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Short-Term Energy OutlookPetroleum Products Supply Model Variable Definitions |
Variable Name | Units | Definition | Source | |
History | Forecast | |||
ABRIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of aviation gasoline blend components | PSM | ROT |
COCQPUS | MMBD | Strategic Petroleum Reserve fill rate from foreign sources | PSM | SPO |
CODIPUS | MMBD | Gross inputs to crude distillation units | PSM | STF |
CODQPUS | MMBD | Strategic Petroleum Reserve fill rate from domestic sources | PSM | SPO |
COLOPUS | MMBD | Crude oil losses | PSM | ROT |
CONIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of crude oil (including SPR) | PSM | STF |
CONQPUS | MMBD | Strategic Petroleum Reserve net withdrawal rate | PSM | SPO |
CONXPUS | MMBD | Net imports of crude oil (excluding SPR) | PSM | STF |
COPRPUS | MMBD | Total U.S. crude oil production | PSM | OOG |
COQMPUS | MMBD | Strategic Petroleum Reserve Imports | PSM | SPO |
CORIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of crude oil | PSM | STF |
COSQPUS | MMB | Strategic Petroleum Reserve end-of-month inventory | PSM | STF |
COSXPUS | MMB | Stocks of crude oil | PSM | EXO |
COTCPUS | MMBD | Demand for unprocessed crude oil | PSM | STF |
COUNPUS | MMBD | Unaccounted crude oil | PSM | STF |
COWQPUS | MMBD | Strategic Petroleum Reserve withdrawal rate for domestic sale | PSM | SPO |
D2WHUUS | CPG | Wholesale price of no. 2 heating oil | PMM | STF |
D8912 | INT | = 1 if December 1989, 0 otherwise | | |
D9101ON | INT | = 1 if January 1991 or later, 0 otherwise | | |
D9301 | INT | = 1 if January 1993, 0 otherwise | | |
D94ON | INT | = 1 if January 1994 or later, 0 otherwise | | |
D98ON | INT | = 1 if January 1998 or later, 0 otherwise | | |
DFNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of distillate fuel oil | PSM | STF |
DFPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of distillate fuel oil | PSM | EXO |
DFPSPUSA | MMB | DFPSPUS seasonally adjusted | STF | STF |
DFROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of distillate fuel oil | PSM | STF |
DFYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of distillate fuel oil | STF | STF |
DUMYRPP | FRAC | Annual average of PPRIPUS / MGROPUS | STF | ROT |
DY9697 | INT | = 1 if February 1996 through August 1997, 0 otherwise | | |
EOFPPUS | MMBD | Field production of fuel ethanol | PSM | STF |
EONIPUS | MMBD | Fuel ethanol net imports | PSM | ROT |
EOPRPUS | MMB | Ethanol plant production | PSM | STF |
EOPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of fuel ethanol | PSM | ROT |
EOTCPUS | MMBD | Demand for fuel ethanol | PSM | STF |
JFNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of jet fuel | PSM | STF |
JFPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of jet fuel | PSM | EXO |
JFPSPUSA | MMBD | JFPSPUS seasonally adjusted | STF | STF |
JFROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of jet fuel | PSM | STF |
JFYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of jet fuel | STF | STF |
JKTCUUS | CPG | Price of kerosene-based jet fuel | PMM | STF |
LGFPPUS | MMBD | Field production of LPGs | PSM | STF |
LGNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of LPGs | PSM | STF |
LGPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of LPGs | PSM | EXO |
LGRIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of LPGs | PSM | STF |
LGROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of LPGs | PSM | STF |
LGYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of LPGs | STF | STF |
MBFPPUS | MMBD | Field production of motor gasoline blend components | PSM | STF |
MBPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of motor gasoline blend components | PSM | EXO |
MBRIPUS | MMB | Refinery inputs of motor gasoline blend components | PSM | STF |
MGFPPUS | MMBD | Field production of finished motor gasoline | PSM | STF |
MGNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of motor gasoline | PSM | STF |
MGPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of motor gasoline | PSM | EXO |
MGPSPUSA | MMB | MGPSPUS seasonally adjusted | STF | STF |
MGROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of motor gasoline | PSM | STF |
MGWHUUSX | CPG | Wholesale price of motor gasoline | PMM | STF |
MGYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of finished motor gasoline | STF | STF |
MTNIPUS | MMBD | MTBE net imports | PSM | EXO |
MTPRPUS | MMBD | Field production of MTBE | PSM | EXO |
MTPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of MTBE | PSM | STF |
MTTCPUS | MMBD | Demand for MTBE | PSM | STF |
NGMPPUS | BCFD | Production of wet marketed natural gas | NGM | STF |
NLPRPUS | MMBD | Natural gas plant liquid production | PSM | STF |
OHPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of other hydrocarbons/hydrogen/oxygenates | PSM | STF |
OHRIPUS | MMBD | Other hydrocarbons and alcohol field production | PSM | STF |
OPFRAC | FRAC | Oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand | PSM | EXO |
ORCAPUS | MMBD | U.S. operable atmospheric distillation calendar-day capacity | PSM | ROT |
ORUTCUS | FRAC | Refinery utilization rate, CODIPUS / ORCAPUS | PSM | STF |
OXFRAC | FRAC | Oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand | PSM | EXO |
OXRIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of oxygenates | PSM | STF |
OZTCPUS | MMBD | Total oxygenate demand | PSM | STF |
PAGLPUS | MMBD | Refinery processing gain | PSM | STF |
PANIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of petroleum products | PSM | STF |
PAPR48 | MMBD | Crude oil production, Lower 48 States | PSM | OOG |
PAPRAK | MMBD | Crude oil productionm Alaska | PSM | OOG |
PARIPUS | MMBD | Total refinery inputs | PSM | STF |
PAROPUS | MMBD | Total refinery output | PSM | STF |
PASXPUS | MMB | Total petroleum stocks (excluding SPR) | PSM | STF |
PATCPUS | MMBD | Total petroleum product demand | PSM | STF |
PPFPPUS | MMBD | Field production of pentanes plus | PSM | STF |
PPNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of pentanes plus | PSM | STF |
PPNLSUS | FRAC | Annual average PPFPPUS / NLPRPUS | PSM | ROT |
PPPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of pentanes plus | PSM | STF |
PPRIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of pentanes plus | PSM | STF |
PRPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of propane | PSM | STF |
PSNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of "other" petroleum products | PSM | STF |
PSPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of "other" petroleum products | PSM | EXO |
PSRIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of "other" petroleum oils | PSM | STF |
PSROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of "other" petroleum products | PSM | STF |
PSTCPUS | MMBD | Demand for "other" petroleum products | PSM | STF |
PSYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of "other" petroleum products | STF | STF |
RFNIPUS | MMBD | Net imports of residual fuel oil | PSM | STF |
RFPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of residual fuel oil | PSM | EXO |
RFPSPUSA | MMBD | RFPSPUS seasonally adjusted | STF | STF |
RFFRAC | FRAC | Reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand | PSM | EXO |
RFROPUS | MMBD | Refinery output of residual fuel oil | PSM | STF |
RFYLD | FRAC | Refinery yield of residual fuel oil | STF | STF |
RVPI | INT | = 1 if April - August, 1989 - 1991, 0 otherwise | | |
RVPIW | INT | = 1 if September 1989 - March 1992 and RVPI=0, 0 otherwise | | |
RVPII | INT | = 1 if April - August, 1992 - 1994, 0 otherwise | | |
RVPIIW | INT | = 1 if September 1992 - March 1995 and RVPII=0, 0 otherwise | | |
RVPIII | INT | = 1 if April - August, 1995 and later years, 0 otherwise | | |
RVPIIIW | INT | = 1 if September 1995 or later and RVPIII=0, 0 otherwise | | |
TIME | INT | = 1 to n, where n = number of observation | | |
UONIPUS | MMBD | Net Import of unfinished oils | PSM | STF |
UOPSPUS | MMB | Stocks of unfinished oils | PSM | EXO |
UORIPUS | MMBD | Refinery inputs of unfinished oils | PSM | STF |
WPCPIUS | INDX | Producer price index, all commodities | BLS | DRI |
ZWHDDUS | HDD | Heating degree-days, deviation from normal, United States | NOAA | ROT |
ZSAJQUS | INT | Number of days in month | | |
Units Key | ||||
BCFD | Billion cubic feet per day | |||
CPG | Cents per gallon | |||
FRAC | Fraction | |||
HDD | Heating-degree days | |||
INDX | Index | |||
INT | Positive Integer | |||
MMB | Million barrels | |||
MMBD | Million barrels per day | |||
Source Key | ||||
BLS | Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review | |||
DRI | DRI / McGraw-Hill Macroeconomic Forecast | |||
EXO | Exogenously specified forecast values | |||
NGM | Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130 | |||
NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monthly State, Regional and National Heating/Cooling Degree-Days Weighted by Population | |||
OOG | Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas | |||
PMM | Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380 | |||
PSM | Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109 | |||
ROT | "Rule of Thumb" - in the forecast, these variables are assumed to remain constant (e.g., equal to the last available historical data.) For heating degree-days, the forecasts assume normal weather (1965-1999 average with trend). | |||
SPO | U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve | |||
STF | Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System calculation |
Supply | Disposition | Ending Stocks | |||||||
Field Production |
Refinery Production |
Net Imports |
Unaccounted Crude Oil |
Crude Losses |
Refinery Inputs |
Product Supplied | |||
Crude Oil | |||||||||
Crude Oil | COPRPUS | | CONXPUS | COUNPUS | COLOPUS | CORIPUS | COTCPUS | COSXPUS | |
NGLs and LRGs | |||||||||
Pentanes Plus | PPFPPUS | | PPNIPUS | | | PPRIPUS | PPTCPUS | PPPSPUS | |
Liquefied Petroleum Gases | LGFPPUS | LGROPUS | LGNIPUS | | | LGRIPUS | LGTCPUS | LGPSPUS | |
Other Liquids | |||||||||
Unfinished Oils | | | UONIPUS | | | UORIPUS | UOTCPUS | UOPSPUS | |
Avgas Blend Comp. | | | PSNIPUS | | | ABRIPUS | ABTCPUS | PSPSPUS | |
Other HC/Oxygenates | OHRIPUS | | PSNIPUS | | | OXRIPUS | | OHPSPUS | |
Motor Gasoline Blend Components | MBFPPUS | | PSNIPUS | | | MBRIPUS | | MBPSPUS | |
Finished Products | |||||||||
Finished Motor Gasoline | MGFPPUS | MGROPUS | MGNIPUS | | | | MGTCPUS | MGPSPUS | |
Jet Fuel | | JFROPUS | JFNIPUS | | | | JFTCPUS | JFPSPUS | |
Distillate Fuel | | DFROPUS | DFNIPUS | | | | DFTCPUS | DFPSPUS | |
Residual Fuel | | RFROPUS | RFNIPUS | | | | RFTCPUS | RFPSPUS | |
Other Petroleum Products | | PSROPUS | PSNIPUS | | | | PSTCPUS | PSPSPUS | |
TOTALS | PAROPUS | PANIPUS | PARIPUS | PATCPUS | PASXPUS |
File last modified: August 1, 2000
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