Table
MG1. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook: Mid World Oil Price Case
(Energy
Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2004)
|
|
|
2003 |
|
|
2004 |
|
|
Change (%) |
|
|
|
Q2 |
Q3 |
Summer |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Summer |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Summer |
|
Prices (cents per
gallon) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WTI Crude Oil (Spot) a
|
69.0 |
71.9 |
70.5 |
89.0 |
87.7 |
88.4 |
29.1 |
21.9 |
25.4 |
|
Imported Crude Oil
Price b |
60.9 |
65.2 |
63.1 |
80.9 |
80.0 |
80.4 |
32.9 |
22.7 |
27.5 |
|
Wholesale Gasoline
Price c |
96.3 |
103.7 |
100.1 |
137.2 |
131.8 |
134.5 |
42.4 |
27.2 |
34.4 |
|
Retail Gasoline Price
d |
152.5 |
160.3 |
156.4 |
193.4 |
193.7 |
193.6 |
26.8 |
20.9 |
23.7 |
|
Stocks, Incl. Blending
Components (million barrels) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Beginning |
200 |
206 |
|
201 |
208 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ending |
206 |
197 |
|
208 |
197 |
|
|
|
|
|
Demand/Supply (million barrels
per day) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Demand |
9.045 |
9.194 |
9.120 |
9.269 |
9.304 |
9.287 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
|
Total Output e
|
8.194 |
8.317 |
8.256 |
8.422 |
8.373 |
8.397 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
|
Total Stock
Withdrawal (Incl. Blend. Components) |
-0.063 |
0.096 |
0.017 |
-0.072 |
0.121 |
0.025 |
|
|
|
|
Net Imports (Incl.
Blend. Components) |
0.913 |
0.780 |
0.847 |
0.919 |
0.811 |
0.864 |
0.6 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
|
Refinery Utilization
(percent) |
94.8 |
94.0 |
94.4 |
93.4 |
93.9 |
93.6 |
|
|
|
|
Market Indicators |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (billion
2000 dollars) |
10288 |
10493 |
10391 |
10840 |
10940 |
10890 |
5.4 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
|
Real Income (bill.
2000 dollars) |
7754 |
7883 |
7818 |
8017 |
8049 |
8033 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
|
Industrial Output
(index, 1997=1.0) |
110.0 |
111.1 |
110.5 |
115.7 |
116.9 |
116.3 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
|
Miles Traveled (mill.
miles per day) |
8162 |
8228 |
8195 |
8311 |
8361 |
8336 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
|
Average MPG (miles
per gallon) |
21.5 |
21.3 |
21.4 |
21.3 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
-0.1 |
aCost
of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
bCost of imported crude oil to U.S.
refiners.
cPrice of gasoline sold by refiners
to resellers.
dAverage pump price for regular
gasoline, all formulations, including taxes.
eRefinery output plus motor
gasoline field production, including fuel ethanol blended into gasoline
and new supply of oxygenates and other hydrocarbons for gasoline production but
excluding volumes related to net imports of or inventory changes in
motor gasoline blending components.
GDP
= gross domestic product.
Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA‑0109 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_monthly/psm.html); Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html); U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Forecast CONTROL0304.
For updates to the monthly forecast, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo.
For updates to this table, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/tabmg1.html.