Rural Population and Migration: Trend 6—Challenges From an Aging Population

Rural Population and Migration Briefing Room Trend 1—Harder to Define "Rural" Trend 2—Nonmetro Population Growth Slows Trend 3—Amenities Fuel Rapid Population Growth Trend 4—Natural Decrease on the Rise Trend 5—Diversity Increases in Nonmetro America Trend 6—Challenges From an Aging Population

Nonmetro America Faces Challenges From an Aging Population

The role of population aging in U.S. domestic policy debates, such as those on the future of Social Security and Medicare, will intensify as the 65-and-older population increases rapidly. Conditions and trends affecting nonmetro older Americans have long been major research and policy issues, for several reasons:

• Nonmetro areas have a larger share of older people (15 percent who were older than 65 in 2004) than the country as a whole (12 percent).

• Compared with their metro counterparts, nonmetro older Americans generally have less income, lower educational attainment, and a higher dependence on social security income, creating greater demand for medical, social, and financial assistance.

• Service delivery is more difficult because of fewer service providers per capita and higher per capita costs in sparsely populated, remote areas; attracting doctors, nurses, and other service professionals is difficult for many rural areas.

The population 65 and older living in nonmetro areas numbered just under 7.5 million in 2004, according to the most recent age-specific county population estimates. Two processes contributing to nonmetro aging will accelerate over the next several years:

• Aging in place: The number of people turning 65 each year reached a low point in the first half of this decade, reflecting the low birth cohorts during the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s, but the number is poised to increase rapidly beginning this year. Growth rates from aging-in-place alone will triple among the nonmetro older population, from 6 percent in this decade to 18 percent in the 2010s.

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• Net migration: The propensity to migrate to rural settings increases among empty nesters and retirees, and their numbers are rising as the Baby Boom generation enters this lifecycle stage. Baby Boomers exhibited a marked affinity for moving to rural destinations during the dot.com boom of the 1990s, long before reaching traditional retirement ages. The trend will likely pick up as Boomers reach their 60th birthday beginning in 2006.

Rural Areas Are Older Because of Previous Outmigration

The higher concentration of rural elderly is due to a persistent pattern of net outmigration among rural youth. In almost all settings, the propensity to migrate is highest among individuals ages 20-30, and rural-to-urban migration among young adults always outnumbers its counterstream. Outmigration rates peaked in the 1950s and 1960s and have fluctuated since then, but even during periods of above average rural growth such as the 1990s, outmigration exceeded inmigration among young adults.

Rural net inmigration of those 65 and older has also added to a high concentration of elderly, especially during the past decade. However, the impact is not as substantial as the impact of continuous outmigration of young adults. Rural youth outmigration will likely continue to exceed inmigration, but its impact on the share of elderly is diminishing because the numbers and rates of rural outmigration are much lower than in the past.

Elderly Well Being Depends on Location

Aging-in-place and net migration affect older nonmetro populations differently. On average, older Americans are less well off in nonmetro compared with metro areas. However, nonmetro counties are increasingly diverse, for two reasons:

• Population growth from aging-in-place and net migration happen in different areas.

• The nonmetro, aging-in-place population is less well off socioeconomically than are recent older inmigrants to rural areas.

Therefore, among nonmetro counties with above-average elderly concentrations, it is possible to distinguish two very different types. The majority (288 out of 536) are also classified as ERS population-loss counties: Their high elderly concentration results from long-term young-adult outmigration, a trend that for most of these counties continues to this day. Among the remaining high-elderly counties, a majority (141) are classified as ERS retirement-destination counties: High net inmigration of retirees explains the high elderly proportions among these counties. Almost all of the population-loss types are found in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt and extensively overlap the natural decrease counties identified in Trend 4—Natural Decrease on the Rise.

Retiree-age newcomers to nonmetro areas tend to be better educated, wealthier, and more likely to be married rather than living alone, compared with the nonmetro aging-in-place population. In addition, they often relocate to nonmetro counties that contain, or are adjacent to, large cities containing a broader range of services important to this age group.

For the aging-in-place population, the range of nonmetro health care services is narrower, health services are less accessible and more costly to deliver, and fewer health care providers offer specialized services. These locational disadvantages are hard to address in areas that are still losing younger working-age people and experiencing declining population and tax bases. On the other hand, retirement areas often benefit from growth, as inmigrating retirees boost the tax base and help sustain local businesses. Taking into account these locational differences could enhance the effectiveness of policies and programs for the older population.