By Leigh Welling and George Seielstad, Upper Midwest Aerospace Consortium

The Upper Midwest Aerospace Consortium (UMAC) hosted its second regional  workshop on climate variability and change on November 15-17, 1999. Approximately  120 participants, including agricultural producers, educators, representatives from government and  industry, academics, and other concerned citizens met at the University of North Dakota  to discuss concerns and outline strategies for meeting the challenge of climate change in  this broad and very diverse region. While regional representation was largely from the states of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Minnesota and the Dakotas, the event drew  attendees from the Central Plains, the Southwest, and the East Coast. Several  representatives from the national global change community attended as well. This was  the first UMAC meeting to include Sinte Gleska University, a tribal university in Mission  SD, as a full partner in the consortium.

Working groups focused on seven key topics for discussion: agriculture, rangelands, parks and protected lands, forestry, education and public outreach, water resources, and extreme weather. Plenary presentations included overview discussions of key global change issues and assessment activities, as well as specific examples of how individuals, businesses, and educators are utilizing state-of-the-art technology and resources to enhance their own abilities to respond to climate change impacts.

In her keynote address, Rosina Bierbaum from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy highlighted several key issues that could play major roles in how the northern Plains responds to climate change. Among them were the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, shifts in the range and composition of natural ecosystems, and the availability of adequate water supplies. Not all parts of this region will be affected in the same way by global scale change. Anthony Janetos, of the World Resources Institute, discussed how important it is to understand the regional differences because change is first felt locally. He pointed out that climate change is inevitable because the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is “headed nowhere but up. --

 

Perhaps the most poignant example of rapid climate change in this region was demonstrated by Daniel Fagre, with the US Geological Survey's Global Change Research Group at Glacier National Park. Using a model simulation (Figs. 1a -- 1c) that combines historical measurements and future CO₂ predictions, his research team predicts the complete demise of glaciers in the park by 2030.

While the effects of a warming climate on snow and ice can be dramatically visualized, the direct impacts of climate change on agriculture, one of the region's dominant economic engines, is more difficult to predict. One possible outcome of increased CO₂ concentrations is enhanced production. However, Francesco Tubiello, of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, warned producers that results from CO₂ enhancement models are based on controlled laboratory experiments and, for example, do not factor in the possibility of increases in extreme weather events. Nonetheless, many producers and agronomists alike are convinced that production agriculture is potentially one of the most adaptable of all industries.

Climax, Minnesota farmer, Gary Wagner, showed examples of how he uses site-specific weather information and satellite imagery to help in resource management decisions for water, weed control, fertilizer application, and crop rotation. Wagner argued that precision farming techniques are a producer's best opportunity for retaining profitability even when weather and climate factors do not cooperate. Montana State University agricultural economist, Susan Capalbo echoed his sentiment. “Economic impacts depend on the ability of producers to adapt, -- she said. Other northern Plains farmers at the workshop, including Janice and Carl Mattson of Chester, Montana and Chuck Merja from Sun River, Montana, emphasized the need for reliable and timely delivery of information about the environment in order to facilitate appropriate actions. Merja likened climate change to an oncoming train. “I would like some of those ‘crossing warnings' so that I can understand and know what I'm going to do in the coming year, -- he said. All of these producers stood out as people whose actions mitigate some of the undesirable consequences of climate warming.

There were also fine examples of how educators and community leaders are using climate change issues as a focal point for involving people in their own communities. Roger Palmer, a Grand Forks high school teacher, demonstrated several thematic projects he uses to engage students in solving local environmental problems that are exacerbated by climate variability. Dave Archambault, a Lakota Native from the Standing Rock Reservation that straddles North and South Dakota, discussed how Native people can be leaders in identifying and practicing harmonious relations with nature, a necessary first step toward a sustainable future for all.
 
For more information:
Workshop proceedings will be available in April 2000 and will be posted on the UMAC website at http://www.umac.org/environment/index.html. Plenary sessions were videotaped live and are also available on the web.