International Energy Outlook 1999

The International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. The report is an extension of EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). U.S. projections appearing in IEO99 are consistent with those published in AEO99. IEO99 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO99 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1998.

Projections in IEO99 are displayed according to six basic country groupings (Figure 1). The industrialized region includes projections for nine individual countries—the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom—plus the subgroups Other Europe and Australasia (the latter defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia; Brazil is represented in Central and South America; and new to this year’s report, national-level projections are provided for South Korea (represented in developing Asia) and Turkey (represented in the Middle East). The nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are considered as a separate country grouping (EE/FSU).

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. The historical time frame begins with data from 1970 and extends to 1996, providing readers with a 26-year historical view of energy demand. The IEO99 projections cover a 24-year period.

High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The two alternative growth cases consider different levels of future growth in regional gross domestic product (GDP). The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with making international energy projections in general—are discussed in the first chapter of the report. The status of environmental issues, including global carbon emissions, is reviewed. Comparisons of the IEO99 projections with other available international energy forecasts are also included in the first chapter.

The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in the five fuel chapters, along with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. The third part of the report looks at energy consumption in the end-use sectors, beginning with a chapter on energy use for electricity generation. New to this year’s Outlook are chapters on energy use in the transportation sector and on environmental issues related to energy consumption.

Appendix A contains summary tables of the IEO99 reference case projections for world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, electricity consumption, carbon emissions, nuclear generating capacity, energy consumption measured in oil-equivalent units, and regional population growth. The reference case projections of total foreign energy consumption and consumption of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy were prepared using EIA’s World Energy Projection System (WEPS) model, as were projections of net electricity consumption and carbon emissions. Reference case projections of foreign oil consumption were prepared using the International Energy Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). In addition, the NEMS Coal Export Submodule (CES) was used to derive flows in international coal trade, presented in the coal chapter. Nuclear consumption projections for the reference case were derived from the International Nuclear Model, PC Version (PC-INM). Nuclear capacity projections for the reference case were based on analysts’ knowledge of the nuclear programs in different countries.

Appendixes B and C present projections for the high and low economic growth cases, respectively. Nuclear capacity projections for the high and low growth cases were based on analysts’ knowledge of nuclear programs. Nuclear consumption projections for both cases were derived from WEPS.

Appendix D contains summary tables of projections for world oil production capacity and oil production in the reference case and four alternative cases: high oil price, low oil price, high non-OPEC supply, and low non-OPEC supply. The projections were derived from WEPS and from the “DESTINY” International Energy Forecast Software. Appendix E presents regional forecasts of transportation energy use in the reference case, derived from the WEPS model. Appendix F describes the WEPS model, and Appendix G presents an evaluation of the performance of past IEO forecasts for the years 1990 and 1995.

The six basic country groupings used in this report (Figure 1) are defined as follows:

In addition, the following commonly used country groupings are referenced in this report:

Objectives of the IEO99 Projections

The projections in IEO99 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used. These projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. The projections are based on current U.S. and foreign government policies. Assuming current policies, even knowing that changes will occur, will naturally result in projections that differ from the final data.

Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The forecasts are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures, and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource availability cannot be known with any degree of certainty.