Nuclear electric power worldwide continues to expand. According to the 1996 edition of the Energy Information Administration's Nuclear Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Report, the number of commercial nuclear units rose in 1995 to 437, as five units became operational and two were retired. Eighty-five nuclear units were under construction, 32 of them (38 percent) in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Total generating capacity increased about 1 percent to 344 net gigawatts-electric (GWe) and total generation rose 4.3 percent to 2,224 net terawatthours.

The report, formerly known as World Nuclear Outlook, estimates that world nuclear capacity by 2015 will lie between 333 GWe and 455 GWe (see graph), depending on the extent of construction and licensing delays worldwide and the rate of retirement of aging U.S. reactors.

U.S. nuclear units raised their capacity factor in 1995 for the second year in a row, to 78 percent. However, because of expected powerplant retirements, increasing competition in electric power generation, and the stalemate over disposal of high-level radioactive waste, total U.S. nuclear capacity (99 GWe in 1995) is unlikely to increase much. Capacity projections for 2015 range from 101 GWe down to 64 GWe.

The report also projects a temporary increase in the price of uranium, the basic component of reactor fuel. The average U.S. spot-market price, which had risen to $15.00 per pound by February 1996 (constant 1995 dollars), is projected to rise to $17.48 per pound in 1997. It is expected to fall in 1999 in response to increased supply, then gradually to rise after 2005, reaching $16.13 per pound by 2010.

Nuclear Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Report 1996 also discusses the issues surrounding the decommissioning of U.S. reactors (about 45 percent of which are scheduled for retirement within 20 years) and compares its projections with earlier Energy Information Administration projections and those of other organizations.

For more information about this report, contact Diane Jackson, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration, at 202-426-1176 or via internet e-mail at djackson@eia.doe.gov. To access the report via the internet (as a 1-mb PDF file), go to http://www.eia.doe.gov and click on "Nuclear." If you are having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov or call 202-586-2753. For general information about energy, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or via internet e-mail infoctr@eia.doe.gov.

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