Lesson 2 Enrichment
Factors Affecting Risk Judgment
Purpose:
This lesson will encourage students to think about risk in ways that they may not have done before...1 Each individual must weigh various factors and make judgments/assessments based upon their own perception about an activity or technology. There are no right or wrong answers.
Concepts:
- Research indicates that in thinking about risk, individuals consider identifiable factors such as controllability and outcome.
- Societal decisions are shaped by people’s values, perceptions, and analysis of facts.
Duration of Lesson:
One 50-minute class period
Objectives:
After participating in this lesson, students will be able to
- Rank activities/technologies by taking into consideration two different factors that have been specifically defined
- Plot and discuss the results of their rankings on the grid entitled “Location of Hazards.”
Skills:
Analyzing, critical thinking, discussing, graphing
Vocabulary:
Catastrophic, dread, equitable, factor, global
Materials:
Activity Sheets: “Factors
Affecting Risk Judgments”
Transparency: “Factors
for Locating Hazards”
Suggested Procedure:
- Research has been done to determine what factors people use in evaluating risk. Show students the transparency entitled “Factors
for Locating Hazards,” which identifies factors that influenced one particular research group in ranking items according to the level of risk.
- Discuss the transparency with the class. Have students look back at items in the ranking they did for the Lesson 2 activity entitled “Risk.”
Ask students which of the factors described on the transparency they may have considered, consciously or unconsciously, in ranking the items. Ask them to explain how these factors influenced their rankings.
- It might be helpful to remind students of the previous discussion on how they sometimes disagree with their parents because they and their parents consider different factors important in the decisionmaking or judgment process. Consciously or not, people consider whether a risk is controllable, voluntary, fatal, catastrophic, dreaded, or even known. These contribute to the risk assessment we give each of the technologies or activities.
- You may wish to discuss at this point that there is no right or wrong answer when you are asking individuals to assess risk. Their assessment is based upon their own judgment or perception of the technology or activity.
- In the exercise entitled “Risk,”
students were asked to rank 30 activities and technologies based upon their perceived risk, with 1 being the most risky and 30 being the least risky. In this exercise entitled “Factors
Affecting Risk Judgments,” the students will again be asked to rank activities and/or technologies. This time, however, they will rank each activity or technology considering two separate factors:
Factor 1: considers whether the technology or activity is controllable or uncontrollable, voluntary or involuntary, fatal or not fatal.
Factor 2: considers whether the effects are observable or not observable, whether effects are known or unknown, whether the effects are immediate or delayed..
-
Have students rank each activity or technology based upon a scale from 1 to 9 for each of the factors. The number each student assigns will represent his/her perception of the risk involved in the activity/technology being considered.
Perception of risk based upon a scale of 1 to 9 for Factor 1:
1
(low
risk) |
|
9
(high
risk) |
| |
|
|
| controllable |
or |
uncontrollable |
| voluntary |
or |
involuntary |
| not fatal |
or |
fatal |
Perception of risk based upon a scale of 1 to 9 for Factor 2:
1
(low
risk) |
|
9
(high
risk) |
| |
|
|
| observable |
or |
not observable |
| known |
or |
unknown |
| immediate |
or |
delayed |
Example: Scuba diving
In determining a value for Factor 1, a sample thought process might be as follows:
Scuba diving is a controllable activity. Assign a low value (perhaps 1-3). Scuba diving is a voluntary activity; thus, a low value (perhaps 1-3) is appropriate. However, scuba diving could prove fatal. The assigned number should be higher based upon each individual student’s assessment of that probability (perhaps between 3-6). The student will weigh these responses and decide on an overall ranking for Factor 1. Assume the student has determined that the final number value for Factor 1 should be a 4.
In determining a value for Factor 2:
Effects of scuba diving are observable. Assign a low value (1-3). Scuba diving has known effects. Assign a low value (1-3). The effects of scuba diving are immediate. The assigned number value should remain low (1-3). In this case, you have determined that the final number value for Factor 2 should be a 2.
- Have students enter the final number values for Factor 1 and Factor 2 on Part I of the worksheet entitled “Factors Affecting Risk Judgments.” Students should then rank the rest of the activities/ technologies listed on their worksheet in the same manner as the example above. You may wish to do one or two more, to be sure students understand how to assign the number values. It may be necessary to reassure students, once again, that there are no right or wrong answers in ranking this list. Also, it might help to advise students not to spend too much time “weighing” factors. In this particular exercise, a “gut” reaction is the best answer.
- Once students have completed their rankings, distribute the graph in Part II of the activity sheet entitled “Factors
Affecting Risk Judgments” and instruct students to plot the results of their worksheet rankings on this graph.
NOTE:It might be helpful to plot the first item as a class exercise in order to get students started. This also works well as a small group activity.
Example: Scuba diving
Using the results of the scuba diving example illustrated above, have students plot its location on their graph.
a) The number for Factor 1 should be located on the corresponding numbered line running left to right.
b) The number for Factor 2 should be located on the corresponding numbered line running up and down.
c) Place a dot on the point where the lines intersect and label it “scuba diving.”
- When students have finished with their grids, discuss the activity as a class.
- Show the transparency entitled “Factors
for Locating Hazards,” and discuss how others ranked specific items.
Sample discussion questions:
a) Where is radioactive waste located on “Factors
for Locating Hazards”? Why?
b) Are there any locations that surprise you? Would you locate
some differently? If so, which?
Where would you locate riding a roller coaster? Not using seatbelts? Using illegal drugs? Exposure to the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and possibly getting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)?
Teacher Evaluation of Student Performance:
Student completion of the activities entitled “Factors
Affecting Risk Judgments” and “Location of Hazards” should indicate level of comprehension.
Additional Enrichment:
Individual students or classes particularly interested in this activity may wish to rank and graph the following additional items:
War (conventional)
AIDS
Cheerleading
Nuclear weapons
Skateboarding
Amusement park rides
Team sports (e.g., football)
Sunbathing
Global climate change
Body piercing
Tatoos
Gasoline trucks
Dogs
Use of illegal drugs
Drunk driving
This would be appropriate either after the class ranked and graphed the items on the activity list or after discussing the transparency entitled “Factors
for Locating Hazards.”
1 The student activities and some teacher notes for the lessons on risk are based on information used by permission from “Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk,” by P. Slovic, B. Fischoff, and S. Lichtenstein, in Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough, published by Plenum Publishing Corporation, New York, 1980.
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