President Bush's Iraq Strategy: More of the Same
Tonight President Bush is expected to announce to the American people that he will keep at least 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq – same level as before he announced his “surge” strategy in January.
THIS POLICY SAME AS THE OLD POLICY
- Our military forces are “stretched thin” and the current level of troop commitment to Iraq is unsustainable. Given the strain on the military, the Bush Administration has little choice but to drawdown troops to at least the pre-surge level.
- “Senior officials have said that unless the President chooses to break a promise to limit deployments to 15 months and guarantee 12 months at home ..., the troop increase must end next spring.” [New York Times, 8/18/07]
- Bringing home five brigades will leave 130,000 troops in Iraq – roughly the same number as were deployed in February 2007 before the “surge.”
- All 38 of the Army’s available combat units are deployed, have or are just returning or are already scheduled to deploy to Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere. [Associated Press, 8/19/07]
- Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey, Jr. said in August that the “demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply…If the demands don’t go down over time, it will become increasingly difficult for us to provide the trained and ready forces” for other missions. [Associated Press, 8/19/07]
PATH TO 10-YEAR WAR
- Both Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and retired Army General John Abizaid said Wednesday that the U.S. will be involved in Iraq for years to come.
- Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky noted during her August trip to the region that Gen. David Petraeus referred to America’s long-term role in Iraq – “he was talking nine to 10 years.” [Washington Post, 8/26/07]
- In his testimony before the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees, U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker described our role in Iraq: “the process will not be quick, it will be uneven, punctuated by setbacks as well as achievements, and it will require substantial U.S. resolve and commitment.”[KRT, 9/11/07]
- The Independent Jones Commission reviewing the security forces in Iraq reported it was in the best interest of both the U.S. and Iraq if America’s “footprint” in the country were smaller. “Significant reductions, consolidations, and realignments would appear to be possible and prudent.” [9/6/07]
NO PROGRESS ON POLITICAL RECONCILIATION
- The President’s justification for the surge was that “reducing the violence in Baghdad will help make reconciliation possible.” [White House, 1/10/07] But by all accounts, including that of General Petraeus, the Iraqi government’s political progress is stalled.
- National Intelligence Estimate stated: “Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively.”
- The GAO concluded the Iraqi Government had failed to meet 15 of 18 political, security, and economic benchmarks. [9/07]
- The Congressional Research Service describes the Iraqi Government as “collapsing.” [CRS, 9/6/07]
- Just today, the New York Times reported that the “carefully constructed compromise on a draft law governing Iraq’s rich oil fields…appears to have collapsed.” [New York Times, 9/13/07]