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An estimated doubling of the number of people over age 65 over the next two decades and simultaneous in-creases in cancer incidence, prevalence, and survivorship are expected to create a situation where the number of cancer patients far outstrips the number of oncologists available to treat them, according to a new report released last week.

Developed for the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the report estimates that by 2020 visits to oncologists will increase by 48 percent, while the projected supply of oncologists is expected to grow by only 14 percent over the same time period. The result: A shortfall of 9.4 to 15.1 million visits annually. Read more  

NCI Surveillance Program Helped Project Oncologist Shortage

The leadership of ASCO should be commended for sponsoring the AAMC report on the U.S. oncology work force. The conclusions they reach are clearly concerning: A potential shortage of 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists in the United States by 2020. In many respects, the fact that a shortage is being projected is not surprising. We have known for some time that the population is aging and that, as a result, cancer incidence and prevalence are likely to increase. Using data from SEER and the SEER-Medicare Linked Database, NCI was able to generate specific projections of cancer prevalence and of the demand for oncology services through 2020. These data, combined with information on medical school graduation rates and reports from other specialty medicine groups about work force availability, raise concerns that there may be a shortage of oncologists over the next two decades. Read more  

The NCI Cancer Bulletin is produced by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). NCI, which was established in 1937, leads the national effort to eliminate the suffering and death due to cancer. Through basic, clinical, and population-based biomedical research and training, NCI conducts and supports research that will lead to a future in which we can identify the environmental and genetic causes of cancer, prevent cancer before it starts, identify cancers that do develop at the earliest stage, eliminate cancers through innovative treatment interventions, and biologically control those cancers that we cannot eliminate so they become manageable, chronic diseases. For more information on cancer, call 1-800-4-CANCER or visit http://www.cancer.gov. NCI Cancer Bulletin staff can be reached at ncicancerbulletin@mail.nih.gov.