February 22, 2005

Vaccinating More Kids Could Slow Flu Transmission

When it comes to the flu, the best way to prevent illnesses and deaths might be vaccinating more children, according to mathematical models developed by biostatisticians Ira Longini and Elizabeth Halloran at Emory University Health Sciences Center. The models show that vaccinating 70 percent of school children, even if they're considered at low risk of flu complications, would drop community-wide flu transmission to very low levels. Giving the vaccine to only 50 percent of the children also would significantly reduce infection. Although this vaccine strategy needs to be evaluated more carefully, the researchers say it offers a possible alternative for controlling influenza, especially when the vaccine supply is limited. 

 

"Although research on computational models is in its infancy, it does show that models can be very valuable tools, especially when it comes to understanding the spread of disease. This work by the Emory group shows that large-scale computing can provide policymakers with additional information that can aid them in their decision-making processes," said Irene Eckstrand, NIGMS program director for the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, which develops computer simulations to better understand disease outbreaks and test different strategies for containing infection.

 

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Halloran home page
Longini home page

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