February 16, 2007

How to Win In Iraq

I have heard from a lot of people in central Wisconsin who are upset that I have expressed my doubts about President Bush's surge policy.

Let me be clear: I support the troops, I support victory in Iraq, and I am opposed to a hasty withdrawal. However, I am concerned that 20,000 more U.S. troops there won't be enough to make a significant difference, and that the public isn't willing to commit the kinds of forces necessary to do the job that President Bush wants them to do. I am standing up and saying, "Stop, and give this some fresh thought!"

Unlike many of the Democrats who oppose the surge proposal because they oppose the President for political as well as policy reasons, I am trying to promote a new policy which could get us better results faster, and at less cost in lives. I think we need to define 'victory' in Iraq as reasonable stability with reasonably benign and reasonably representative government, but that our current effort to create a multi-cultural democracy has too much to overcome.

Our greatest problem right now is that neither the Sunnis, the Shias nor the Kurds are willing to allow themselves to be governed by members of the other groups. With great conflict and pain, the country is already dividing itself up along ethnic and sectarian lines. I think we can hasten stability by supporting the creation of a federal government under which Sunni, Shia and Kurd provinces would mostly be left to govern themselves.

This will require negotiations over territory and oil revenues. It will also require policing to keep the different parties apart. But it will be easier to keep them apart if separate provinces are established which are mostly homogeneous.

There is a reason why the Kurdish areas of Iraq are so peaceful and prosperous - there are few people there other than Kurds, and the Kurds run their own local government.

Southern Iraq is also relatively peaceful because that area is dominated by the Shias. The worst conflicts are in Baghdad where the three groups are jostling for control of neighborhoods, and in areas west of Baghdad where the Sunnis are fighting an insurgency against what they see as Americans allied with the Shias.

We can improve the situation relatively quickly by putting aside our desire that everybody just get along with each other, and instead accept that to reduce friction, the groups need to be allowed separate communities where each group will feel secure and in control of local affairs.