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Proposed Revisions to Light Truck Fuel Economy Standard |
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In August 2005, NHTSA published proposed reforms to the structure of CAFE standards for light trucks and increases in light truck CAFE standards for model years 2008 through 2011 [8]. Under the proposed new structure, NHTSA would establish minimum fuel economy levels for six size categories defined by the vehicle footprint (wheelbase multiplied by track width), as summarized in Table 3. For model years 2008 through 2010, the new CAFE standards would provide manufacturers the option of complying with either the standards defined for each individual footprint category or a proposed average light truck fleet standard of 22.5 miles per gallon in 2008, 23.1 miles per gallon in 2009, and 23.5 miles per gallon in 2010. All light truck manufacturers would be required to meet an overall standard based on sales within each individual footprint category after model year 2010.
In determining the proposed light truck fuel economy standards, NHTSA addressed concerns related to energy conservation, technology feasibility and economic practicability, other regulations on fuel economy, and safety. In the evaluation of technology and economic practicability, NHTSA used gasoline price projections from the AEO2005 reference case, which projected that gasoline prices would range from $1.54 to $1.61 per gallon (2004 dollars) over the 2004-2025 forecast period. For the same period, the AEO2006 reference case projects a range of $1.95 to $2.26 per gallon (2004 dollars). NHTSA, which will likely receive and address comments related to many issues, specifically asked for comments on the appropriate gasoline price projection to use in defining the final rule. Use of the AEO2006 reference case gasoline prices in the final rule could impact the final CAFE standards. For example, using higher gasoline prices in technology evaluations could lead to a finding that additional technologies are economically practical, with corresponding changes in fuel economy standards for some footprint categories. Because the new light truck fuel economy standards have not been finalized, they are not included in the AEO2006 reference case. An alternative case was developed to examine the potential energy impacts of the proposed standards. Because NEMS does not currently represent the footprint-based standards included in NHTSA’s recent proposal, the alternative case assumes that manufacturers will adhere to the proposed increases in light truck fleet standards. For model year 2011, the alternative case applies a fleet-wide standard of 24 miles per gallon, based loosely on the change between 2010 and 2011 in the proposed footprint-based standards. Because no further changes in fuel economy standards beyond 2011 are assumed, the projected trends in light truck fuel economy after 2011 reflect projected technology adoption and market forces. New light truck fuel economy in the alternative case (Table 4) is projected to be 6 percent higher than the reference case projection in 2011 (24.9 miles per gallon, compared with 23.4 miles per gallon in the reference case). Consistent with the reference case projections, light truck fuel economy continues to improve after 2011 in the alternative case, to 27.4 miles per gallon in 2030, 4 percent higher than the reference case projection of 26.4 miles per gallon. The higher CAFE standards lead to higher prices for light trucks, resulting from increased use of lightweight materials, more complex valve trains, and advanced transmissions. In the alternative case, the average price of a new light truck is projected to be 1.2 percent ($350) higher than in the reference case in 2011 and 0.5 percent ($170) higher in 2030. That increase is at least partially offset, however, by the expected reduction in fuel costs that would result from the increase in average fuel efficiency. Total projected energy use by light-duty vehicles, including both cars and light trucks, in the alternative case is projected to be 0.7 percent (0.13 quadrillion Btu) lower than the reference case projection in 2011 and 1.8 percent (0.44 quadrillion Btu) lower in 2030. Cumulative energy use by light-duty vehicles from 2004 to 2030 is almost 7 quadrillion Btu lower in the alternative case than projected in the reference case.
[8] National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Average Fuel Economy Standards for Light Trucks Model Years 2008-2011, Notice of Proposed Rule-making, 49 CFR Parts 523, 533, and 537, Docket No. 2005-22223, RIN 2127-AJ61 (Washington, DC, August 2005), web site www.nhtsa.dot.gov/cars/rules/rulings/ LightTrucksRuling-2008-2001/ProposedRulemaking/ CAFE-LigthTrucks-PR-24Aug05.pdf.
Contact: John Maples |
