Table 1. Pentanes Plus Demand, PPTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
PPTCPUS | 15 | 107 | 0.06466 | 0.000604 | 0.02458 | 0.6537 | 0.6084 | 2.174 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
PPTC_B0 | -0.011780 | 0.18891 | -0.06 | Constant Coefficient |
PPTC_T | 0.00072400 | 0.0001032 | 7.02 | TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation |
PPTC_MG | 0.091079 | 0.40909 | 0.22 | MGYLD, refinery yield of motor gasoline |
PPTC_E1 | -0.00484557 | 0.0091850 | -0.53 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E2 | -0.00539040 | 0.01075 | -0.50 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E3 | -0.021739 | 0.01194 | -1.82 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E4 | -0.022240 | 0.01184 | -1.88 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E5 | -0.018901 | 0.01187 | -1.59 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E6 | -0.028392 | 0.01189 | -2.39 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E7 | -0.021183 | 0.01186 | -1.79 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E8 | -0.033283 | 0.01189 | -2.80 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E9 | -0.00818949 | 0.01156 | -0.71 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E10 | 0.010337 | 0.01140 | 0.91 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
PPTC_E11 | 0.010442 | 0.0092996 | 1.12 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
PPTCPUS_L1 | 0.394107 | 0.09311 | 4.23 | 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1988 through February 1998 |
Table 2. Unfinished Oils Demand, UOTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
UOTCPUS | 13 | 157 | 0.75492 | 0.004808 | 0.06934 | 0.2482 | 0.1907 | 1.633 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
UOTC_B0 | 0.023072 | 0.03242 | 0.71 | Constant Coefficient |
UOTC_RI | -0.231545 | 0.03777 | -6.13 | UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils |
UOTC_E1 | -0.065863 | 0.02836 | -2.32 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E2 | -0.057775 | 0.02869 | -2.01 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E3 | -0.075822 | 0.02987 | -2.54 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E4 | -0.028274 | 0.02747 | -1.03 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E5 | -0.073721 | 0.02740 | -2.69 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E6 | -0.047014 | 0.02650 | -1.77 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E7 | -0.050763 | 0.02639 | -1.92 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E8 | -0.053405 | 0.02670 | -2.00 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E9 | -0.070775 | 0.02707 | -2.61 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E10 | -0.052298 | 0.02773 | -1.89 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
UOTC_E11 | -0.062579 | 0.02666 | -2.35 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998 |
Table 3. Petrochemical Feedstocks Demand, FETCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
FETCPUS | 15 | 155 | 0.29437 | 0.001899 | 0.04358 | 0.8312 | 0.8160 | 2.181 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
FETC_B0 | -0.256037 | 0.04803 | -5.33 | Constant Coefficient |
FETC_ZO | 0.846982 | 0.05253 | 16.12 | ZO28IUS, Industrial production index, chemicals and products |
FETC_PR | -0.079307 | 0.02843 | -2.79 | MGWHUUSX/PRTCUUS, motor gasoline price / propane price |
FETC_E1 | 0.021595 | 0.01390 | 1.55 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E2 | 0.021776 | 0.01620 | 1.34 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E3 | 0.057836 | 0.01730 | 3.34 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E4 | 0.061487 | 0.01831 | 3.36 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E5 | 0.066123 | 0.01969 | 3.36 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E6 | 0.085153 | 0.01987 | 4.28 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E7 | 0.087047 | 0.01945 | 4.48 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E8 | 0.060501 | 0.01914 | 3.16 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E9 | 0.028743 | 0.01840 | 1.56 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E10 | 0.011060 | 0.01711 | 0.65 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
FETC_E11 | 0.000067108 | 0.01433 | 0.00 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
FETCPUS_L1 | 0.375649 | 0.07437 | 5.05 | 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998 |
Table 4. Petroleum Coke Demand, PCTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
PCTCPUS | 13 | 157 | 0.21438 | 0.001366 | 0.03695 | 0.5963 | 0.5654 | 1.742 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
PCTC_B0 | 0.161843 | 0.01512 | 10.70 | Constant Coefficient |
PCTC_T | 0.00086592 | 0.00005783 | 14.97 | TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation |
PCTC_E1 | 0.00109146 | 0.01373 | 0.08 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E2 | -0.00576724 | 0.01373 | -0.42 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E3 | 0.00196531 | 0.01398 | 0.14 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E4 | -0.016747 | 0.01397 | -1.20 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E5 | 0.00393527 | 0.01397 | 0.28 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E6 | 0.00951965 | 0.01397 | 0.68 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E7 | -0.00198409 | 0.01397 | -0.14 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E8 | 0.00856979 | 0.01397 | 0.61 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E9 | -0.011581 | 0.01397 | -0.83 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E10 | 0.00359615 | 0.01397 | 0.26 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
PCTC_E11 | 0.00127646 | 0.01397 | 0.09 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998 |
Table 5. Asphalt and Road Oil Demand, ARTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
ARTCPUS | 16 | 178 | 0.21702 | 0.001219 | 0.03492 | 0.9744 | 0.9723 | 2.170 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
ARTC_B0 | -0.00867012 | 0.06003 | -0.14 | Constant Coefficient |
ARTC_ZO | 0.187669 | 0.10222 | 1.84 | ZOTOIUS, Industrial production index, total |
ARTC_ZW | -0.00357837 | 0.0013855 | -2.58 | ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day |
ARTC_T | 0.00021172 | 0.0002434 | 0.87 | TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation |
ARTC_E1 | -0.053776 | 0.01092 | -4.93 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E2 | -0.026117 | 0.01226 | -2.13 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E3 | 0.036659 | 0.01268 | 2.89 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E4 | 0.152673 | 0.01280 | 11.93 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E5 | 0.285583 | 0.01281 | 22.29 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E6 | 0.432001 | 0.01281 | 33.72 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E7 | 0.463133 | 0.01281 | 36.16 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E8 | 0.511412 | 0.01278 | 40.01 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E9 | 0.458879 | 0.01269 | 36.15 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E10 | 0.372640 | 0.01235 | 30.18 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
ARTC_E11 | 0.166473 | 0.01102 | 15.11 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
ARTCPUS_L1 | 0.269158 | 0.07228 | 3.72 | 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1982 through February 1998 |
Table 6. Still Gas Demand, SGTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
SGTCPUS | 16 | 178 | 0.03684 | 0.000207 | 0.01439 | 0.9359 | 0.9305 | 2.233 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
SGTC_B0 | -0.159690 | 0.09437 | -1.69 | Constant Coefficient |
SGTC_CO | 0.037214 | 0.0041367 | 9.00 | CORIPUS, refinery inputs of crude oil |
SGTC_MG | 0.526653 | 0.15314 | 3.44 | MGYLD, refinery yield of motor gasoline |
SGTC_D1 | 0.062047 | 0.01232 | 5.04 | D86ON = 1 if January 1986 or later, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E1 | -0.00293938 | 0.0038919 | -0.76 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E2 | 0.00462999 | 0.0052642 | 0.88 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E3 | 0.00298266 | 0.0059345 | 0.50 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E4 | 0.013992 | 0.0061365 | 2.28 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E5 | 0.017155 | 0.0065720 | 2.61 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E6 | 0.035119 | 0.0069391 | 5.06 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E7 | 0.037390 | 0.0068047 | 5.49 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E8 | 0.035717 | 0.0064182 | 5.56 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E9 | 0.020679 | 0.0059184 | 3.49 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E10 | -0.00588813 | 0.0050412 | -1.17 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
SGTC_E11 | -0.010263 | 0.0036676 | -2.80 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
SGTCPUS_L1 | 0.874361 | 0.04047 | 21.60 | 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1982 through February 1998 |
Table 7. Miscellaneous Petroleum Product Demand, MZTCPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
MZTCPUS | 15 | 155 | 0.14954 | 0.000965 | 0.03106 | 0.7748 | 0.7544 | 1.850 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
MZTC_B0 | 0.276821 | 0.03606 | 7.68 | Constant Coefficient |
MZTC_ZO | 0.564918 | 0.06320 | 8.94 | ZOMNIUS, Industrial production index, manufacturing |
MZTC_ZW | 0.00414721 | 0.0013727 | 3.02 | ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day |
MZTC_T | -0.00231446 | 0.0001654 | -14.00 | TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation |
MZTC_E1 | 0.026919 | 0.01163 | 2.32 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E2 | 0.024006 | 0.01162 | 2.07 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E3 | 0.00491528 | 0.01175 | 0.42 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E4 | -0.022942 | 0.01176 | -1.95 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E5 | -0.026365 | 0.01177 | -2.24 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E6 | -0.043464 | 0.01176 | -3.70 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E7 | -0.054744 | 0.01177 | -4.65 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E8 | -0.033605 | 0.01176 | -2.86 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E9 | -0.039326 | 0.01177 | -3.34 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E10 | -0.023796 | 0.01177 | -2.02 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
MZTC_E11 | -0.00311970 | 0.01185 | -0.26 | NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998 |
File last modified: June 6, 1998
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