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National Drought Summary -- January 27, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Midwest and Northeast: Cold, dry conditions over northern areas contrasted with late-week rain and snow farther south. Drought remained unchanged throughout the region, although a mid-week storm provided beneficial moisture in the form of snow, sleet, and freezing rain but caused travel disruptions and widespread power outages.

The Plains: Drought continued to expand under a dry, unseasonably warm weather regime. In Texas, where temperatures averaged as much as 12 degrees F above normal, declining pasture and wheat conditions were symbolic of increasing rainfall deficits and depleted soil moisture supplies. Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) drought designations were expanded northward to encompass much of central Texas, with 90-day percent of normal precipitation averaging less than 10% over much of northern Texas. In Oklahoma, large precipitation departures (more than 6 inches) over the past 90 days across the state’s southern tier resulted in a similar expansion of D1 and D2, although some rain (locally more than an inch) in east-central Oklahoma mitigated the drought expansion somewhat. Abnormal dryness was also noted in southern Kansas, where highs in the lower 70s (degrees F) exacerbated the impacts of developing moisture deficits. Elsewhere, cold dry conditions over the northern Plains resulted in no change to lingering D0 and D1 drought.

Southeast: Generally dry albeit cool weather prevailed over the region. Streamflows continued to decline in North Carolina, where D0 was reintroduced to central portions of the state. Abnormally dry conditions expanded over much of Florida, with southeastern urban areas reporting locally less than 30 percent of normal over the past 90 days.

The Delta: Dry weather prevailed, with an eastward expansion of D0 along the Gulf Coast into the westernmost portions of the Florida Panhandle. Temperatures for the week averaged near normal.

The West: Despite much-needed rain and snow, drought continued to expand over northern California. A Pacific storm system generated 1 to locally more than 5 inches of rain across central and northeastern California, temporarily slowing the worsening drought gripping much of the state. The rain and snow bypassed northwestern California, where extreme 90- and 180-day precipitation deficits (locally more than 12 inches) have caused an expansion of Extreme (D3) drought. Abnormal dryness (D0) also expanded into far southwestern portions of Oregon, where little if any rain fell during the past week. The remainder of the region remained unchanged, thanks in part to widespread mountain snow.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Most of the Hawaiian Islands were dry on the heels of last week’s beneficial rainfall, with no change made to the current drought designation. In Puerto Rico, widespread showers (locally more than 4 inches) were reported during the past week, although amounts in the current D0 area were generally less than inch. Dry weather prevailed in Alaska, with temperatures averaging more than 10 degrees F above normal across the southern half of the state.

Looking Ahead: A strong cold front will sweep across the eastern half of the nation, bringing the threat of another freeze to Florida. The cold air will set the stage for yet another winter storm early next week across the eastern U.S., as moisture from the Gulf begins to work back north. High pressure will maintain mostly dry, warm weather from the Plains to the Pacific Coast, although additional rain and mountain snow are expected in the Pacific Northwest.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (February 3-7) calls for above-normal temperatures from the Rockies and Great Plains into the Ohio River Valley, while near- to below-normal temperatures prevail across the Southeast and Pacific Coast states. Below-normal precipitation is expected in the eastern Gulf Coast states as well as the High Plains, Rockies, and Southwest. Wetter-than-normal conditions are anticipated in the Northwest and from the upper and middle Mississippi River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

Author: Eric Luebehusen, United States Department of Agriculture

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological

Updated January 28, 2009