MT/HA 2.443 2.485 2.515 2.520
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 4.260 4.260
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.230 2.230
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.910 1.910
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 9.860 9.300 9.300
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.666 5.700 5.600
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.740 1.632 1.661
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.388 13.900 13.900
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.032 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.593 1.511 1.511
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 133.700 133.700
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.745 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.217 4.355 4.355
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.800 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.390 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.880 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.413 9.413
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.977 1.977
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.761 4.761
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.200
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.700
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.676
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.050 1.050
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.165
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.364 6.364
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.500 7.500
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 4.000 4.000
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.875 1.875
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 80.000 80.500
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.700 42.700
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.874 1.885
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.941 10.000 10.000
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.779 1.850 1.850
==================================================================
May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION
The preliminary 1997/98 forecast for world centrifugal sugar production is a
record 122.4 million tons (raw value), virtually unchanged from the revised
1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast
at 86.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last year. Sugar processed from
sugarbeets is forecast at 36.4 million tons, down 3 percent from last season
and 11 percent less than the record 41.1 million produced in 1990/91.
European Union (EU-15): The European Union's 1997/98 sugar production
forecast of 17.4 million tons is down 4 percent from last season. All major
sugar-producing member states are projecting lower sugar output in 1997/98
except Italy, where production is forecast to remain stable at 1.6 million
tons. The European Union accounts for 48 percent of the world's production of
beet sugar.
Brazil: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 14.8
million tons, up marginally from last season because of record cane production
and favorable weather. Brazil remains the world's single largest producer of
centrifugal sugar.
India: Sugar production for 1997/98 is projected at 13.6 million tons, down 7
percent from last season due to a 6-percent reduction in the volume of cane
cut specifically for centrifugal sugar and slightly lower yields. Sugarcane
and sugar production are projected to continue trending downward as ongoing
delays in producer payments causes growers to increasingly shift away from
cane production and use fewer inputs. These developments, coupled with
expanding production of alternative sweeteners, has resulted in a 25-percent
reduction in centrifugal sugar production since the record outturn of 18.2
million tons in 1995/96.
China: Sugar production in China for 1997/98 is forecast at 7.2 million tons,
up 1 percent from last season based on projections of increased production of
both beet and cane sugar. Approximately 80 percent of China's sugar
production comes from sugarcane. Sugarcane area is forecast to increase
slightly in 1997/98 due to continued expansion in Guangxi and Yunnan
Provinces.
Thailand: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 6.4 million
tons, up 2 percent from 1996/97. The increase reflects continuing expansion
of the area planted to cane in the northeast part of the country where farmers
are increasingly switching from cassava to sugarcane.
Australia: The sugar production forecast for 1997/98 indicates a record
outturn of 5.6 million tons, up 3 percent from last season due to an increase
in land assignments. Harvested area in 1997/98 is expected to exceed the
1996/97 area by 10,000 hectares for a total of 412,000.
Mexico: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 4.8
million tons, 2 percent greater than the previous record of 4.7 million set in
1996/97. Although cane area is essentially unchanged from last year, cane
yields are expected to be higher due to exceptionally favorable weather. The
current projection pegs the average yield at 73.7 tons per hectare for the
1997/98 crop, up from 69.9 tons per hectare in 1996/97.
The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to 122.3
million tons, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0 million.
The reduction is mainly due to decreases in the following countries: India,
down 914,000 tons to 14.7 million; Indonesia, down 355,000 tons to 2.1
million; Pakistan, down 230,000 tons, to 2.4 million; and Cuba, down 200,000
tons to 4.4 million.
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION
(1,000 Metric tons)
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Western Hemisphere
Argentina 1,180 1,590 1,380 1,640
Brazil 12,500 13,700 14,650 14,800
Colombia 2,071 2,002 2,044 2,045
Cuba 3,300 4,450 4,400 4,500
Guatemala 1,333 1,334 1,442 1,520
Mexico 4,556 4,660 4,670 4,770
United State 7,194 6,686 6,532 6,804
European Union 16,533 16,971 18,013 17,350
France 4,363 4,564 4,594 4,534
Germany 3,991 4,159 4,558 4,331
Italy 1,622 1,621 1,561 1,565
Netherlands 1,050 1,074 1,125 1,087
Spain 1,214 1,193 1,332 1,205
United Kingd 1,373 1,322 1,608 1,441
Eastern Europe
Poland 1,492 1,714 2,497 1,900
FSU
Russia 1,655 2,060 1,750 1,800
Ukraine 3,600 3,800 2,900 2,850
Africa
Egypt 1,088 1,092 1,184 1,225
South Africa 1,770 1,769 2,408 2,500
Middle East
Turkey 1,678 1,375 2,025 2,200
Asia
China 5,900 6,686 7,085 7,175
India 3/ 16,410 18,225 14,686 13,650
Indonesia 2,450 2,090 2,095 2,150
Pakistan 3,212 2,643 2,370 2,960
Philippines 1,647 1,787 1,800 1,800
Thailand 5,448 6,223 6,255 6,360
Oceania
Australia 5,196 5,049 5,491 5,650
Others 15,552 16,429 16,603 16,707
WORLD 115,765 122,335 122,280 122,356
1/ Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Total EU sugar production excludes French
overseas departments. 3/ Includes khandsari sugar in thousands of tons (raw
value equivalent) as follows: 1994/95 - 740; 1995/96 - 620; 1996/97 - 770;
1997/98 - 800.
May 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS,USDA
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Last modified: Thursday, December 11, 2003
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