Table 1. Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000
| Average Absolute Percent Error | Average Absolute Percent Error | Average Absolute Percent Error | Average Absolute Percent Error | Average Absolute Percent Error | |
| Variable | 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 | 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 | 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 | 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 | 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 |
| Consumption | |||||
| Total Energy Consumption | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Total Petroleum Consumption | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Total Natural Gas Consumption | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Total Coal Consumption | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Total Electricity Sales | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Production | |||||
| Crude Oil Production | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Natural Gas Production | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Coal Production | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Imports and Exports | |||||
| Net Petroleum Imports | 12.0 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| Net Natural Gas Imports | 20.0 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 15.9 |
| Net Coal Exports | 17.1 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 24.5 | 31.9 |
| Prices, Economic Growth, and Emissions | |||||
| World Oil Prices | 82.2 | 53.1 | 51.3 | 56.7 | 55.7 |
| Natural Gas Wellhead Prices | 120.4 | 76.0 | 72.1 | 70.2 | 68.2 |
| Coal Prices to Electric Utilities | 47.1 | 34.8 | 35.3 | 35.9 | 36.6 |
| Average Electricity Prices | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 11.8 |
| Gross Domestic Product | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| Carbon Dioxide Emissions | 1.8 | ||||
| AEO =
Annual Energy Outlook. Source: Tables 2 through 18 Notes: Since total electricity sales for 1999 are not available at the time of publication, the evaluation of electricity sales extends only through 1998 and the Annual Energy Outlook 1999. Projections of carbon dioxide emissions began in the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 and are first evaluated this year. |
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