by Zhu Ning

The assessment of possible climate change impacts for the Gulf Coast region reached an important milestone in February 1998 when Southern University hosted its regional Climate Change Workshop and Public Forum.  The purpose of this workshop, supported by funds from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, was to explore the region's potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and climate change, and to obtain information that could be aggregated across regions in support of the US National Assessment.  The workshop focused on creating a preliminary scoping assessment of the region's principal socioeconomic activities and of other values important to the region, as these could be affected by future climate change: coastal ecosystem, farming, forests, commerce, energy, fisheries, aquaculture, health, water resources, air quality, recreation, and tourism.  More than 200 scientists, policy makers, stakeholders, industry representatives, state, regional, and national experts attended the workshop. The ethnic and cultural makeup of the workshop participants reflected that of the region as a whole.

The workshop participants identified current stresses and other issues of concern throughout the region, considered how climate variability and climate change might interact in the future with these stresses and issues, discussed the information needed to support a full regional climate assessment, identified a range of possible coping strategies, characterized regional research needs, and suggested regional follow-up assessment activities. The major workshop findings are published in a report entitled, “Global Climate Change and Its Consequences for the Gulf Coast Region of the United States -- .  This report can be found on the National Assessment website, www.nacc.usgcrp.gov.  

Out of this workshop was conceived the plan for a full Gulf Coast regional climate assessment.  Intensive work on this assessment will begin early in 2000.  It will encompass the Gulf coastal plains of southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western Florida and the contiguous coastal waters on the continental shelf.  This region is home to a large proportion of the Nation's petroleum-producing and petrochemical facilities.  It has a robust fishing industry, productive bottomland forests and farms, and extensive wetlands and estuarine ecosystems.  The individuals populating this region are diverse with a range of social and ethnic backgrounds, living in large population centers and in rural communities.

The overall goal of this assessment effort is to analyze and evaluate the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the region in the context of other pressures on the people, environment, and natural resources of the region.  Specific assessment objectives are to: 1) select and apply climate scenarios/models, ecosystem models, and socioeconomic trend scenarios to regional data bases; 2) assess potential climate change impacts on sectors within the region, with an emphasis on coastal ecosystems and bottomland forests; 3) assess the consequences of such impacts for typical communities within the region, with special attention to the vulnerability of minority communities; 5) conduct outreach activities for stakeholders to create a two-way exchange of information, especially for minority communities, small limited-resource farmers, minority farmers, small woodland forest owners, and socially and economically disadvantaged communities; and 6) build institutional capacity at Southern University by developing a core team of faculty members who would be capable of making substantial contributions to future climate change assessment projects.

Scientists at Southern University and A&M College, an 1890 land-grant Historically Black College and University (HBCU) institution, will lead this assessment. Southern University is the largest institution within the nation's historically black university system.  It is located on three campuses and is optimally positioned to serve black and other minority communities throughout the Gulf Coast region.  Scientists from Louisiana State University, the National Wetland Research Center (USGS), and Alabama A&M State University (also an HBCU institution) will also play important roles in this assessment.

The interrelationship between the physical and ecological natural environment and humans and their society has been explicitly recognized in the planning of this regional assessment.  Most agree that the goals of environmental protection and economic development must be in balance if society is to be sustainable over the long-term in providing for the wellbeing of its members, now and into the future.  This study effort will incorporate ecological, economic, social, and cultural values into the assessment process in an effort to inform on some aspects of how such a balance might be achieved.  Due to the unique perspective and capabilities of scientists at Southern, this assessment will give particular attention to the potential impacts of climate change on minority communities.  It will do so by assessing potential socioeconomic impacts on small, limited-resource farmers, minority forest/woodland owners, and socially and economically disadvantaged communities. 

The assessment will be integrated horizontally to include two crucial sectors: coastal ecosystems and bottomland forests.  It will also be integrated vertically starting with climate scenarios, to ecosystem models, to socioeconomic trends, to socioeconomic consequences.  The assessment of some critical issues will be made by means of scientists conducting specially selected case studies.  Case study results will provide sound scientific data and analyses to support the more generalized impact analyses and projections.

Outreach and stakeholder involvement will also be a fundamental component of the assessment.  Concerted efforts will be made to expand the stakeholder network that was initially established by Southern University before, during and after the Gulf Coast Regional Climate Change Assessment Workshop.  These stakeholders include policy makers, managers, planers, scientists, private business owners, farmers, fishermen, minorities, and members of low-income communities.  Outreach workshops and town meetings will be held to obtain detailed information on key issues, concerns, coping strategies, and research needs.

Analytical results, such as the findings of the case studies, will be submitted to relevant scholarly journals.   The final regional report and its compendium of papers with supporting analyses will be thoroughly peer-reviewed and completed in early 2002.  These results will be a regional contribution to whatever form the post-2000 National Assessment of climate change may take.  They will form a base upon which investigators can build in future attempts to assemble more reaching and comprehensive assessments of climate variability and change in the Gulf Coast region.  Equally importantly, the results will be distributed to regional stakeholders, policy makers, scientists, and the general public to inform their views on preparing for climate variability and climate change.

For more information, contact:
Zhu Ning, Gulf Coast Regional Climate Change Assessment Project Director, Southern University, Baton Rouge, LA 70813; phone and fax: (225) 771-3286; email:zning@subr.edu