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Evaluation of Hydrologic Uncertainty Assessments for Decommissioning Sites Using Complex and Simplified Models (NUREG/CR-6767)

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Publication Information

Prepared by
P. D. Meyer
S. Orr

T. J. Nicholson, NRC Project Manager

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA 99352

March 2002

Prepared for
Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001
NRC JCN W6933

Availability Notice


Introduction

This report is the third (and final) report in a series that addresses issues related to hydrologic uncertainty assessment at decommissioning sites. Analyses in the first two reports in this series emphasized the application of relatively simplified models of subsurface flow and transport. Because of their relative computational speed, such simplified models are particularly attractive when the impact of uncertainty in flow and transport needs to be evaluated. These same simplifications, however, have the potential to provide unrepresentative estimates of dose and its uncertainty. Such misrepresentation may have important consequences for decisions based on the dose assessments. The significance of this concern was evaluated by comparing results from uncertainty assessments conducted on a test case using a simplified modeling approach and a more complex/realistic modeling approach.



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