2009-18 Long-Term Agricultural Projections

Each year, USDA makes 10-year economic projections for the food and agriculture sector. The projections reflect a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic developments and farm policies, and cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income and food prices. One key use of the projections is as a "starting point" from which to analyze the impacts of potential policy changes on U.S. agriculture.

Highlights

Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect adjustments to the global economic slowdown and the U.S. recession. Additionally, over the next several years, the livestock sector continues to adjust to higher feed prices seen in 2007 and 2008. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU). Although increases in corn-based ethanol production in the United States are projected to slow, ethanol demand remains high and affects production, use, and prices of farm commodities throughout the sector. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for vegetable oils in global markets. Further, once the world economies recover from the current slowdown, steady economic gains support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. As a result, although net farm income initially declines from the highs of 2007 and 2008, it remains historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels in the latter part of the projections. U.S. retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2011 (particularly meats in 2010 and 2011), but then food prices return to the longer term relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period.

Historic Reports

The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing USDA’s Agricultural Projections report. For information on previous long-term projections, see the Current and Previous Baseline Projections page in the ERS Baseline Briefing Room.