|
|
|
Residential and commercial electricity consumption for miscellaneous services has grown significantly in recent years and currently accounts for more electricity use than any single major end-use service in either sector (including space heating, space cooling, water heating, and lighting). In the residential sector, a proliferation of consumer electronics and information technology equipment has driven much of the growth. In the commercial sector, telecommunications and network equipment and new advances in medical imaging have contributed to recent growth in miscellaneous electricity use [102]. Until recently, energy consumption for most miscellaneous electricity uses has not been well quantified. A September 2006 report prepared for EIA by TIAX LLC [103] provides much-needed information about many miscellaneous electricity services. For the report, TIAX developed estimates of current and future electricity consumption for the 10 largest miscellaneous electricity loads in the residential sector and for 10 key contributors to miscellaneous electricity use in the commercial sector, based on current usage and technology trends. The information has allowed EIA to disaggregate components of the “other” electricity consumption category and refine the AEO2007 projections for the buildings sector. Based on the conclusions of the TIAX study, which allows a finer breakout of smaller electric uses in the buildings sector, the projected growth rate for miscellaneous electricity use in the AEO2007 reference case is lower than was projected in the AEO2006 reference case. Residential Sector The 10 miscellaneous electricity uses evaluated by TIAX account for about 40 percent of the comparable miscellaneous electricity use in 2005 (11 percent of total residential electricity use). Televisions (TVs), which were accounted for separately in previous AEOs, account for one-third of residential miscellaneous electricity use in 2005 in the TIAX study, and TVs and set-top boxes are projected to account for 80 percent of the growth in electricity use for the 10 miscellaneous loads from 2005 to 2030. It should be noted that considerable uncertainty surrounds the projections, in that technological change and innovation, as well as consumer preferences, can lead to rapid changes in the market for these products. Table 5 summarizes electricity use in 2005, 2015, and 2030 for the 10 residential loads included in the study.
As shown in Table 5, electricity use for TVs and set-top boxes nearly doubles from 2005 to 2030. This projection is based on factors such as number of TVs per house, screen size, technology type, satellite/cable penetration, and the transition away from analog to digital broadcasts. For most TVs in the current stock, the transition to digital broadcasts will require a set-top box to decode the signal, as reflected in the sharp increase of electricity use for set-top boxes from 2005 to 2015. After 2015, when newer TVs are expected to have the decoder built in, the rate of increase slows. Continued penetration of satellite and cable systems, as well as multi-function digital video recorders (DVRs) contributes to the increase in set-top boxes over the projection period. There are many uncertainties that could affect future growth in electricity use for TVs. Although it is certain that screen sizes have increased over time in the past, and likely that they will continue to increase, it is far less certain which technology will come to dominate the market. Plasma, liquid crystal display, and digital light processing screen technologies all have footholds in the current market for TVs, and they vary in electricity use. Moreover, future technologies, such as carbon nanotube displays, may use significantly less power than today’s technologies, and TVs with point-of-deployment slots could make set-top boxes obsolete. The projections in Table 5 assume that all TVs will meet the current ENERGY STAR requirements for off power (less than 1 watt); however, overall electricity use for TVs is largely insensitive to that assumption, because hours of use and screen size predominantly determine their electricity use. As shown in Table 6, bigger TVs with high-definition screens that require more energy per unit are projected to double in market share from 2005 to 2015, resulting in a 24-percent increase in active power draw per set, on average. The eight other devices listed in Table 5 contribute little (about 20 percent) to the projected growth in total miscellaneous electricity use for the residential sector. Their functions are diverse, ranging from common appliances (microwave ovens) to less common products (spas). Their annual electricity consumption also varies widely, from 74 kilowatthours per year for security systems to more than 2,500 kilowatthours per year for spas. Of the eight other devices, electricity use for ceiling fans (not including attached lights) is projected to increase the most through 2030, as newly constructed homes tend to have more ceiling fans installed, and more new homes are built in warmer areas where ceiling fans are used more intensively. Microwave ovens show a slight increase in household saturation, from 96 percent in 2005 to 98 percent in 2030, but energy use will grow faster as the number of households increases. For spas, electricity use per unit is expected to decrease as efficiency standards tighten [104], but more units are expected to be installed, leading to an overall increase in electricity consumption. Hand-held rechargeable devices (mobile phones, cordless phones, hand-held power tools, and others) also are projected to use less electricity per unit, again, in response to tighter efficiency standards. Commercial Sector The 10 commercial uses evaluated in the TIAX study currently account for 137 billion kilowatthours of electricity demand (about 470 trillion Btu), or approximately 37 percent of miscellaneous electricity use in the commercial sector (Table 7). Two well-established areas of commercial electricity use, distribution transformers used to decrease the voltage of electricity received from suppliers to usable levels and water services (purification, distribution, and wastewater treatment) account for a large share of the electricity consumption evaluated in the study. Although those two uses are expected to continue accounting for a significant amount of commercial electricity use, neither shows rapid growth in the projections. EPACT2005 includes efficiency standards to limit electricity losses from low-voltage dry-type distribution transformers—the type most prevalent in the commercial sector—which should limit their contribution to growth in commercial electricity use. Trends in water conservation and wastewater reuse are expected to offset the increasing energy intensity of treatment, resulting in total projected growth in electricity use for public water services of more than 15 percent from 2005 to 2030—slightly less than the growth implied by the 0.8-percent average annual rate of population growth projected in the AEO2007 reference case. Growth rates in electricity use for the remaining commercial uses included in the TIAX study are governed by the specific market segments serviced and by technology advances. The electricity requirements for medical imaging equipment—magnetic resonance imaging systems (MRIs), computed tomography (CT) scanners, and fixed-location x-ray machines—are expected to grow more quickly than consumption for the other commercial services studied. MRIs and CT scanners are relatively new technologies. They are expected to continue penetrating the healthcare arena, and the technology is expected to advance, leading to future increases in their total electricity use. Although x-ray machines have been in use for many years, the move toward digital x-ray systems and steady growth in the healthcare sector are expected to increase their electricity use as well. Electricity use for non-road electric vehicles, including lift trucks, forklifts, golf carts, and floor burnishers, is projected to grow slightly faster than commercial floorspace in the AEO2007 reference case, led by growing sales of electric golf carts. Commercial-style coffee makers are expected to grow with the food service and office segments, reflecting the two major markets for commercial coffee services. Electricity consumption for vertical transport (elevators and escalators) is expected to follow growth in the commercial sector, tempered by the expectation that increasing numbers of elevators will have the capability to enter standby mode, turning off lights and ventilation, for up to 12 hours per night.
102. Electricity demand for commercial office equipment is an end-use category separate from miscellaneous consumption. 103. TIAX LLC, Commercial and Residential Sector Miscellaneous Electricity Consumption: Y2005 and Projections to 2030 , EIA contract report (September 2006). 104. The decline in electricity use per unit is driven by the new California standard that requires less electricity use while in standby mode, which accounts for more than 99 percent of hours of use over the course of a year. See California Energy Commission, 2006 Appliance Efficiency Regulations, CEC-400-2006-002 (Sacramento, CA, January 2006).
Contact: Erin Boedecker |
