Pacific Southwest

Title: Forest Management Under Uncertainty for Multiple Bird Population Objectives

Author: Moore, Clinton T.; Plummer, W. Todd; Conroy, Michael J.

Date: 2005

Source: In: Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D., editors 2005. Bird Conservation Implementation and Integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the Third International Partners in Flight Conference. 2002 March 20-24; Asilomar, California, Volume 1 Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-191. Albany, CA: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: p. 373-380

Station ID: GTR-PSW-191

Description: We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

Keywords: adaptive management, forest management, Hylocichla mustelina, models, Picoides borealis, Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, Red-cockaded Woodpecker, uncertainty, Wood Thrush

View and Print this Publication (323 KB)

Publication Notes: 

• We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
• This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
• You may send email to pubrequest@fs.f ed.us to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)

 Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

Citation

Moore, Clinton T.; Plummer, W. Todd; Conroy, Michael J.   2005.  Forest Management Under Uncertainty for Multiple Bird Population Objectives .   In: Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D., editors 2005. Bird Conservation Implementation and Integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the Third International Partners in Flight Conference. 2002 March 20-24; Asilomar, California, Volume 1 Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-191. Albany, CA: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: p. 373-380.