Using a case–cohort design, we selected 216 individuals who had incident coronary artery disease (case group) and 225 individuals from a cohort random sample (comparison group) from participants enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We measured plasma levels of MMP-1 and TIMP-1, traditional risk factors, and other markers of inflammation.

We found no significant difference in TIMP-1 levels between the case group (827.8 ± 23.8 ng/mL) and the comparison group (819.31 ± 16.1 ng/mL) (P=0.77), and no significant difference in the frequency of MMP-1 levels that were dichotomized at the minimum detectable value of 1.7 ng/mL (P=0.49). In models adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, and white blood cell count, the hazard-rate ratio for incident coronary artery disease was 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.63–2.04; P=0.67) for individuals whose TIMP-1 levels were above, versus at or below the mean, and 1.17 (95% confidence interval, 0.63–2.19; P=0.62) for individuals whose MMP-1 levels were above 1.7 ng/mL.

We conclude that TIMP-1 and MMP-1 levels in plasma were not predictive of incident coronary artery disease in a case–cohort random sample of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a population study of asymptomatic middle-aged adults who had no prevalent atherosclerosis upon enrollment.