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03 April 2008
Election Experts Discuss the U.S. Presidential Race
Ask America webchat transcript, April 1
America.gov election experts Michelle Austein and George Burkes answered questions April 1 in an Ask America webchat on the people, processes and issues that shape the U.S. presidential race.
Following is the transcript:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
Ask America Webchat Transcript
America.gov’s U.S. Election Web Page
Guest: Michelle Austein & George Burkes
Date: April 1, 2008
Time: 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT)
Michelle Austein & George Burkes: Welcome to today's America.gov's U.S. Elections Web chat. This is your chance to ask questions about the people, processes and issues that shape the U.S. presidential race. This is also your opportunity to speak out about America.gov's U.S. Elections web page – let us know what you like, what you don't like and what you would like to learn more about. We'll be hosting this chat on the first Tuesday of every month through Election Day. Please join us at 9:00 EDT (1300 GMT.) In the meantime, we encourage you to check out these links: U.S. Elections, Campaign Trail Talk.
Hello everyone and thanks for joining us for this U.S. Elections web chat. We are here to answer any questions you have on the current presidential campaign or any questions you may have about the process of electing leaders in the United States.
We hope you are familiar with our U.S. Elections web site. If not, you will find a great amount of information about how U.S. elections work. If you are familiar with the Web site, feel free to share your comments on what you like, and what you think we can do a better job on.
Question [Ulug'bek]: What do you think who will win at the election of the USA?
Answer [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: Hello, that's a great question – but nobody knows the answer. This is an historic election for many reasons, and we just don't know who Americans will end up selecting on Election Day, November 4, 2008.
What we do know is that whomever is elected will be setting new records. John McCain would be the oldest president, Barack Obama would be the first African-American president and Hillary Clinton would be the first female president.
For the first time in decades, no sitting president or vice president is seeking the presidency, which is why the race was so wide open when it began more than a year ago!
All these factors have contributed to record voter turnout in many primaries and caucuses.
Polls currently show that no matter who gets the democratic nomination, there will likely be a close race. Current polls show that John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee, would have a tougher contest against Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton, but the poll numbers are so close that they mean very little.
The election is still a long way away, so anything can happen! So don't read too much into what current polls are saying, because Americans may feel very differently about the candidates in November.
Q [Ulug'bek]: When will the Elections begin in the USA?
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: It has already begun. Campaigning for the 2008 presidential election, which will be held on November 4, has been ongoing for more than a year! Each party had several candidates who participated in debates and met with voters across the country. The first caucuses and primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire were held in early January, and primaries continue to be held in states up until June 7. It has been one of the longest presidential campaign seasons in U.S. history.
Q [collman]: Will United States of America be led by a democrat or a republican?
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: We have no idea which party will lead the United States beginning in 2009. A March AP-Ipsos poll showed 52 percent of Americans call themselves Democrats (up from 45 percent in an AP-Ipsos survey in a December poll.) Thirty-five percent say they are Republicans. But some Americans will "cross party lines" and vote for a candidate in a different party if they like that candidate better. So it is unclear who will win.
Political experts say the Democrats have an advantage for two reasons. First, President Bush, a Republican, has a low approval rating of about 35 percent. History shows this gives an advantage to the candidate from the other party. Second, Americans are concerned about the economy, and historically, when Americans are unhappy with the economy, they vote the party in power out of office. However, 2008 has been an unpredictable election year, and despite these historical advantages, the Democratic candidate could still lose the election.
Often those overseas wonder why third-party candidates have trouble winning the presidency. Here is a good article that explains the U.S. political party system.
Q [collman]: As we can see the polls of this coming elections in the U.S., I would like to advise Mrs. Clinton to step down in favour of Mr. Obama, because if she becomes the flag bearer of the democrats she will loose to the republican Mr. McCain unlike if Mr. Obama becomes the flag bearer.
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: Your opinion is shared by many Obama supporters and other prominent Democrats who are worried that a long drawn out fight between Obama and Clinton for the Democratic nomination could hurt either candidate when they compete against John McCain, who has plenty of time now to unify his party behind him.
However, many Democrats believe it is important that Clinton stay in the race. One reason why is that not all Americans have cast their votes yet. About ten states and territories still have primaries to hold, and these Democrats want an opportunity to have their voice heard.
In fact, a recent poll found that 22 percent of Democrats think Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race, while the same percentage think Barack Obama should exit the race.
Moderator: Want to know more about the candidates? Each candidate has a detailed web site that provides great information about their background and their views on important issues. You can find them online at: www.hillaryclinton.com, www.barackobama.com, www.johnmccain.com.
America.gov also provides great information about the candidates. Learn more about their backgrounds on America.gov's Candidates Web page.
Q [scoopy]: What is the most update decision for the presidential election issues in Michigan and Florida? Why can't they just recount the ballots they already voted, instead of revote? Because it is easier this way, otherwise you have to waste lots of money and time to do such revoting process? I do not understand why Clinton already won votes in Texas on March 4th, but it ends up on the Caucus vote, Obama actually won more delegates than Clinton in the delegate's gaining? Why? And how it happens this way?
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: The situation with Michigan and Florida is complex. In the fall of 2007, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) punished Michigan and Florida for scheduling their primaries prior to February 5. At that time, the DNC said it would not count Michigan and Florida’s delegates. The presidential candidates agreed not to campaign in those states, and Barack Obama and most other Democratic candidates removed their names from the Michigan ballot.
When this punishment was imposed, the DNC probably did not expect the race for the presidential nomination to be so close. Traditionally a candidate with momentum picks up a lot of wins so quickly that it does not matter if every delegate is counted at the convention.
But now, as both Obama and Hillary Clinton strive to earn the majority of delegates needed to receive the nomination, there have been calls to include the Michigan and Florida delegates as voting participants in the national convention.
The reason the states can not just count the ballots already cast is because many argue that the vote wasn't fair. Neither candidate campaigned in those states, and voters in Michigan did not have the opportunity to vote for Obama. That is why many wanted a revote – but there were problems with finding a way to conduct a revote fairly and affordably (elections cost a lot of money), and plans to hold a revote in both states failed. Plans are still being considered to allow Florida and Michigan delegates participate in the convention in some fashion – perhaps by allowing half of their delegates to count.
Texas Democrats hold a very unique nominating election in which two thirds of their delegates are selected in a primary, and one third are selected in a caucus. Here is a good article that explains why, Texans Vote Twice.
On March 4, Clinton narrowly won the primary, but Obama won the caucuses by a significant amount, allowing him to win three more delegates than Clinton in that state.
Delegates and superdelegates are confusing topics even to Americans. Here are two good articles that help explain their significance, Delegates and Superdelegates.
Q [inexplicability]: Hello, I am Azzeddine EL HASNAOUI. A 20 year-old Moroccan boy. I always ask the question whether Barack Obama is a Muslim or Christian. Either answers; Show me where it says Barack Obama is a muslim or where it says Christian. I tried Obama's school records... For proof of his Islamic religion... Barack Hussein Obama was registered under the name "Barry Soetoro" serial number 203 and entered the Franciscan Asisi Primary School on 1 January 1968 and sat in class 1B. School documents listed Barry Soetoro as an Indonesian citizen born in Honolulu, Hawaii on 4 August 1961. Barry's religion was listed as Islam. Google is my friend!
Michelle Austein & George Burkes: Google is a great search tool, but we caution you to remember to check the sources carefully, as not everything you find on the Internet is accurate.
Some Americans are confused about this as well – about ten percent in a March poll believed Obama is Muslim. Obama's middle name is Hussein, which is a common Arabic name. He also lived in Indonesia, a country with a large Muslim population. But Obama is actually a practicing Christian. However, he does have Muslim roots – Obama has described his father from Kenya as "a non-practicing Muslim."
Q [selinawang]: Hello, I'm a Chinese student. I would love to know something about the election. What are the candidates' ideas about American economy? Thank you.
Michelle Austein & George Burkes: Americans are very concerned about their pocket books right now – in fact, about 42 percent in a recent poll said the economy was the most important issue influencing their choice for president. It seems that in the months ahead the economy will be one of the most discussed topics on the campaign trail. Each of the candidates have outlined in depth economic goals and plans, and we encourage you to visit their web sites for more details.
John McCain is focusing on cutting taxes for the middle class and improving tax credits for new businesses to encourage them to develop new innovative technologies. Barack Obama speaks a lot about cutting taxes for the working class and reviewing trade agreements to make sure they protect American workers. Hillary Clinton advocates providing more affordable healthcare and educational opportunities.
Here is a good Web site that explains the candidates' views on the economy.
Want to know the candidates views on other important issues such as the war in Iraq or international relations? Learn more on the U.S. Elections: Candidates on the Issues Web page.
Q [Dana2]: Why do the candidates consider that they have to lie in order to win? ...see the Clinton description on what happened in a trip to Serbia I think.
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: This is a great question – and a difficult one to answer. This question refers to an incident in which Clinton said she was "under sniper fire" when visiting Bosnia, but later video surfaced showing this was not the case.
This is definitely not the first time on the U.S. campaign trail that a candidate has not been entirely truthful. Sometimes Americans find out that a candidate's story has been embellished, maybe in an attempt to make a story have more impact or make a group of supporters feel more comfortable – for example, while he was speaking earlier this year to a group in New Hampshire, Republican Mitt Romney said he was a "lifetime hunter" when in fact he had only gone hunting twice. It is probably not surprising that New Hampshire has a lot of people who enjoy hunting.
One of the most important things Americans consider when selecting a presidential candidate is the candidate's character. They want to know that the person they are electing will be honest and use good judgment. When a candidate gets caught in a lie, it often angers many Americans.
America.gov does not just cover the presidential race. We'll be following important State and Local races as well. Learn more about these races on the State and Local web page.
Q [Chat Participant]: Hello. We are from Dushanbe Deafschool#8. What do you think about Election? Who will be chosen on the post of President? Deaf students.
A [Michelle Austein & George Burkes]: Hello Dushanbe Deafschool#8. No one knows who will be chosen president. A lot of political experts and pundits on American television will offer predictions, but the truth is, we will not know until the votes are counted on November 4. Polls are helpful tools that help show who Americans might likely vote for, but polls are not always right. Americans saw that earlier this year, when nearly every major poll said Barack Obama would win the New Hampshire Democratic primary, but Hillary Clinton actually won it.
Americans are very excited to see what happens in November. We hope you are too!
Thanks for joining us! Great questions! Sorry if we did not get to yours. But we'll be back here the first Tuesday of every month, so keep your questions coming and we'll try to answer them at our next Web chat on May 6.
In the meantime, keep checking out the U.S. Elections web page for new information.
(end transcript)
(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
