Title: Allocating Fire Mitigation Funds on the Basis of the Predicted Probabilities of Forest Wildfire

Author: McRoberts, Ronald E.; Liknes, Greg C.; Nelson, Mark D.; Gebert, Krista M.; Barbour, R. James; Odell, Susan L.; Yaddof, Steven C.

Year: 2005

Publication: In: Proceedings of the fifth annual forest inventory and analysis symposium; 2003 November 18-20; New Orleans, LA. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-69. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 222p.

Abstract: A logistic regression model was used with map-based information to predict the probability of forest fire for forested areas of the United States. Model parameters were estimated using a digital layer depicting the locations of wildfires and satellite imagery depicting thermal hotspots. The area of the United States in the upper 50th percentile with respect to predicted probability of forest wildfire was intersected with areas within 25 miles of rural communities needing economic assistance using a geographic information system. The proportion of total forest wildfire mitigation funds to be allocated to each national forest region was calculated as the ratio of intersected area in the region to all intersected areas nationwide.