| Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision Making: Toward an Approach for Designing Intervention Strategies for Schistosomiasis japonica Robert C. Spear, Alan Hubbard, Song Liang, and Edmund Seto Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA Abstract
Mathematical models of disease transmission processes can serve as platforms for integration of diverse data, including site-specific information, for the purpose of designing strategies for minimizing transmission. A model describing the transmission of schistosomiasis is adapted to incorporate field data typically developed in disease control efforts in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in China, with the object of exploring the feasibility of model-based control strategies. The model is studied using computer simulation methods. Mechanistically based models of this sort typically have a large number of parameters that pose challenges in reducing parametric uncertainty to levels that will produce predictions sufficiently precise to discriminate among competing control options. We describe here an approach to parameter estimation that uses a recently developed statistical procedure called Bayesian melding to sequentially reduce parametric uncertainty as field data are accumulated over several seasons. Preliminary results of applying the approach to a historical data set in southwestern Sichuan are promising. Moreover, technologic advances using the global positioning system, remote sensing, and geographic information systems promise cost-effective improvements in the nature and quality of field data. This, in turn, suggests that the utility of the modeling approach will increase over time. Key words: disease transmission, mathematical models, parameter estimation, schistosomiasis. Environ Health Perspect 110:907-915 (2002) . [Online 12 August 2002] http://ehpnet1.niehs.nih.gov/docs/2002/110p907-915spear/ abstract.html Address correspondence to R. Spear, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of California, 140 Warren Hall #7360, Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 USA. Telephone: (510) 642-0761. Fax: (510) 642-5815. E-mail: spear@uclink4.berkeley.edu We acknowledge our long-standing collaboration with the Schistosomiasis Department, Sichuan Institute of Parasitic Disease, Chengdu, under the leadership of D. Qiu and X. Gu, as well as with the Schistosomiasis Control Unit of Xichang County. Financial support for this work was provided in part by the Endemic Disease Office of the Provincial Government of Sichuan and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, 1RO1-AI43962. Received 26 October 2001 ; accepted 5 March 2002.
The full version of this article is available for free in HTML or PDF formats. |
