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Climate Change Impacts on
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The National Assessment Overview and Foundation Reports were produced by the National Assessment Synthesis Team, an advisory committee chartered under the Federal Advisory Committee Act, and were not subjected to OSTP's Information Quality Act Guidelines. The National Assessment was forwarded to the President and Congress in November 2000 for their consideration.
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Cover:
NASA
Table of Contents:
Pages 2- 3: NASA Pages 4- 5: NASA Page 7: NASA Page 9:
Page 10 & 11:
Page 12: Illustration - Melody Warford Page 13: Temperature data from - M. Mann, et.al., (1999) Geophysical Research Letters: CO2 Data from -- M. Etheridge, et.al., (1998) and C. D. Keeling (1999) through the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL): Carbon Emissions Data from - R.Andres, et.al., (2000), R. Houghton, (1995, 1996) and G. Marland, et.al., (1999) through the CDIAC/ORNL.. Page 15: Based on illustration of National Climate Data Center (National Climatic Data Center). Page 17: all -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 18: Based on data from National Climatic Data Center. Page 19: El Niño graphics - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Lab home Page. Page 20: all -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 21: all -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 22: all -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 23: all -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 24: all �P. Grabhorn Page 25: photo - �P. Grabhorn: Distribution of Plant Communities -based on graphic that first appeared in R.H.Whittaker, (1970). Communities and Ecosystems. Macmillan.NewYork. Page 26: all �P. Grabhorn Page 27: Changes in Vegetation Carbon - output of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) - run as part of the VEMAP II study -- J. Melillo, et. al., (1999) The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laborator y, Woods Hole, MA.: all photos - �P. Grabhorn. Page 28 - 29: Ecosystem Models - out-put of the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) Model, R. Neilson, et.al., (2000) US Dept of Agriculture(US Department of Agriculture), Forest Service -abstract appears AGU, Washington DC, May-June. Page 30 - 31: 21st Century Growth charts -- P. Grabhorn, based on projec-tions by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and NPA Data Services, Inc., in collaboration with the National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST): City photo - �P. Grabhorn Page 32: US Population and Growth Trends - CIESIN, Columbia University, based on projections by NPA Data Services, Inc., in collaboration with NAST. Page 35: Hurricanes and their Impacts: updated by R.A.Pielke Jr., from P.J. Herbert, , J.D. Jarrell, and M. Mayfield, (1996).The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense Hurricanes of this Century. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-I. Page 36: California red tide photo -� P.J. Franks: Florida: University of South Florida (USF) (Frank M�ller-Karger) "Maine": (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastwatch, Bruce Keafer, WHOI) Page 37: Illustration by Bill Baker and Paul Grabhorn with content from NAST. Page 38 - 39: Annual Temp charts -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Alaska Map - : Islands Map - : US Map - �C.Grabhorn. Page 40: Map - �C.Grabhorn Page 41: Photos -- Mt.Washington, Barry Rock, University of New Hampshire: Temp.and Precip Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: NY Storm Surge Map - Klaus Jacobs, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. Page 42 - 43: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Snow Photo - American Red Cross: Chesapeake Satellite Image - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Scientific Visualization Studio, SeaWIFS image: Temp.and Heat Index Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Percent Salinity Change - J. Gibson and R. Najjar, Penn State University. Page 44 - 45: Map -�C.Grabhorn: Skier Photo - Greg Keeler: Stream Photo - �P. Grabhorn: Dominant Forest Types Maps - Prasad, A.M.and L.R.Iverson.(1999-ongoing).A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database], Northeastern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio. Page 46: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Ghost Forest Photo - US Geological Survey. Page 47: Coastal Loss Map - US Geological Survey (US Geological Survey) and Louisiana Department of Natural Resources: Temp.and Precip.Maps - B Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 48: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Flooded Community Photo - V. Burkett - US Geological Survey, Heat Index & Soil Moisture maps - B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Page 49: Crop Yields - Auburn University, Global Hydrology and Climate Center, University of Florida, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department. Pages 50 - 51: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Forest Maps - US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Global Change Program: Timberland Acreage -- North Carolina State University, Department of Forestry: Research Triangle Institute Center for Economics Research.Pages 52 - 53: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Temp.and Precip.Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Barge photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 54 - 55: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Lake Ice Duration - John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin: Summer Climate Shift Maps - Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois and compiled by Byron Gleason National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.Pages 56 - 57: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Midwest Soybean Yield - Dave Easterling National Climatic Data Center: Midwest Daily Precip.- compliled by Byron Gleason National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, flooded barn photo -� P. Grabhorn.Pages 58 - 59: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Temp.and Precip.Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Tractor photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 60 - 61: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Consumptive Water Use and Irrigated Water Use Graphics -- Ojima, et.al., (1999). Potential climate change impacts on water resources in the Great Plains. JAWRA, 35, 1443-1454: Palmer Drought and July Heat Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.Pages 62 - 63: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Spotted Knapweed, Leafy Spurge, and Yellow Starthistle Photos: Leafy Spurge Map: Soil Moisture Map -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Soil Carbon & NPP Maps - Century results from VEMAP analysis, Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University,Pages 64 - 65: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Population Chart - U.S.Census Bureau, (1998), California Trade and Commerce Agency, (1997): California Department of Finance, (1998), CLI-MAS, ( 1998), NPA Data Services, Inc., (1999): Temp.and Precip.Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Forest Fire photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 66 - 67: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Water Use Chart -- based on Solley, et. al., (1998), Diaz and Anderson, (1995), CLIMAS, (1998), Templin, (1999): Ecosystem Maps - output of the MAPSS model, Neilson, et.al., (2000) US Department of Agriculture Forest Service - abstract appears AGU, Washington DC, May-June.Pages 68 - 69: Map - � C.Grabhorn: Reservoir photo - Seattle Public Utilities Department: Temp and Precip.Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.Pages 70 - 71: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Columbia Streamflow - Mote, et.al., (1999) Impacts of climate vari-ability and change in the Pacific Northwest.University of Washington -- Summary: Climate Variability On Salmon - Mantua et al, University Washington: Regional Impacts Chart -- P. Grabhorn adapted from Mote, et.al., (1999) Impacts of climate vari-ability and change in the Pacific Northwest.University of Washington.Pages 72 - 73: Map - �C.Grabhorn: Soil Moisture Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Forest photo - �P. Grabhorn: Winter Snow Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Mountain photo - �P. Grabhorn: Projected Northwest Daily Precip Change - National Climatic Data Center.Pages 74 - 75: Map - : Iceberg Photo -� P. Grabhorn: Observed Temp and Precip - Data from Historical Climate Network, National Climatic Data Center: Precip.and Temp. Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.Pages 76 & 77: Map - : Sea Ice Change Maps -- P. Grabhorn, based on polar projections of Canadian model results by B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Boreal Forest Fire Chart - after Figure 1.2, pg.2, in E.S.Kasischke and B.J. Stocks (eds.) (2000), Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest, Ecological Studies Series, NewYork: Springer-Verlag, in press. Data from Alaska Fire Service, Canadian Fire Service: Fishing Boat photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 78 - 79: Map - : Soil Moisture and Winter Temp Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Caribou and Seal photos - �P. Grabhorn: Vegetation Distribution Maps - Neilson, R.P., I.C.Prentice, B.Smith, T.G.F. Kittel, and D.Viner (1998).Simulated changes in vegeta-tion distribution under global warm-ing, Annex C in R.T.Watson, M.C.Zinyowera, R.H.Moss and D.J. Dokken, (eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Special report of IPCC Working Group 2.Cambridge University Press, pg.439-456.Pages 80 - 81: Maps - US Geological Survey, Dept of Insular Affairs: El Niño Billboard photo - U.S. National Weather Service, Pacific Region Office, Hakalau photo - Jack Jeffery : Coral Reef photo - �P. Grabhorn: Mangrove photo - �P. Grabhorn: .Pages 82 - 83: Beach photo - �P. Grabhorn: Freshwater Lens - illustra-tion by Melody Warford : Hurricane Georges Map - US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 040- 99, April 99: El Niño Charts - James O'Brien, Florida State University com-piled by T Karl:Pages 84 - 85: Petroglyph photo - �P. Grabhorn: Harvesting wild rice- BIA.Pages 86 - 87: Indian ruins photo -BIA: Irrigable Indian lands - from "Atlas of the NewWest, " W. W. Norton and Company, 1997: Salmon photo -PNWL, Landscape photo - �P. Grabhorn, Indian ruins photo - BIA.Pages 88 - 89: All photos - � P. Grabhorn.Pages 90 - 91: Tractor photo - �P. Grabhorn: Yield Charts -- Changing Climate and Changing Agriculture: Report of the Agricultural Sector Assessment Team (2000).Pages 92 - 93: Farm Photo - �P. Grabhorn: Yield Charts, Regional Production Charts, and Economic Impacts Charts - Changing Climate and Changing Agriculture: Report of the Agricultural Sector Assessment Team (2000).Pages 94 - 95: Flooded Farm photo -� P. Grabhorn: Corn Yield Chart -Changing Climate and Changing Agriculture: Report of the Agricultural Sector Assessment Team (2000): Ranch photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 96 - 97: Water photo - �P. Grabhorn: Water Withdrawal Chart -- based on Solley, et.al., (1998) US Geological Survey Circular 1200.Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 1995: Snowline Illustration -- M. Warford: Columbia Basin Snow Extent -- Mote, et.al., (1999) Impacts of climate var i-ability and change in the Pacific Northwest, University of Washington: Winter Snow Cover Maps -- Redrafted from data presented in McCabe, G.J.: Wolock, D.M.(1999) General-circula-tion- model simulations of future snowpack in the western United States. JAWRA, v 35, 1473-1484.Pages 98 - 99: Wetland photo - �P. Grabhorn: Palmer Drought Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Observed Changes Chart - National Climatic Data Center.Pages 100 - 101: Flooded House photo - �P. Grabhorn: National Daily Precip.Chart -- National Climatic Data Center: Summer Stream Temp.Chart -: Prairie Pothole photo - US Geological Survey: Groundwater Recharge photo -- Orange County Water District: CAP Canal photo - K. Jacobs: Subsidence photo - K. Jacobs.Pages 102 - 103: Boys and Water photo - �P. Grabhorn: Heat Index Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Heat Related Deaths - Chicago -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Present and Projected Heat Deaths Chart -Data from Kalkstein and Greene (1997). The three climate scenarios used in the study were GFDL, UKMO, and Max-Planck, 1985 runs using the IPCC transient scenario without aerosols.Pages 104 - 105: NY City photo - �P. Grabhorn: Maximum Daily Ozone Chart -- EPA: Atlanta photos - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 106 - 107: Albuquerque photo -� P. Grabhorn: Dengue Map - data from Mexican Ministry of Health and CDC: Potential Health Effect Chart -Patz et al., 2000Pages 108 - 109: Coastal photo - �P. Grabhorn: Coastal Vulnerability Map -US Geological Survey, Coastal Geology Program: Ocean Circulation Chart - Illustration by Melody Warford adapted from Broecker (1991) Nature 315: 21-26: Sea Bird photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 110 - 111: Coral Reef photo -� P. Grabhorn: Marsh Elevation Illustration - Illustration by Melody Warford based on original figure by US Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center: US Coastal Lands at Risk Chart -- US EPA (1989).The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. EPA # 230-05-89- 050: Temp and CO2 Stresses Data Chart -- Wiley Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change (in press) and Kleypas et.al., (1999) Science 284: 118-120 with background photo - � P. Grabhorn: Bleached Coral photo -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration photo library: Calcium carbon-ate maps - Kleypas, J. A., R.W. Buddemeier, et al.(1999). Geochemical consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on coral reefs.Science, 284(2 April 1999): 118-120. The Reebase reefs were not shown on that map, but the juxtaposition of those reefs to the saturation state data was portrayed and discussed in Kleypas, J. A., J. W. McManus, et, al., (1999). "Environmental limits to coral reef development: Where do we draw the line?" American Zoologist 39(1): 146- 159.Pages 112 - 113: Storm photo -Associated Press Laserphoto: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps -- B. Felzer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: Annual Shoreline Change Map - US Geological Survey, Coastal Geology Program.Pages 114 - 115: Forest photo - �P. Grabhorn: Current Distribution Map - Data are from US Department of Agriculture Forest Service: Forest Land Percentages Chart - Data are from Forest Service Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-168, Forest Resource Report No.23, No.17, No. 14, the Report of the Joint Committee on Forestry, 77th Congress 1st Session, Senate Document No.32. Data for 1850 and 1870 were based on information collected during the 1850 and 1870 decennial census, data for 1907 were also based on the decennial census modified by expert opinion, reported by R.S. Kellog in Forest Service Circular 166.Data for 1630 were included in Circular 166 as an estimate of the original forest area based on the current estimate of forest and historic land clearing infor-mation. These data are provided here for general reference purposes only to convey the relative extent of the forest estate in what is now the US at the time of European settlement (US Department of Agriculture Forest Service in review).Pages 116 - 117: Foliage photo - �P. Grabhorn: Forest Fire Fighter photo -� P. Grabhorn: Dominant Forest Types Maps - Prasad, A.M.and L.R.Iverson. (1999-ongoing). A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database], Northeastern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.Pages 118 - 119: Tree photo - �P. Grabhorn: Change in Forestry Welfare Chart and Projected Average Timber Price Chart - Irland, L.C., D. Adams, R. Alig, C. J. Betz, C.Chen, M.Mutchins, B.A.McCarl, K.Skog, and B.W. Sohngen (2000).Assessing socioeco-nomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood product markets, and forest recreation, Bioscience, (in press): Tree photo - �P. Grabhorn.Pages 120 - 121: Earth Image - NASA, Water photo - �P. Grabhorn.Page 123: Maps - �C.Grabhorn: Invasive Species photos; all other photos - �P. Grabhorn.Page 135: Hurricane Image - NASA. Page 141: Earth with Hurricane Image - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. |
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