(Feb 17, 2009)

Ukraine has become a major exporter of grains during the past ten years. Following a bumper harvest in 2008, wheat exports for 2008/09 are estimated at nearly 10 million tons. Wheat is Ukraine's major winter grain, and although final yields will depend largely on spring weather, early prospects for 2009/10 winter crops are favorable.

(Feb 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s corn production for 2008/09 at 49.5 million tons, down 2.0 millionor 4 percent from last month and down 9.1 million or 16 percent from last year. Harvested areais estimated at 14.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.5 million or 1percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.49 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last monthbut slightly above the 5-year average of 3.48 tons per hectare. Estimated yield was decreasedthis month due to severe drought in southern Brazil, where approximately half of the mainseason(first-crop) corn is grown. The drought lasted from mid-November until January andextended from the southern portion of Mato Grosso do Sul to Rio Grande do Sul. Damage isreported to be greatest in Parana, the country’s highest producing corn state, where the crop wasin the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages when the drought occurred. Losses werehigh also in Rio Grande do Sol, but damage was less severe than in Parana state because cropdevelopment was not as advanced and the dryness not as prolonged.Approximately one-third of the total corn crop is safrinha (winter) corn. Planting began inJanuary, following the harvest of the early-soybean crop. March 1 is considered the final cut-offdate for planting because crops planted after that date are unlikely to reach full maturity if therainy season ends early. CONAB (the National Company of Food Supply, an agency of theMinistry of Agriculture of Brazil) currently forecasts safrinha corn area at the same level as lastyear, but most industry forecasters expect area to decrease by 5 to10 percent due to highdomestic supplies from last year’s bumper crop and tighter credit for farmers. (For additionalinformation, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(Feb 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2008/09 at 57.0 million tons, down 2.0million or 3 percent from last month and down 4.0 million or 7 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 21.3 million hectares, no change from last month and the same area as last year.Yield is forecast at 2.67 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month but above the 5-yearaverage yield of 2.59 tons per hectare.Weather has been generally favorable for crops in northern Brazil, but severe drought prevailedin the southernmost states from mid-November until January, especially in Parana and RioGrande do Sol. Damage was likely worst in Parana, where the crop was in the flowering stagewhen the drought occurred, and less severe in Rio Grande do Sul, where soybeans are currentlyin flowering stage and final yields will be strongly dependent on February and March rainfall.Estimated harvested area was lowered this month due to the drought in the southern states wherecrops in some fields did not germinate due to dryness.Mato Grosso, the highest soybean producing state, had harvested approximately 5 percent oftheir soybean crop by the end of January. Reported yields from the early harvest are generallygood, but below last year’s record yield due to less favorable weather, reduced application ofincreasingly expensive chemical fertilizer, and tighter credit. Reported cases of soybean rusthave been less frequent this year due to the dry weather. (For additional information, contactCurt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(Feb 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine cotton production for 2008/09 at 650,000 bales, down 50,000bales, a 7 percent reduction from last month. Area is estimated at 300,000 hectares, an 8 percentdecrease from last month. Yield is forecast at 472 kilograms per hectare, a 1 percent increasefrom last month and compared to the record high 547 kilograms per hectare in 1987/88.Hot, dry weather continued in Argentina’s cotton producing areas throughout January,with stress conditions varying according to field, soil types and planting date. Different soil typeswith varying moisture retention and release capacity have caused plant stands within individualfields to lack uniformity. Plants are maturing at different times depending on planting date,moisture received, and variety used. Moisture was very short in the major growing areas of Chaco and Eastern Santiago del Estero aswell as other cotton growing regions. Harvest will be made difficult this year due to plant heightdifferences in the fields with some low bolls and branches making machinery height adjustmentdifficult. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2008/09 at 13.5 million tons, down 3.0million tons or 18 percent from last month and down 7.35 million or 35 percent from last year.Area is estimated at 2.25 million hectares, down 0.25 million from last month and down 1.01million from last year. Yield is forecast at 6.0 tons per hectare, compared to the record high 8.04tons per hectare in 2006/07 and the five-year average of 6.96 tons per hectare.Continued dry conditions and high temperatures at key corn growth stages have reduced yieldand production expectations, particularly in Entre Rios, Santa Fe and areas of Buenos Aires.Rain was less than 25 percent of normal during December and dryness continued through mid-January. Only scant, scattered showers appeared in some corn growing regions in mid-January.Better rains last week were too little, too late as most of the southern corn moved into limitedgrain-fill stage toward an earlier-than-normal maturation.Corn mites have limited yield not only on field edges in the dry areas but within entire fields.Some Fusarium ear rot has infected corn ears in stressed fields, again limiting yield expectation.In worst-case fields, corn is being baled for forage or grazed.In better fields, ear tips are not filling and in some even drier fields ear tips and the butt-ends ofcobs are missing kernels due to heat stress during pollination. (For additional information,contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine soybean production for 2008/09 at 43.8 million tons, down 5.7million tons, a 12 percent reduction from last month. Area is estimated at 17.5 million hectares,a 3 percent decrease from last month. Yield is forecast at 2.50 tons per hectare, a 9 percentdecrease from last month and compared to the record high 2.99 tons per hectare in 2006/07.Hot, dry weather continued to affect Argentine soybean producing areas throughout January withmany provinces receiving only 10 to 74 percent normal precipitation during the month.Maximum daily temperatures often remained above 30oC to 40oC across the growing regionsduring the day, stressing plants further in already droughty soils.Many areas have seen low rainfall, the lowest on record since 1961. Rapid soil moistureevaporation further deteriorated plant conditions with limited scattered rain appearing throughJanuary. Much of the first crop of soybeans was in the critical flowering to beginning pod-fill stagesduring intense heat and drought. The last areas originally planned for soybean production werenot planted in January. Recent rains may end planting or in other cases allow some last, late planting to occur.Estimates currently suggest that first crop soybeans may have lost 30 to 60 percent of potentialyield. Some crops in the hardest hit fields in Entre Rios may be irreversibly damaged or alreadylost. Stand population, seeds per pod and pod count vary drastically across fields and soil types.Good February rains and soil moisture availability will be necessary for some recovery of yieldpotential and production. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 02, 2009)

In September of 2008 FOB Gulf prices for wheat were down slightly from prices in 2007, while prices for soybeans and corn were much higher, indicating the incentives to plant wheat for the 2009/10 crop have diminished compared to a year ago. Additionally, many market watchers have been reporting high input prices and lower availability of credit. With continuing low stock levels and fairly high prices compared to previous years, there are still incentives for Northern Hemisphere farmers to produce wheat, although they are less compelling than a year ago.

(Feb 02, 2009)

The total 2009/10 winter wheat and barley crop in Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) is well positioned to become a bumper or even record crop. The three-country region is normally a consistent, large import market for grain; however, if the region continues receiving favorably wet weather this spring, its imports could be dramatically reduced.

(Jan 12, 2009)

China's 2008/09 milled rice production is estimated at 135.1 million tons (193.0 million tonspaddy or rough basis), up 4.2 million from last month and up 4.9 million or 4 percent from lastyear. This is the largest crop since 1999/00. Area is estimated at 29.2 million hectares, up 1percent from last year. The estimated yield of 6.61 tons per hectare (rough) is up 3 percent fromlast year's record yield. The revision from last month is based on provincial harvest data andreports from China's Ministry of Agriculture and other Chinese sources that indicate higher grainyield and production. In December, the Ministry of Agriculture stated that China's total grainproduction reached a record 528.5 million tons, up about 27 million tons from last year. Paddyrice historically accounts for 36 to 38 percent of China's total grain outputChina produces three separate rice crops. Early rice and late rice (usually grown as a doublecrop) are grown in central and southern China and together account for about 36 percent of totalrice production, while middle/single crop rice (mainly japonica) is grown in northeast and centralChina and accounts for about 64 percent of total output. The Chinese government estimated the2008/09 early-rice crop at 32.5 million tons, up about 1.0 million from last year, with higheryields offsetting slightly lower area. Middle-crop production was expected to increase in2008/09 due to higher planted area, particularly in Heilongjiang, and generally favorableweather. Although typhoons and heavy rainfall caused localized crop damage in parts of theYangtze River basin, the impact on the rice crop was insignificant. Late-rice planting proceeded'smoothly and initial growing conditions were good. Unusually heavy rain in late October'slowed late rice development and caused quality problems in parts of southern China, but thereturn of dry weather in November aided maturation and harvest. (For more information,contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

China's 2008/09 corn production is estimated at a record 165.5 million tons, up 5.5 million or 3percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Corn area is estimated at 29.4 millionhectares, down slightly from last year. The estimated yield of 5.63 tons per hectare is up 9percent from last year and exceeds the previous record of 5.33 tons per hectare set in 2006/07.The revision is based on provincial harvest data and reports from China's Ministry of Agricultureand other Chinese sources, which indicated higher corn yield and production in 2008/09. Duringthe 2008 growing season, China's major corn-producing provinces experienced abundantmoisture, seasonable temperatures, a general absence of drought, and only minor flood damage,resulting in excellent yields overall. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

Brazil's corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 51.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month, and down 7.1 million or 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at14.2 million hectares, no change from last month but down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.63 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average yield of 3.48 tons per hectare but below the 10-year trend yield of 3.87 tons per hectare. The national corn yield was decreased this month due to high temperatures and dryness in southern Brazil when the main-season crop was in the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages. The drought started in mid-November, continued though December, and was most severe in the state of Parana. Total corn area will depend on safrinha (winter) corn area which farmers will begin planting this month immediately after the early soybean harvest. Last year, safrinha area was 5.1 million hectares or 34 percent of total corn area, while this year's safrinha area is currently forecast at 4.9 million hectares or 4.5 percent less than last year. Some industry forecasters expect that safrinha area could drop even lower due to high domestic supplies from last year's bumper crop, low domestic corn prices, tight credit, higher climatic risks with the safrinha crop, and higher input and transport costs in central Brazil where most of the safrinha corn is grown. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

India's 2008/09 cotton production is estimated at 23.0 million bales, down 1.0 million or 4percent from last month, and down 1.6 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at9.35 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year, and yield is estimated at 536kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last year. According to the FAS Office ofAgricultural Affairs in New Delhi, this season's planted area decreased compared to last seasonbecause of delayed planting and a shift to other crops. In parts of central and southern India,planting was delayed due to insufficient July rainfall. The delays resulted in a relatively shorterplanting window. Additionally, farmers in some parts of the country, including Gujarat andMaharashtra, decided to plant short-season, early-maturing cotton varieties instead. In general,'such varieties are lower yielding than full-season varieties. In the mainly irrigated northerngrowing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, planted area is estimated down 17 percent ona year-to-year basis due chiefly to a shift from cotton to other crops such as coarse grains.Harvesting continues to progress very well, facilitated by mild, dry weather conditions.However, market arrivals are slow compared to the same period last year. Cotton Corporation ofIndia reports that cumulative cotton arrivals through January 3, 2009 are estimated at 9.98million US bales, down 21 percent compared to 12.7 during the same period last year. Thedecline in arrivals is significantly larger in the major cotton producing states of Gujarat,Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2008/09 at 16.5 million tons, down 1.5million or 8 percent from last month and down 4.35 million or 21 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 2.50 million hectares, down 0.07 million from last month and down 0.76 millionfrom last year. Yield is forecast at 6.60 tons per hectare, compared to the record high 8.04 tonsper hectare in 2006/07 and the five-year average of 6.96 tons per hectare.Dry conditions and high temperatures have lowered yield and production expectations,particularly in the states of Entre Rios, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Rain was less than25 percent of normal during December, making this the worst drought in 70 years. Thecontinued dryness and the lateness of the planting window have reduced sown area. As ofDecember 31, only 91 percent of the corn area had been planted.Lower commodity prices and the high cost of production will cut profits this year. Fertilizer useon the corn crop was limited, and the current extreme drought has further discouraged farmersfrom finishing planting all of the originally expected corn area. With half the crop already in thelate vegetative to early silking stages or beyond, the multiple bouts of dryness that have hit cornwill produce mixed yields. Highly variable development will complicate crop management andharvest. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)