Keeping Afloat: A Strategy for Small Island Nations Looking for some adventure? Then how about a trip to Fiji,
the Caribbean, or the Seychelles? With their palm trees, lazy
beaches, and clear turquoise waters, few places have more appeal
than the world’s island nations. Roughly 40 such countries,
some sovereign and others not, lie scattered across the planet,
ranging in size from Papua New Guinea, with a land area of
452,860 square kilometers and more than 5 million citizens,
to Tokelau, a tiny, self-administering territory of New Zealand
with a land mass measuring just 10 square kilometers and a
population of 1,400.
Perhaps surprisingly, there is no clear official definition
for what constitutes an island nation. The Alliance of Small
Island States (AOSIS), an ad hoc lobbying and negotiation organization
that coordinates the most prominent grouping, refers to its
45 members as “small island developing states,” or
SIDS. The criteria that define SIDS are somewhat ambiguous,
however. AOSIS members include Belize, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana,
and Suriname, which are all coastal--although not technically
island--nations. The upper population limit for SIDS, which
is 10 million, also appears flexible: AOSIS counts Cuba as
a member, despite the country’s population of 11.3 million.
AOSIS has even received an application from Madagascar, despite
that country’s population of 18 million.
Island nations may be beautiful, but their isolation makes
them vulnerable to outside forces that increasingly threaten
their survival. Rising sea levels linked to global warming
could submerge some altogether. Tuvalu, a West Pacific nation
whose peak height rises just 5 meters over sea level, could
be uninhabitable within 50 years, some experts say. A similar
fate could also doom the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati,
and Tokelau.
Meanwhile, for reasons not entirely understood, hurricane
activity in the tropics appears to be increasing. Hurricane
Ivan--the sixth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record--blasted
the Caribbean with 160-mile-per-hour winds in 2004, devastating
most of Grenada’s housing and virtually destroying its
economy within just a few hours. The 2005 Caribbean hurricane
season made headlines early on with Dennis in July. This earliest
powerful hurricane ever recorded in the region caused an estimated
US$5-9 billion in damage.
Most island nations struggle daily with depleted fish stocks,
inadequate waste management, ship pollution, degraded reefs,
dwindling freshwater supplies, and poverty. In general, the
farther an island nation is from global markets, the poorer
it is. Distance makes everything more expensive; oil prices
in particular tend to be extremely high owing to transportation
costs. The more remote islands also tend to lack communications
infrastructure, access to information technology, and adequate
numbers of trained professionals, including engineers, doctors,
and teachers. These technical limitations slow economic development
and exacerbate environmental problems caused by poor management
of island resources.
Island nations are also uniquely threatened by price shocks
from economic globalization. Most island nations depend heavily
on tourism, foreign aid, and a limited range of exports like
sugar and bananas. Declines in any of these sectors can decimate
revenue streams, exacerbating the poverty that already plagues
these countries. In St. Lucia, export revenue from bananas
plunged from US$46 million in 1996 to US$22 million in 2002,
largely because cheaper bananas from Central America flooded
world markets during that same period. According to Kishan
Kumarsingh, technical coordinator at the Environmental Management
Authority in Trinidad and Tobago, climate change can also alter
growing conditions, affecting agricultural productivity.
Price shocks emanate in part from the World Trade Organization’s
(WTO) trade liberalization policies, which are dismantling
arrangements that traditionally have guaranteed markets for
island exports. A preferential trade link between the European
Union and African, Caribbean, and Pacific Island exporters
known as the EU-ACP Agreement is being phased out by the WTO
after 30 years in existence as part of a deliberate effort
coordinated by the organization to reduce protectionism and
open economies to more globalized trade. Its elimination already
hurts Caribbean banana exports, as indicated by St. Lucia’s
experience. Sugar exports from Pacific countries could suffer
similar fates, says François Coutu, a spokesperson in
the United Nations (UN) Department of Public Information.
With environmental and economic problems mounting, island
nations are turning increasingly to donor countries for aid.
But these sources, too, are dwindling: donor nations’ development
aid to island nations decreased from a high of US$2.3 billion
in 1995 to US$1.7 billion in 2005, according to the UN Small
Island Development Unit.
The Rising Sea
Of all the threats facing island nations, the rise in sea
level could be the most catastrophic. Traditionally, sea level
was measured with tide gauges including simple graduated measuring
staffs and more complex devices that produce continuous graphic
descriptions of tide height over time. But in the early 1990s,
satellites began generating more comprehensive profiles of
global sea level. Thanks to these orbiting systems, scientists
now know that the average global rate of sea level rise has
increased 50% during the last 12 years--up to 3 millimeters
per year from a 50-year annual average of 2 millimeters, according
to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Experts attribute rising sea level to global warming and its
influence on two key parameters: ocean warming (which causes
water to expand) and glacial melting (which is discharging
increasing amounts of freshwater directly into the sea).
According to Kevin Trenberth, who heads the Climate Analysis
Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the
global mean sea surface temperature has risen by roughly 1.5°F
since the beginning of the twentieth century. Of that increase,
roughly half has occurred since 1970, reflecting the growing
effects of global warming from human-induced climate change,
he says. The increase in sea surface temperature causes oceans
to expand. This thermal expansion, Trenberth says, produces
a roughly 1.6-millimeter global rise in sea level every year.
Melting glaciers account for most of the residual rise in
sea level, Trenberth says. In a worst-case scenario, enormous
ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica could melt and
raise sea levels by up to 1 meter, suggests Waleed Abdalati,
who heads the Cryospheric Sciences Branch at NASA’s Goddard
Space Flight Center. Scientists emphasize there currently aren’t
enough data to predict when--or even whether--such a scenario
might occur. But if it does, many island nations and coastal
communities would be inundated: “It’s estimated
that more than a hundred million lives are potentially impacted
by a one-meter increase in sea level,” Abdalati says.
In the meantime, even the comparatively small increases in
sea level seen today can produce large effects, particularly
when superimposed on high tides and storm surges, says Laury
Miller, who heads NASA’s Satellite Altimetry Laboratory.
Miller adds that as a first impact, rising seas contaminate
freshwater resources.
This isn’t news to Enele Sosene Sopoaga, AOSIS vice
chair and Tuvalu’s UN ambassador. While his country’s
water storage capacity has improved, Sopoaga says, the freshwater
tables just beneath Tuvalu’s atolls have become brackish
and poisonous to root crops including pulaka, a yam-like vegetable
that was once a dietary staple. Sea level rise is a constant
presence in Tuvalu, he says. Waves crashing just a meter from
the main road bring rocks and debris, slowing traffic and endangering
lives. And many homes experience flooding whenever tides are
high. “Our island is sinking together with our hearts,” he
says.
Tuvalu is also battered by tropical storms of increasing
ferocity, Sopoaga says, a view supported by new research from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicating that hurricanes
in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have become 50% stronger
during the last 50 years. These findings, produced by professor
Kerry Emanuel of the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and
Planetary Sciences, appear in the 31 July 2005 online edition
of Nature.
According to Trenberth, the main factor driving storm intensity
is sea surface temperature. Higher sea surface temperatures
raise the water vapor retention capacity of the lower atmosphere,
which increases rainfall during hurricanes and other tropical
storms. Because sea surface temperatures are rising with global
warming, more intense weather events may be a direct consequence
of human activity, Trenberth says.
Citing their vulnerability to climate change, island nations
have long championed the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks mandated
reductions in the greenhouse gases linked to global warming.
But Tom Wigley, a senior scientists at the National Center
for Atmospheric Research, says the greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere now will likely linger for up to 100 years. Even
if future emissions were limited to current levels, greenhouse
gases would continue to rise and pose ongoing threats, he says.
This is due to the lag-time response of the atmospheric and
climate system--the climate does not react immediately or in
the short term to greenhouse gas emissions, but rather over
long periods.
Adapting to Climate Change
Small island nations faced with the consequences of climate
change must somehow adapt to it. Only a few options are available,
however, and none of them are attractive. According to Kumarsingh,
islanders can either abandon threatened areas, retreat to higher
ground, or build walls to hold back the sea. The Maldivian
capital of Male is partially ringed by a system of protective
walls that was built at a cost of US$4,000 per meter, financed
largely by Japan. These walls saved the capital from the great
tsunami that struck the Indian Ocean in December 2004. But
seawalls are not always so effective; according to Sopoaga,
most built in Tuvalu are damaged and in urgent need of repair.
Kumarsingh says coastal retreat could be highly challenging. “It’s
not so simple,” he explains. “You have to relocate
communities, amenities, and services, which is expensive. Island
cultures are rooted in coastal living, so relocation has many
socioeconomic impacts.”
Further, he adds, some islands, such as the Maldives, do
not have higher ground to which to retreat. The size of many
islands also limits how far people can go to escape: “When
you retreat from one coast, chances are you may end up on the
other coast. So where do you go?”
Perhaps most importantly, these strategies address only one
aspect--sea level rise--of the consequences of global warming.
Among the other direct and indirect consequences are changes
in agriculture and food production, biodiversity loss, damage
to coastal coral reefs (which are sensitive to warm sea temperatures
and which act as natural coastal defense structures by dampening
wave energy), saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifers (making
potable water production more expensive), and increases in
certain disease vectors due to increased humidity.
The Mauritius Strategy
Today, island nations are trying to promote global awareness
of their plight. Earlier this year, the world spotlight shone
on island nations during a large international meeting held
in Port Louis, Mauritius. The January meeting, sponsored by
the UN, brought together 2,000 delegates and numerous heads
of state to review progress on a 10-year action plan for island
nations called the Barbados Programme of Action (BPOA). Stakeholders
acknowledged that the BPOA--which since 1994 has sought to
improve environmental management and economic development in
island nations--has fallen far short of its goals. One UN official
attributed the BPOA’s failures in part to bureaucratic
inertia. “The UN never set up an appropriately sized
implementation office, and we had problems with no new funds
being pledged [by donor countries],” the official explains. “Furthermore,
the [island nations] never made the plan a cornerstone of their
aid dealings.”
Hoping to redress these shortcomings, delegates pushed forward
by drafting a new plan called the Mauritius Strategy. “The
Mauritius Strategy has clear recommendations that if taken
seriously will make up for the deficiencies of the last ten
years,” says Anwarul K. Chowdhury, under-secretary-general
for the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries,
Landlocked Developing Countries, and Small Island Developing
States (UN-OHRLLS). The 30-page strategy lays out a detailed
agenda focused on issues such as climate change, sea level
rise, natural disasters, waste management, water resources,
energy, technology, sustainable development, and tourism.
Stakeholders hope the renewed momentum will fuel concrete
progress. According to Om Pradhan, chief of the UN-OHRLLS Policy
Development and Coordination Monitoring and Reporting Unit,
international delegates appeared receptive to the view that
island nations face unique challenges. The European Union in
particular, he says, was forthcoming in its support for the
islands--which is critical because European countries provide
aid and comprise key markets for island exports.
Responsibility for the strategy’s implementation falls
to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA)
and the UN-OHRLLS, among other divisions. As such, the UN will
help island nations prepare to claim that they deserve special
attention from the international community, says Diane Quarless,
who heads the UN-DESA Small Island Developing States Unit.
But these claims could be met with some resistance, she admits.
This is in part because some island nations are relatively
well off: Singapore and Aruba, for instance, each boast per-capita
incomes of US$28,000, values that in Quarless’s opinion,
are skewed high by the wealth of a minority. “The international
community looks at per-capita income, and says, ‘These
guys are rich, and they live in paradise. Why should we give
development assistance to them?’” Quarless says. “But
we say that it’s not all paradise in the island nations.
Economic and environmental vulnerability are universal across
the board--even the richer countries could be wiped out by
a single natural disaster. The international community puts
an inordinate weight on income; we want them to emphasize environmental
vulnerability when they decide if island nations are worthy
of preferential treatment.”
A key objective, Quarless says, is to convince the UN General
Assembly that environmental vulnerability--not income--should
determine island eligibility for developing country assistance.
As it stands now, the UN selects nations for its list of Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) on the basis of income. LDCs are
eligible for special concessions, such as access to duty-free
export markets and high levels of developmental aid. Several
island nations--including the Maldives, Cape Verde, and Samoa--may
soon be “graduated” from this list because of their
rising per-capita income. Quarless argues that, because they
face extraordinary environmental challenges, these countries
should be allowed to retain their LDC status. “A country
like Maldives, which is quite literally under threat of disappearance,
should not have to face the challenge of fending for itself,” she
says.
Additional UN advocacy on behalf of island nations now targets
institutions including the World Bank and the WTO, Pradhan
adds. These institutions don’t currently accept “islandness” as
a special category, he says. “This is something we’re
trying to change in view of [island nations’] greater
vulnerabilities to social, economic, and environmental shocks,” he
says.
Inasmuch as island nations need global support, however,
they must also promote their own sustainable development, making
the most productive use of island resources. Stakeholders in
Fiji, for instance, have recently developed automotive fuels
using coconut oil.
Lelei LeLaulu, president of Counterpart International, a
U.S.-based nonprofit company that promotes sustainable development
projects around the world, argues that island nations need
to emphasize sustainable tourism as a cornerstone of development.
With this approach, island nations recognize that resource
attractions--for instance, coral reefs--can’t be protected
in isolation from their larger ecosystems. Conservation should
address large natural areas rather than small pockets with
tourist appeal, such as specific beaches, LeLaulu says. Moreover,
he adds, island nations should strive for greater community
ownership of tourist enterprises to ensure that natural resources
are available for future generations. With a greater stake
in tourism, islanders may do more to prevent coastal pollution
and to regenerate the coral reefs that attract visitors and
sustain local ecosystems.
Other experts point out that economic diversification is
also essential for islands that depend heavily on tourism. “The
traditional generic island tourism product that readily attracts
foreign earnings--sand, sea, coastal hotels, and so forth--are
the very amenities that are under threat from sea level rise
and tropical cyclones. . . . The challenge here is the development
of a tourism product that is attractive outside of the traditional
attractions,” says Kumarsingh. He argues that economic
diversification is essential for those economies that are heavily
dependent on tourism. “Otherwise,” he says, “[island
nations] may be setting up themselves for a greater fall--putting
all their eggs in a very vulnerable basket.”
Ultimately, island nations are world treasures whose health
may portend the future of the planet. Both their inhabitants
and the millions who come visiting every year have a stake
in their survival. Postcards sent today depict peaceful serenity,
but behind these nations’ attractive façades lie
many difficult challenges. As the waters and the pressures
rise it remains to be seen whether the world’s island
nations will sink or swim.
Charles W. Schmidt |