Alaska is important to the nation and the world since it produces about 10% of the world's fish catches and enough oil to supply about 20% of US domestic petroleum consumption. It also has the largest parks, wildlife refuges and preserves in the nation. All of these are at risk due to global climate change, which has resulted in major warming in Alaska in recent decades. Chapman and Walsh (1993) show a warming trend over Alaska that is on the order of 0.75 degree C per decade over the last three decades. Over the ocean areas the warming in the Eastern Bering Sea is on the order of 0.25 degree C per decade but less over the Western Bering Sea. These data are based on meteorological station records in the region.

The Alaska regional scoping workshop, held at the University of Alaska in June, 1997, examined the consequences of this documented climate change in the region, and assessed present and future impacts due to climate change on forests, tundra, wildlife and fisheries, the coastal zone, permafrost regimes, social and cultural systems and lifestyles, resources, and man-made infrastructure (Weller and Anderson, 1998). It listed and discussed major impacts already experienced, both positive and negative in relation to human activities, and projected future changes if present climate trends continue. Some of the observed impacts (positive +, or negative -) include:

• Major changes in fisheries catches in recent years, due to both longer-term climate change and El Nino conditions (+ and -).
• Accelerated permafrost thawing, leading to costly increases in road damage and road maintenance (-).
• Major landscape changes from forest to bogs, and in grasslands and wetland ecosystems, due to permafrost thawing, affecting land use (-).
• Increased forest fire frequency and insect outbreaks with reduced economic forest yields (-).
• A lengthening of the growing season for agriculture and forestry by up to 20%, producing higher yields (+).
• Increased coastal erosion and inundation, due to less sea ice in the Bering Sea and more severe storm surges, causing threats to structures (-).
• Impacts on Native subsistence lifestyles as snow and sea ice changes affect land and marine animals used in hunting/fishing (-).

The assessment so far has been successful in summarizing recent changes in climate and their effects on the physical environment, including the snow and ice features that are so important in Alaska. Less successful have been attempts to synthesize quantitatively the impacts on ecosystems and biota since many other factors are important here. This area of research needs additional attention. Least successful so far have been attempts to quantify the impacts of global change on economic activities, including fisheries, forestry, transportation, and subsistence. These latter topics will be the focus of the next step in the Alaska regional assessment at a workshop that will take place at the University of Alaska Fairbanks on 29-31 October 1998.

References:

Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh, 1993. Recent variations of sea ice and air temperatures in high latitudes. Bull. of Am. Met. Soc. 74 (1), 33-47.

Weller, G., and P. Anderson (eds.), 1998. Implications of Global Change in Alaska and the Bering Sea Region. Proceedings of a Workshop at the University of Alaska Fairbanks on 3-6 June, 1997. Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 155 pages, 1998.

For more information, contact:

Gunter Weller, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775; (907) 474-7371; gunter@gi.alaska.edu