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Laurence S. Kalkstein¹ and J. Scott Greene²

¹Center for Climatic Research, Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 USA; ²Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73109 USA

Abstract
A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict. Key words: acclimatization, air mass, climate and human mortality, climate change, human health, synoptic climatology. Environ Health Perspect 105:84-93 (1997)

Address correspondence to L.S. Kalkstein, Center for Climatic Research, Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Pearson Hall, Newark, DE 19716 USA.

This research was primarily funded by the Climate and Policy Assessment Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, on Cooperative Agreement numbers CR-817693 and CR-824404. The authors would like to thank the EPA for its continued support.

Received 28 May 1996 ; accepted 16 September 1996.