000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050322
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 04N94W TO 02N112W TO 03N134W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM OF 06N87W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 03N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES WESTERN N AMERICA AND THE EASTERN N
PACIFIC WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 32N130W TO 20N137W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
129W AND 143W. FURTHER N...A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SWEEPING
CYCLONICALLY E THROUGH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N106W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N96W...AND DOMINATING THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CONUS. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONCENTRATES INTO A
PLUME SPREADING NE AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 15N140W TO
25N122W TO BEYOND 32N111W THEN SPILLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
NOW PLUNGING SE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA BUT
SEEMS TO EVAPORATE ALONG 28N ATTM.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 20N74W TO 11N84W TO A SMALL STATIONARY UPPER
CYCLONE AT 06N98W. CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ WAS
ENHANCED BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
NE OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THE
MOISTURE CONTINUING NE IN TRANSVERSE BANDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY E OF 115W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 29N122W. A RIDGE IS BUILDING E
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 27N140W TO 27N120W TO 17N112W. NW SWELLS
ARE PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KT EXCEPT 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400
UTC DAILY. NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KT...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
20 TO 25 KT THU AND FRI DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. THESE GAP WINDS
ARE GENERATING A SWATH OF NE SWELL THAT PROPAGATES W TO AROUND
115W MIXING WITH THE TRAIN OF NW SWELLS MENTIONED ABOVE.
CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
MAINTAINING A 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA
WELL INTO FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W EXTENDING TO 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF
AXIS BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF 10-15 KT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS IS
STILL RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE W ATLC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALOFT...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF
WATERS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG NW WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
PUERTO RICO THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
14N74W. AT THIS POINT...IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING ALONG
12N78W INTO WESTERN PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA PER THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THOSE ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS SFC HIGH WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THU
THROUGH SUN. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC
AND THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 23N62W
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1041 SFC HIGH
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY EAST OF
45W...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
GFS COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N56W ON FRI. A DIFFERENCE IN PRES BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL RAISE
WINDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY BETWEEN 56W-70W INCLUDING
ALSO THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AROUND 180 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER- LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 3N47W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF
30W...AND OVER N SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 02N107W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE FROM 06N85W TO 04N91W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 03N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES WESTERN N AMERICA AND THE EASTERN N
PACIFIC WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
32N130W TO 19N137W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED NEAR THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 130W AND
145W. FURTHER N...UPPER MOISTURE IS SWEEPING CYCLONICALLY E
THROUGH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N105W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N97W...AND DOMINATING THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CONUS. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM
CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONCENTRATES INTO A
PLUME SPREADING NE AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 15N140W TO
BEYOND 32N112W THEN SPILLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW PLUNGING SE
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 20N74W TO 11N84W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT
06N98W. CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ WAS ENHANCED BETWEEN
83W AND 93W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS COSTA
RICA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY E OF 115W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 28N127W. A RIDGE IS BUILDING E
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 27N140W TO 17N112W. NW SWELLS ARE
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT THU AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI. NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KT...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
20 TO 25 KT THU AND FRI DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. THESE GAP WINDS
ARE GENERATING A SWATH OF NE SWELL THAT PROPAGATES W TO AROUND
115W MIXING WITH THE TRAIN OF NW SWELLS MENTIONED ABOVE.
CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
MAINTAINING A 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA
WELL INTO FRI.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W EXTENDING TO 2S31W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 13W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE GULF. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. ALSO...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THE COOL
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF REGION. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E
GULF...WHERE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM E PANAMA NEAR 9N82W TO 15N74W TO E HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION...WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENT. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 67W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND W
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE E CARIBBEAN TO E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 22N66W TO 26N62W
TO 32N59W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS A
STATIONARY FRONT S OF 22N...AND IS A COLD FRONT ALONG AND N OF
22N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND AN UPPER LOW S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 25N33W. THIS
UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED AS A REX BLOCK PATTERN. THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND W
CARIBBEAN...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 29N52W TO 31N53W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE E ATLC...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 58W WITH
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 3N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 1N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

$$
COHEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG AXIS 06N77W TO 02N96W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 90W
TO 93W.

...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO
21N130W. THIS FEATURE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BECOMING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
25N140W BY LATE FRI. THE WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT IS ALLOWING A
SURFACE CURRENTLY FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 27N130W TO
DISSIPATE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 25N TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. A 13Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION SHOW 20 KT NORTHERN WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
ROUGHLY 100W WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED DEEP INTO CARIBBEAN
BASIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED SPORADIC
GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS
FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRAINAGE FLOW IS ENHANCING THE
GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...WITH AN EARLY
MORNING MAXIMUM NOTED ON AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT PERSISTS THROUGH PANAMA
INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY W
OF 115W. THIS IS MIXING WITH EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OFF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT THIS
IS TAPERING OFF.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...
TO 2S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 7N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. THE GULF OF
MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...RECEIVING
NOTHING BUT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
HAS EXITED THE AREA COMPLETELY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RAINING
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA TO COASTAL HONDURAS
JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
TO 17N70W 10N80W...TO WESTERN PANAMA...CURVING TO NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST THE HAITI-COSTA RICA LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 10N60W BEYOND 24N57W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
HAITI-COSTA RICA LINE FINDS ITSELF STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 20N67W THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N60W 24N57W
BEYOND 32N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND
FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD WITHIN AT LEAST 400 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 26N63W BEYOND 32N60W.
THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SUBSIDED.
A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 29N51W...WITH A TROUGH GOING
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N50W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 1000 NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW/TROUGH.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041027
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 02N98W TO 04N128W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 86W-94W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND SW FROM 32N129W TO
19N140W WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS W OF AXIS.  SWATH OF MOISTURE
RIDES SW JET CORE OF 120 KT INTO NRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NW MEXICO.  SURFACE LOW PRES 1000 MB WELL N OF AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH SRN CALIFORNIA READY TO CONVERT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.  LARGE SURFACE RIDGE NW OF BASIN FORCING LARGE
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ACROSS E PAC W OF 110W AND STRONG NE TRADE
WINDS COMBINE TO MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT ALMOST ENTIRE
BASIN.  WEAKENING RIDGE FORCED E BY FRONT FORCING STRONG NW
WINDS ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH EXTEND
ALONG 103W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS SE OF MOISTURE SWATH DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  DRYNESS EXTEND E THROUGH
REMAINDER OF E PAC...EXCEPT MINOR LINE ALONG ITCZ OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM WIDE ALONG 05N FROM 86W-94W.

WITH COLD FRONT OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO WRN CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER AND DOWN WIND OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT
WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  STRONG NE WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA...
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINOR
CHANGES ONLY.

$$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXNT20 KNHC 040540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...
TO 1S30W 1S39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
3W AND 5W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. THE GULF OF
MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...RECEIVING
NOTHING BUT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
HAS EXITED THE AREA COMPLETELY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RAINING
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 16N75W 13N80W...TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 60W. THE
EASTERN 55 PERCENT OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF STILL ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 60W RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 21N69W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 16N75W 13N80W...TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 60W FROM THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA AREA BEYOND 32N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
25N65W BEYOND 32N61W. THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM
16+ HOURS AGO HAS SUBSIDED. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR
28N50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N48W AND
21N49W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LOW/TROUGH.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 03N100W TO 05N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
07N84W TO 04N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PACIFIC WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N132W TO 18N138W. A
BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE PATTERN WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N123W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED AT 19N109W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND
32N102W...AND DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF CENTRAL N AMERICA.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS EXTENDS
SW ALONG 18N85W TO A BASE NEAR 01N101W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC...
CONCENTRATES INTO A PLUME AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 16N134W TO BEYOND
32N115W THEN SPILLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SOME OF THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW PLUNGING SE OVER
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE
ACROSS COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY E OF
115W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT THU AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE
AT 20 TO 30 KT...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT WED AND
THU...BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF 30 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED. THESE
GAP WINDS ARE GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF EASTERLY SWELL THAT
WILL PROPAGATE W TO AROUND 115W MIXING WITH THE ONGOING NW
SWELL. CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH THU.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W EXTENDING TO 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 5W-10W INCLUDING MUCH OF LIBERIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED ALONG NORTHERN BRAZIL WHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR
3S44.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FOUND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND BETWEEN
41W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ON A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF.
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE W GULF BEGINNING TOMORROW. ALOFT...STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF REGION...WHERE A DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.
THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF...WHERE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AS A STATIONARY FRONT...THROUGH
HISPANIOLA THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO FRESH
NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE FRONT
IS ALSO GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ALSO
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVES SEWD OVER THE CAROLINAS WED AND THEN INTO THE
W ATLC WED NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PUERTO RICO WED AND THU WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N63W THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 28N64W, AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO COSTA RICA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ASSISTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1035 MB
HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N48W. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS OR SO. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 25N46W TO
21N48W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-44W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND STRONG 1042 SFC HIGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF
THE AZORES IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF
AREA AND WITHIN AROUND 300 NM NE OF THE LOW CENTER. A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
40W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 5N50W DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER N SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N77W TO 01N100W TO 03N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 04N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PACIFIC WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N131W TO 20N140W. A
BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE PATTERN WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N122W TO 24N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED AT 20N11W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND
32N103W...AND DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF CENTRAL N AMERICA.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTER SEABOARD OF THE CONUS EXTENDS
SW ALONG 23N83W TO 13N90W TO BASE NEAR 02N100W. UPPER DEBRIS
MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
PACIFIC...CONCENTRATES INTO A PLUME AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 17N133W TO
BEYOND 32N113W THEN SPILLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW PLUNGING SE
OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE
ITCZ NEAR 03N93W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED E NE ACROSS
COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY E OF 115W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO ABOUT
20 KT ON THU. NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KT...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
20 TO 25 KT WED AND THU...BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF 30 KT JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WED. THESE GAP WINDS ARE GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF
EASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE W TO AROUND 115W MIXING WITH
ONGOING NW SWELL. CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W EXTENDING TO 2S35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS IN PLACE.
THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE CONUS. AS A
RESULT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTS OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HIGHER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF
REGION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE N GULF...WHERE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM E COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W TO 16N79W AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 16N79W TO SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONTS. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF
THE FRONTS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION...WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS. THE FRONTS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
THESE SHOWERS IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 27N67W TO 32N65W TO N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
PRESENT...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N46W WITH A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N48W TO 30N42W...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 24N43W TO 22N50W...AND A SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 26N37W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTS IS SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 44W-49W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
04/1200 UTC. ACROSS THE E ATLC...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 56W.

$$
COHEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031521
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 01N100W TO 03N125W TO 02N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG ROUGHLY 105W N OF 15N...MOVING EAST AHEAD
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 45N125W
TO 22N140W. AT THE SURFACE...SCATTEROMETER DATA JIVES WITH THE
BROAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO
INDICATE THE POSITION OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...RELATED TO THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 24N140W...TO THE
WEST OF WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N126W. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND FILLS THROUGH MIDDAY WED...AHEAD OF A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ORIENTED MORE E-W ALONG 35N...DEPRIVING THE FRONT
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND ALLOWING IT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 30N WED INTO
THU AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. MEANWHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS TO 17FT
IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

E OF 110W...WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ARE ENHANCING FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW IS
ENHANCED FURTHER BY EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW...GIVING AN 12Z
DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF UP TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE COMBINED EASTERLY
COMPONENTS OF THE GAP WINDS ARE GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF
EASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO AROUND 115W AND MIX WITH
ONGOING NW SWELL. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA...MAINTAINING 20 TO 25
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 2S30W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N EAST
OF 45W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 20W AND BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N66W TO 22N70W TO THE TURKS ISLANDS...ACROSS
HAITI TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W...CURVING TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO 24N69W 29N66W BEYOND
32N64W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
70W AND 77W...STILL TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI
TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W...CURVING TO THE NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W...STILL TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS MOVING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO SOUTHERN COASTAL
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF 70W. BROAD
LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND TWO CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
30N45W...CONNECTED TO A SECOND 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
30N42W BY AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N42W
TO 26N37W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N45W LOW CENTER TO 27N43W
AND 25N50W AND 29N59W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW RUNS FROM
MOROCCO/ALGERIA/MAURITANIA TO THE WESTERN SAHARA AND STOPS NEAR
20N30W WAS CONNECTED TO THE WARM FRONT 12 HOURS AGO.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031019
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N95W TO 01N128W TO 02N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH DROP FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 45N131W
OVER NW PART OF AREA FROM 32N135W TO 15N140W.  SERIES OF QUICK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND BASE OF VORTEX BRINGING SURFACE
TROUGHS OVER BASIN NW CORNER THEN SHIFT NE OUT OF AREA THROUGH
THU.  BROAD STURDY RIDGE ALONG 107W MAINTAINS AREA E OF 120W
VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...
INCLUDING ENTIRE LENGTH OF ITCZ.

SURFACE HIGH PRES 1036 MB W OF AREA PUSHING LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS ACROSS W HALF OF E PAC SPREADING S TO THE EQUATOR.
STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH ALONG LINE
THROUGH 32N127W TO 20N135W.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISH EARLY TODAY AS
HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS E.

STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE FORCED BY STRONG NE FLOW CAUSED BY HEALTHY
COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUE THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG UNSEASONAL COLD FRONT CROSSES NW
CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 2S30W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N
EAST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST
OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N68W TO 24N70W
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
16N80W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
NORTHERN HAITI TO 23N69W 27N67W BEYOND BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
16N80W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS INTO
A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW IS MOVING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO SOUTHERN COASTAL HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
EAST OF 70W. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IN PARTS OF COLOMBIA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND TWO CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A 1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N43W...CONNECTED TO A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N41W
BY AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N41W TO
26N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 29N41W LOW CENTER TO 26N42W
AND 23N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW RUNS FROM MOROCCO
TO THE WESTERN SAHARA AND STOPS NEAR 21N27W WAS CONNECTED TO THE
WARM FRONT SOME 6 HOURS TO 12 HOURS AGO.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO
02N100W TO 02N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ. WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N121W TO 10N140W.
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THIS AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS NORTH OF 30N THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DIMINISHING SOME
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH STRONG
TROUGH ALONG 130W MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N IS PRODUCING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NW OF THE AREA WHICH ARE PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONE
QUARTER OF THE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15N140W TO 26N125W TO BEYOND 32N119W. INCLUDED WITHIN
THIS AREA IS A BAND OF MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOUT 400 NM
ACROSS.

THE AREA EAST OF 130W SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N127W TO 20N135W. THIS IS A FEATURE
THAT WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS NORTH
OF 15N. S OF 15N BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL FALL
TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE AREA WILL DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LL

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 5N10W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W TO
3S30W AND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 19W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE W AFRICA COAST
BETWEEN 3W-7W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS OF
2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. 10-15 KT NLY FLOW AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE NRN GULF COAST...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING
THE GULF REGION WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OBSERVED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WRN CUBA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N80W
AND INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS ERN CUBA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NLY WINDS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
RESULTING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N...WHILE BEING USHERED
WWD ON MODERATE TRADEWINDS LOCATED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS S TO NEAR MAYAGUANA
ISLAND IN THE SE BAHAMAS THEN INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N OVER THE W ATLC.
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ERN U.S. COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
36W-42W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE ERN ATLC ALONG 32N8W 24N20W 25N30W TO 30N36W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 7N IS E OF 60W TO THE W
AFRICA COAST.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022123
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO
02N100W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 01N TO 03N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N121W TO 10N140W.
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THIS AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS NORTH OF 28N RETREATING TO NORTH OF 30N TUESDAY THEN
DIMINISHING SOME WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA
COUPLED WITH STRONG TROUGH ALONG 130W MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N IS
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NW OF THE AREA WHICH ARE
PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS ABOUT
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 25N125W TO BEYOND
32N119W. INCLUDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A BAND OF MULTI LEVEL
OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOUT 400 NM ACROSS.

THE AREA EAST OF 130W SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N135W. THIS IS A FEATURE
THAT WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS NORTH
OF 15N. S OF 15N BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA HAVE
DIMINISHED TO GALE FORCE AND WILL FALL TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE
TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE AREA WILL DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LL

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 6N10W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W TO
3S30W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 12W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 18W-23W...AND FROM
1S-4S BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 33N94W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF
29N. FLORIDA ...THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND MEXICO W OF
97W...HAVE FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 28N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS ALONG 21N76W
15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W... AND ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N71W 26N73W 21N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A
1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N43W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N44W 23N46W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N10W 26N20W 26N30W 30N35W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N E OF 50W
TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICS WITH AXIS ALONG 5N FROM
10W-50W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 05N85W TO 02N100W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 135W N OF 30N...THEN SW TOWARD HAWAII. A STRONG
NORTHERLY JET DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N133W TO 30N140W...AS NOTED
BY DISTINCT STRATO-CUMULUS FIELDS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
CUTS OFF THROUGH TUE...AND LIFTS OUT TO THE PACIFIC NW
STATES...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST. FURTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 110W...AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH 48
HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N123W
LIFTS NE ACCORDINGLY...ALTHOUGH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM N OF
HAWAII EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 27N THROUGH TUE...BEHIND THE
WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALLOWS NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE N
BAJA COAST TO INCREASE TUE INTO WED. AN AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS
NOTED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 06Z...SOUTH OF THE THIS SURFACE
RIDGE....MAINLY S OF 20N AND W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
EAST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS EAST THROUGH TUE.
MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

E OF 115W...MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING STORM FORCE GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS DIMINISHES TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY...THEN
BELOW GALE TUE. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...TRADES
INCREASE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...ALLOWING INCREASED FLOW
THROUGH THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO AS WELL. THE
CONVERGING FLOW THROUGH THE GAPS IS PUSHING WESTWARD...WITH
SUBSEQUENT EASTERLY SWELL TO CONVERGE WITH NW SWELL W OF 105W.
FURTHER S...CARIBBEAN TRADES ALSO PUSHING THROUGH GULF OF
PANAMA...BRINGING NORTHERLY 20 FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH WED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 4S30W...AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 7S41W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFF AFRICA COAST BETWEEN
3W AND 12W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA
TO NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE FRONT BREAKS UP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS
NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N108W. SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTEND
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N71W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THIS FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS
IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER PARTS OF COLOMBIA FROM ITS SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD 10N74W...
IN POSSIBLY BROAD WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
32N71W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N21W SUPPORTS
IN SOME WAY THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRADDLES 30N
BETWEEN 16W AND THE 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N46W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST ALONG 27N51W TO
23N55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 25N40W. A SECOND DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ALSO IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH FEATURE...THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N48W TO 22N63W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER AND TROUGH.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N100W TO 02N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER NW PART OF AREA 32N126W TO
22N140W WITH STRONG 150 KT SW JET STREAM ADVECTING SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 112W BLOCKS ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS IT KEEPS AIR MASS VERY DRY UNDER ITS MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N126W TO 23N131W LOST ITS PUNCH AS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT SWUNG NE.  FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TODAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW WITHIN NEXT 24
HRS.  STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT PRODUCING
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING INTO E PAC W OF 120W ALL THE
WAY TO THE EQUATOR.

HEALTHY GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CAUSING STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATER
TODAY AND BE BELOW GALE FORCE TUE AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER E.
UPON ENTERING WRN CARIBBEAN BASIN...FRONT FORCES INCREASING NE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOUNTAIN GAPS EMERGING IN E PAC
ALONG GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.  MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
WINDS SHORT OF GALE FORCE.  SIMILARLY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF
OF PANAMA INCREASE TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXNT20 KNHC 020542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO
3S34W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S41W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA...
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS EVERYWHERE. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY IS MOVING ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS GUATEMALA...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT IS BROKEN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND
GALE-FORCE ARE BLOWING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM THE
ISTHMUS NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N108W. SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND
77W...AND IN THE WATERS FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THIS FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF
BOGOTA COLOMBIA...COMPARATIVELY IN BETWEEN TWO MOUNTAIN RANGES
IN POSSIBLY BROAD WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER FROM THE LATITUDE OF
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MARACAIBO TOWARD THE COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOME DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA/GEORGIA/FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
HAS SPILLED INTO THE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND
77W...AND IN THE WATERS FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N21W SUPPORTS IN SOME WAY THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRADDLES
30N BETWEEN 15W AND THE 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N46W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST ALONG 28N51W TO
23N55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 25N40W. A SECOND DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ALSO IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH FEATURE...THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N48W TO 22N63W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
26N63W TO 24N71W TO 23N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N31W 18N35W 7N37W.

$$
MT