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U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative |
On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administration’s Global Climate Change Initiative [80]. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. GHG intensity—defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output—by 18 percent over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.
AEO2006 projects energy-related CO2 emissions, which represented approximately 83 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions in 2002. Projections for the other GHGs are derived from an EPA “no-measures” case, a recent update to the “business-as-usual” case cited in the White House Greenhouse Gas Policy Book Addendum [81] released with the Climate Change Initiative. The projections from the Policy Book were based on several EPA-sponsored studies conducted in preparation for the U.S. Department of State’s Climate Action Report 2002 [82]. The no-measures case was developed by EPA in preparation for a planned 2006 “National Communication” to the United Nations in which a “with-measures” policy case is to be published [83]. Table 15 combines the AEO2006 reference case projections for energy-related CO2 emissions with the projections for other GHGs. According to the combined emissions projections in Table 15, the GHG intensity of the U.S. economy is expected to decline by 17 percent between 2002 and 2012, and by 28 percent between 2002 and 2020 in the reference case. The Administration’s goal of reducing GHG intensity by 18 percent by 2012 would require emissions reductions of about 116 million metric tons CO2 equivalent from the projected levels in the reference case. Although AEO2006 does not include cases that specifically address alternative assumptions about GHG intensity, the integrated high technology case does give some indication of the feasibility of meeting the 18-percent intensity reduction target. In the integrated high technology case, which combines the high technology cases for the residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric power sectors, CO2 emissions in 2012 are projected to be 166 million metric tons less than the reference case projection. As a result, U.S. GHG intensity would fall by 18.6 percent from 2002 to 2012, more than enough to meet the Administration’s goal of 18 percent (Figure 23).
Contact: Daniel Skelly |
