Unintended Consequences of
Emerging Technologies

Many emerging technologies have unintended consequences. Wireless technology, for example, has improved communication but significantly increased the weekly working hours for a growing segment of the workforce. The traditional 9-to-5 workday is rapidly changing as we are transformed by a 24-hour/7-day extended workweek with many people bonded to their electronic tools and gadgets even while they are commuting [Gleick 1999]. The risks, benefits, and psychosocial impact on workers coping with new communication devices and technologies in the new workplace should be understood [NIOSH 2002]. Driver distraction from cell phone usage, for example, has been associated with automobile crashes [Redelmeier and Tibshirani 1997].

In order to anticipate and plan for unintended consequences, innovative safety and health research must be conducted together with the development and deployment of emerging technologies. Safety and health benefits should then be communicated to consumers and workers to gain confidence and market acceptance of new devices. Research on early interventions may include, but is not limited to, the following:

• Extended/unusual work hours: The physiological and psychosocial impact on workers coping with longer working hours and new communication devices and technologies should be understood and proper interventions suggested.
• Systems safety design: Increasing awareness of inherently safer products and processes is essential so inventors and designers can focus on both technical feasibility and occupational and environmental health when developing new technologies.
• Engineering control technology: A review of all the materials and their intrinsic toxicity during the initial research stage should enable a comprehensive safety and health assessment of a new manufacturing process to reduce exposures to chemical and physical hazards. Innovative engineering controls of emissions in the manufacturing system that use new technologies and materials are possible.
• Life cycle assessment: A product life cycle approach to examine emissions and disposal issues should be considered to reduce the impact of toxins released to the environment. The analysis also needs to address environmental impacts of the product and manufacturing process. A prospective analysis needs to include protection of researchers and workers during the research and development or pre-manufacturing stages.
• Socioeconomic benefits of new and emerging technologies: A socioeconomic analysis, ranging from increased productivity for a particular production process to a new and sustainable economy as a result of a new or emerging technology, promotes and stimulates the research and development of new technologies.

Importance of Prospective Analysis of Emerging Technologies

Before making heavy investments in new technologies, a prospective analysis is needed to reduce the risk of emerging technologies to workers. This prospective analysis would continually iterate on the basis of current and accrued knowledge, such as potential benefits of the new technology and findings from research aimed at preventing worker exposure to or contact with hazards in the workplace.

As a result, worker safety and health may be improved by replacing hazardous technologies with emerging technologies that are benign or less hazardous through approaches such as technology options analysis, which will be discussed in the next chapter.

Numerous illustrations exist that highlight the importance of prospective analysis to worker safety and health. For example, a comprehensive assessment of the emissions and noise from a thermal metallic spray process at a pre-production facility for metallic coating reduced the multiple hazards at the developmental stage of a new, low risk manufacturing process [Chan et al. 1995a]. Similarly, the development of environmentally friendly refrigerant technology for mobile air conditioning systems resulted in the choice of the least toxic lubricant that was compatible with a new non-ozone depleting refrigerant (R134a). This decision was based on research findings from the exposure assessment of polyoxyalkylene glycol aerosols for a worst-case scenario [Chan et al. 1995b]. By including safety and health research early in the research and development (R&D) stage, researchers could assess the potential health impact of the emerging technologies and ultimately avoid or reduce their occupational health risks as the technologies move into production.

Research Approaches for Analyzing Emerging Technologies

Risk Assessment

Researchers need a framework to analyze emerging technologies for their risk and benefits to occupational safety and health. Risk assessment is the most accepted framework in the United States for assessing workplace and environmental hazards [NRC 1983; NRC 1993], although alternate methods exist such as technology assessment [Day and Schoemaker 2000], expert opinion [Fouke et al. 2000], or approaches such as the Precautionary Principle [CEC 2000]. Risk assessment uses research results that can also identify new research needs and be expanded to analyze an emerging technology’s potential benefits. Risk assessment can be expedited in an atmosphere of scientific discourse and consensus.

Moreover, this approach is substance-specific, and conducted only once and perhaps updated years later. Risk assessment as a tool for regulatory analysis has become time-consuming and litigious. A focus on accrued knowledge, not on regulation, would allow the analysis to be done quickly.

Emerging technologies may actually increase the cost-effectiveness and timeliness of risk assessment. For example, the emerging technologies of genomics and proteomics have been identified as breakthroughs in the evaluation of biological response and susceptibility to environmental exposures. The application of these technologies to toxicology is called toxicogenomics and has the potential benefit of linking exposures to underlying disease mechanisms and providing speedy and reliable screening of genes and their responses to exposures [Toraason et al. 2002; Iannaccone 2001]. For a prospective analysis, the traditional four-step risk assessment approach will be expanded with an additional prospective assessment step. In addition, the analysis incorporates ongoing iterations of knowledge input during the analysis and expedites the process with a focus on accrued knowledge rather than regulation.

Spiral Development

The research community needs an approach that continually updates the design of new and emerging technologies with current information as it is produced. An iterative risk assessment is one prospective framework to analyze new and emerging technologies, and spiral design is one such iterative research strategy. Developed by the U.S. Department of Defense, spiral design uses iteration throughout the analysis. It is based on current and accrued knowledge and is continually updated by research findings. Spiral development reduces risk by identifying problems early in the engineering process through an evolution that delivers knowledge in increments. (See Figure 4 for a conceptual depiction of the value of this approach.) This method allows for changes in the defined requirements as the technology matures towards its design concept, such as the need for improvements to abate or eliminate risks that are recognized in the beginning of the technological development [Farkas and Thurston 2003].

Figure 4. Risk profile comparison using an iterative rather than a linear process. Source: Software Engineering Institute.

Benefits Assessments

Benefits assessment is another approach to research. Federal agencies, for example, often conduct cost and benefit analyses of proposed regulations to estimate the dollar cost and the benefits of proposed regulations. Benefits analysis applies to emerging technology research through the concept of beneficence. Beneficence addresses a nondollar value, such as protecting research study volunteers from a qualitative perspective [Dunn and Chadwick 2002]. Benefit relates to the positive value to health and welfare. Emerging technologies also provide potential benefits to occupational safety and health by eliminating or reducing traditional workplace hazards, especially those hazards that have been persistent and pernicious.

Creating a Framework for Analysis

Risk assessment, spiral development, and benefits analysis enable researchers to create a framework for analysis. This framework includes a five element assessment of both the risks and benefits of emerging technologies. It focuses on prospective, not retrospective, analyses of emerging technologies.

The five steps would be synthesized from those of the National Research Council [NRC 1983; NRC 1993] and the Commission of European Communities [CEC 2000]. The steps are hazard or benefit identification, exposure or contact assessment, dose (contact) response assessment, risk and benefit characterization, and prospective assessment. The first four steps follow in order, but prospective assessment is woven within these steps as well as culminating at the end of the analysis. The following hypothetical case example will be used to illustrate knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in each step.

Case Study of a Fuel Cell

An inventor has designed an efficient, moderate cost, methanol-powered fuel cell that will generate enough electricity to meet the needs of individual households. The fuel cell produces electricity from a chemical reaction that is less polluting than conventional power plant combustion of fossil fuels. Both oxygen and hydrogen are needed for this chemical reaction. While oxygen can be supplied directly by forcing air through the fuel cell, hydrogen cannot be supplied directly because it is difficult to store and distribute in its pure form [Burns et al. 2002]. A solution to this problem is to use a device called a reformer to extract hydrogen from alcohol fuels, which are much easier to store.

The inventor’s new design incorporates novel materials in the fuel cell. A proprietary resin hardened fiberglass case provides a durable, lightweight enclosure, and a new, highly efficient thin film forms the electrolyte for the chemical reaction. Given these construction details and the intended home use of the fuel cell to generate electricity, a prospective analysis could include the following considerations:

Five Steps

1. Hazard or Benefit Identification

The first step in the analysis is hazard or benefit identification, which was addressed in the preceding chapter, Identifying Emerging Technologies.

2. Exposure or Contact Assessment

The second step uses current information to evaluate the probability of workers’ exposure to or contact with a new technology. Exposure pertains to biological, chemical, and physical (e.g., radiation, noise) agents. Contact pertains to mechanical systems, such as equipment used in manufacturing processes. Apart from information on the agents themselves (source, distribution, concentrations, characteristics, etc.), there is a knowledge gap on the probability of contamination or exposure of the population to the hazard. Table 1 shows examples of the questions that would be asked related to exposure or contact assessment regarding our case example. The analysis also needs to address potential environmental impact and exposure routes to other workers and in the community. It needs to assess potential hazards of the raw materials to include the intermediate byproducts and emissions during the manufacturing process.

3. Dose (Contact) Response Assessment

The third step consists of using current information to determine the nature and magnitude of the adverse or beneficial effects to worker safety and health that would be potentially associated with a new or emerging technology. It is at this stage that researchers would attempt to identify the effect of the technology on worker safety and health. Table 1 shows examples of the questions that would be asked related to the dose (contact) response assessment in our case example.

Table 1. Questions associated with prospective analysis of a hypothetical fuel cell technology.

1. Hazard or benefit identification
• What is known about the toxicity of the resin in the fiberglass material and the electrolyte film?
• Are there elements in the production processes, e.g., hand lamination of fuel cell cases, that could be a safety or health hazard to workers?
• Does life cycle analysis of the fuel cell assembly suggest hazards to factory, transportation, or waste disposal workers?
• Would the presence of methanol pose hazards to workers who install and service the fuel cell system?
• Would the transportation of methanol from distribution points to households require alternative delivery systems, given the flammability of methanol?
• Are there hazards to homeowners from the onsite storage of methanol?
• What are the knowledge gaps and research needs?
2. Exposure and contact assessment
• Do production processes of the fuel cell assembly expose workers to any toxicants?
• Do assembly processes bring workers into contact with biomechanical hazards?
• What are the potential sources of worker exposure to methanol?
3. Dose (contact) response assessment
• Should bio monitoring of workers be instituted for the presence of novel toxicants?
• Is research needed to assess the nature and time course of toxicant exposure?
4. Risk and benefit characterization
• After consideration of hazard and exposure data currently available, are there enough data to identify workplace safety and health hazards?
• Are particular groups of workers at increased safety and health risk and if so, which groups and how?
• Should an injury and illness surveillance system be considered for workers?
• Do benign or less hazardous production processes exist that would reduce worker safety and health risks?
• What benefits to workers will result from production, distribution, installation, and maintenance of home fuel cell power systems?
• Given potential sales of the fuel cell system, can economic costs and benefits be estimated with current data?
5. Prospective assessment
• Will waste management of the fuel cell cause long-term environmental problems?
• Would increased methanol production increase safety and health hazards to workers?


4. Risk and Benefit Characterization

The fourth step is to separate significant from trivial risks using information gathered in the preceding steps. This step characterizes a new technology with current information and corresponds to estimation and its uncertainties, probability, frequency, and severity of the known or potential adverse effects [CEC 2000]. The principle knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in this step are the uncertainties. When the available data are inadequate or inconclusive, a prudent approach to safety and health would be to assume the worst-case. This approach exaggerates the risk, but it assures that the risk will not be underestimated [CEC 2000]. It may also exaggerate the benefits for which gaps in knowledge may need to be filled before proceeding with a novel application of a technology. Table 1 shows possible questions related to risk and benefit characterization concerning our case example.

5. Prospective Assessment

This step extrapolates beyond what is known about a new technology and attempts to forecast future risks and benefits. It is an attempt to go beyond current information and data in order to answer "what if" and "how could" questions. It is an attempt to identify and prevent future problems in workplaces before they occur as well as the potential for emerging technologies to reduce or eliminate occupational safety and health problems. Prospective assessment can be embedded in the other four steps of the prospective analysis, but making it a separate element emphasizes the importance of prospective thinking and analysis. Table 1 shows examples of the questions related to prospective assessment of our case example. Prospective assessment is an adaptation of scenario analysis used in technology forecasting, but other forecasting techniques can be adapted as well [Day and Schoemaker 2000].

Achieving an Iterative Risk Assessment

Application of the prospective analysis framework should be conducted by risk/benefit analysts in an iterative fashion as a new technology progresses through its various stages of development. The prospective analysis process relies on the quality of data incorporated into any particular element of the framework, so improving data quality is important.

Critical Needs

Research needs will be identified while interactively analyzing new and emerging technology. The critical needs should be filled via research agendas for specific new technologies. The following issues are consistent with research needs to improve the prospective analysis of new and emerging technologies [Stayner et al. 2002]:

• Toxicological methods for mixtures of substances used in production processes;
• Health and exposure surveillance systems that contain worker safety and health data on injuries and illnesses during new technology development, production, distribution, and disposal;
• Improved toxicological methods to permit extrapolation of data between laboratory animals and humans, e.g., improved physiological-based pharmacokinetic modeling;
• Epidemiological investigations of workplace injuries and illness patterns as emerging technologies are deployed;
• Methods to measure exposure to or contact with novel materials;
• Methods to measure biological uptake of workplace materials and substances;
• Improvements in current technologies, e.g., exposure monitors, to assess exposure or contact with hazardous materials or equipment.

Analytical Technique

Researchers need tools for analyzing hazards and advantages to worker safety and health associated with emerging technologies. These tools include methods to test technologies at their development stage for potential hazards, which may lead to redesign. In addition, evaluation criteria are needed that deal not only with hazards but with the potential occupational safety and health advantages of emerging technology. Methods need to be more cost effective to reduce the expense of testing and analysis as well. Techniques are also needed to assure that both positive and negative consequences upstream and downstream of technology deployment, e.g., suppliers, are considered.

Cost and Benefit Analysis

Research is needed for developing new methods to analyze the costs and benefits of new technology. The conventional approach is to apply economic principles to calculate monetary estimates of benefits, but other approaches—perhaps qualitative approaches—are needed to value the benefits of emerging technologies. The analysis needs to extend beyond costs to benefits of the new technology to people and society.

An example of this need is to better understand the costs and benefits of light-emitting diodes (LED), which have the potential of moving from a niche market of LED screens and other low-light intensity applications to replacing the $40 billion incandescent and fluorescent lighting industry. The switch to an LED illumination economy could cut electricity consumption by 10% worldwide saving $100 billion in electricity costs per year and $50 billion in power plant construction costs.

The change could render the existing lighting industry obsolete along with its associated hazards. It would be replaced with new manufacturing technologies for LED lights with potential hazards such as the production of gallium dioxide as well as possible nanotechnology used as reflecting devices. However, there may be a more benign technology, organic light-emitting diode, which could be produced by a process like an ink-jet printer that may displace the need for expensive LED chip manufacturing facilities [Talbot 2003].

Potential concerns of LED use include the effect of ultraviolet light on health and the possibility of eye strain related to light intensity and frequency. Conversely, benefits may include better lighting where shadows and darkness conceal hazards on the job. The social benefits are potentially enormous, and there may be occupational health benefits, but costs may vary with the risk of different technology options. Finally, there is a need for new methods to analyze such costs and benefits. These methods should ensure that worker safety and health is protected while evaluating benefits of the new technology and anticipating downstream implications.