Lesson 2 Background Notes

Risk Perception and Judgment

The activity entitled “Risk” requires students to rank 30 specified activities according to their perception of an individual’s risk of dying in any given year from these activities. In the table below, these same 30 activities are ranked according to their actual contributions to the number of deaths in the United States as they have been determined by actuarial estimates. That information appears in the first column; the remaining columns record geometric mean information for other groups questioned in the 1976 research.

Fatality Estimates and Disaster Multipliers for 30 Activities and Technologies

Activity or Technology	Technical Fatality Estimates	League of Women Voters	Students
1. Smoking	150,000	6,900	2,400
2. Alcoholic beverages	100,000	12,000	2,600
3. Motor vehicles	50,000	28,000	10,500
4. Handguns	17,000	3,000	1,900
5. Electric Power	14,000	660	500
6. Motorcycles	3,000	1,600	1,600
7. Swimming	3,000	930	370
8. Surgery	2,800	2,500	900
9. X-rays	2,300	90	40
10. Railroads	1,950	190	210
11. General (private) aviation	1,300	550	650
12. Large construction	1,000	400	370
13. Bicycles	1,000	910	420
14. Hunting	800	380	410
15. Home appliances	200	200	240
16. Fire fighting	195	220	390
17. Police work	160	460	390
18. Contraceptives	150	180	120
19. Commercial aviation	130	280	650
20. Nuclear power^a	100	20	27
21. Mountain climbing	30	50	70
22. Power mowers	24	40	33
23. High school & college football	23	39	40
24. Skiing	18	55	72
25. Vaccinations	10	65	52
26. Food coloring	___ ^b	38	33
27. Food preservatives	___ ^b	61	63
28. Pesticides	___ ^b	140	84
29. Prescription antibiotics	___ ^b	160	290
30. Spray cans	___ ^b	56	38

^a Technical estimates for nuclear power were found to range between 16 and 600 annual fatalities. The geometric mean of these estimates was used here.

^b Estimates were unavailable.

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