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Effects of Residential Mobility on Individual Versus Population Risk of Radon-related Lung Cancer
Kenneth E. Warner,1 Paul N. Courant,2 and David Mendez1
(1)Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 USA
(2)Department of Economics and School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 USA
Abstract
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) does not consider the effects of normal patterns of residential mobility in estimating individual radon-related lung cancer risks. As a consequence, the EPA's population risk estimates may have little bearing on individual risks, and remediation of high-radon homes may have only small health benefits for the individuals who remediate their homes. Through a simulation analysis, we examine the effects of residential mobility on radon exposure and lung cancer risk. Given normal mobility, only 7% of eventual radon-related mortality among current 30 year olds will occur in the 5% currently living in homes above 4 pCi/l (the EPA's action level for remediation), in contrast with an estimate of 31% of deaths when mobility is ignored. Above 10 pCi/l, the no-mobility assumption implies 10.3% of deaths, compared to only 0.4% when mobility is taken into account. We conclude that knowledge of one's current radon exposure is not necessarily a useful guide to one's risk, especially for residents of the high-radon homes targeted for remediation by the EPA. The risk of such individuals is likely to be substantially lower than that implied in the EPA's risk charts. If people currently living in high-radon homes remediate their houses, the majority of the resulting health benefits will accrue to future occupants of their homes. Key words: computer simulation, lung cancer, radon, residential mobility, risk analysis. Environ Health Perspect 103:1144-1149 (1995)
Address correspondence to K. E. Warner, Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 109 Observatory, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 USA.
This research was supported by grant number RO1 CA57691 from the National Cancer Institute. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute. We are grateful to Michael Halpern for important contributions to the genesis of this project and to Bernard Cohen, James Koopman, Howard Kunreuther, Jay Lubin, Jonathan Samet, and David Schottenfeld for helpful suggestions.
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