NOAA
CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON
August
8, 2006 � With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts
from NOAA are reiterating their prediction
for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's
relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of
the season has in store. (Click NOAA image for larger view of
updated 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"This
year's three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine
storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be
favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season—so
we are not off the hook by any means," said retired Navy Vice Adm.
Conrad C. Lautenbacher,
Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator.
News
Conference Audio (mp3), National Press Club, Washington, D.C. |
1)
David Miller, NOAA Public Affairs, introduces speakers. :51 |
4)
David Paulison opening statement. 1:58 |
2)
Conrad Lautenbacher opening statement. 4:26 |
5)
Max Mayfield opening statement. 4:08 |
3)
Gerry Bell opening statement. 4:20 |
6)
Q & A 23:15 |
News
Conference Photos |
Podcast |
For
the entire
2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is projecting a total
of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify to hurricanes,
including three or four becoming major hurricanes—rated at Category
3 or higher. This forecast is slightly lower than the outlook issued
in May, but remains above the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six
hurricanes and two major hurricanes. (Click NOAA image for larger
view of contrasting conditions in 2005 and 2006 for tropical storm development.
Please credit “NOAA.”)
According
to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, the
major climate factors expected to influence this year's activity are
the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind and atmospheric
pressure patterns favorable for hurricane formation, along with ongoing
warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. NOAA attributes these same
factors to the current active Atlantic hurricane era that began in 1995.
Bell
noted that conditions were ripe last year for early season storm development.
"La Niña-like convection in the central equatorial Pacific
during June and July of 2005 contributed to the development of numerous
early-season storms," he said. "Conditions this year reflect
a more typical active season, with peak activity expected during August-October."
(Click NOAA image for larger view of the expected conditions
through October 2006 for tropical storm development. Please credit “NOAA.”)
NOAA's
seasonal outlook, however, does not specify where and when tropical
storms and hurricanes could strike. "Science has not evolved enough
to accurately predict on seasonal timescales when and where these storms
will likely make landfall," said Bell. "Exactly when and where
landfall occurs is strongly controlled by the weather patterns in place
as the storms approach land. These weather patterns generally cannot
be predicted more than several days in advance."
"As
we approach the peak of the hurricane season, our message remains the
same, be informed and be prepared," said Max Mayfield, director
of the NOAA National Hurricane Center. "Preventing the loss of
life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities
shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is
enough to make it a bad season." (Click NOAA image for
larger view of the comparison of sea surface temperatures for July 2005
and July 2006. Please credit “NOAA.”)
In 2007,
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce
Department, celebrates 200 years of science and service to the nation.
From the establishment of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1807
by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Bureau
of Commercial Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage
is rooted in NOAA.
(Click
NOAA image for larger view of Tropical Storm Chris taken at 10:15 a.m.
EDT on Aug. 2, 2006. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
NOAA is
dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental
stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the
emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners and more than 60 countries
to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the
planet it observes.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA
2006 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
NOAA
National Hurricane Center
NOAA
National Weather Service
NOAA
Watch
NOAA
El Niño Conditions and Outlooks
NOAA
Hurricanes Page
Media
Contact:
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163 or Frank
Lepore, NOAA National Hurricane
Center, (305) 229-4404
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