TRANSITION | Forming the next government
04 June 2008
The Path to the 2008 Presidential Nomination
Barack Obama, John McCain presumed party nominees
Washington -- As the final Democratic primary voters cast ballots in South Dakota and Montana June 3, Illinois Senator Barack Obama told his supporters that, “because of you,” he expects to become the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party.
As those final ballots were being cast, a number of superdelegates -- party leaders who make their own decisions about whom to support at the nominating convention -- indicated they will vote for Obama. Neither Obama nor his opponent, Hillary Clinton, has earned enough pledged delegates to guarantee the nomination, but if the superdelegates who have indicated they will vote for Obama at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August follow their announced intentions, Obama will have more than the 2,118 votes needed to earn the nomination. At that point, Obama would become the party’s official nominee.
According to the Green Papers, an organization that tracks the awarding of delegates, Obama has 1765.5 pledged delegates and 401.5 superdelegates who intend to vote for him. Clinton has 1639.5 pledged delegates and 284.5 superdelegates.
In March, Arizona Senator John McCain earned more than the 1,191 pledged delegates he needs to be the Republican Party's presidential nominee. However, he will not become the official Republican Party nominee until his party's delegates cast their votes at the Republican National Convention in September.
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
To become a party's nominee for president, a candidate must win the support of a majority of delegates to the party’s national convention in the summer of 2008. For whom those delegates will cast their votes is determined by the outcomes of state caucuses and primaries. Convention delegates are divided among states proportionally.
Delegates are "pledged" (or committed) to candidates based on the votes the candidate receives in a state's primary or caucus. Each party in each state has its own guidelines for awarding delegates. However, all Democratic contests must use some form of proportional representation. Many states' Republican parties award all of their delegates to the candidate who receives the most votes.
Some states' party leaders also select a few "unpledged" delegates, and these delegates can vote for any candidate. A candidate must receive a majority of convention votes to secure the party’s nomination. If multiple rounds of voting at the convention are required to select a candidate -- something that has not occurred in recent election cycles -- most states allow delegates to change their votes after the first round of voting.
Democrats are slated to select 4,234 delegates, so a candidate would need to receive a majority of 2,118 votes to win the nomination.
Initially, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) said it would not allow Michigan and Florida's delegates to be counted, as the states violated party rules by holding their primaries prior to February 5.
All Democratic presidential candidates agreed not to campaign in those states, and Obama and most other Democratic candidates removed their names from the Michigan ballot. But mounting pressure from party members resulted in the DNC revising this decision, to allow each delegate from those states to cast half a vote.
Florida delegates will cast 92.5 pledged votes, split among the candidates based on the percentage of the vote each candidate earned in the January 29 primary.
Allocating votes within the Michigan delegation was more complex because Obama’s name did not appear on the state’s ballot. Clinton earned 55 percent of the vote in the January 19 primary while 40 percent voted for “uncommitted.” The rules committee decided Clinton will receive 34.5 pledged delegates while Obama will get 29.5 delegates.
For more on the Florida and Michigan decision, see "Democrats Reach Compromise Plan for Michigan, Florida Delegates."
Republicans will elect at least 2,380 delegates. The party punished Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and South Carolina for scheduling their primaries before February 5. These states will have only half their delegates counted.
For the latest information on the recent races, see the Guide to the 2008 Elections.
