(For example, between 1960 and 2000 population in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region grew by 129 percent. In the West, Rocky Mountain, and South Regions it grew by 120, 114, and 109 percent respectively. In the Appalachian Region population grew by only 27 percent, and in the Mid-Atlantic Region by only 25 percent. These patterns are somewhat indicative of people migrating to the more southern and western areas of the country).

Although distress in the Southwest Region is not quite as extensive as found in many other parts of the U.S., this region exhibits similar characteristics associated with distress as are found in other regions of the nation. For example, as is the case in areas such as Central and Southern Appalachia and the South, economic distress is geographically clustered, with two particular clusters of distress in the region. The first is found in Eastern Oklahoma, while the second bridges areas of Northern New Mexico and Northern Arizona. Not surprisingly, considering the national and regional trends as previously discussed, distress in Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona is largely associated with issues of race. In particular, economic distress in the Southwest is associated with areas that have relatively large percentages of Native American populations, including, for example, the Navajo Indian Reservation, which extends through parts of Arizona and New Mexico. In short, and as has become a somewhat common theme in this analysis, persistent distress in the Southwest Region is marked by patterns of race.

(The logistic regression model in Appendix C related to distress in the Southwest Region in 2000 indicated that factors having a statistically significant relationship with current distress included high minority populations; low educational attainment; low employment in manufacturing; low employment in agriculture; and metropolitan location, with counties that were neither within nor proximate to a metropolitan area more likely to be distressed. In terms of counties that remained distressed between 1960 and 2000 and counties that graduated from distress during that period of time, only race and metropolitan location were associated with persistent distress, with the same types of relationships as found in the model measuring distress in 2000 alone).

In currently non-distressed areas of the Southwest, the Native American population is slightly less than 2 percent, while in the region's distressed counties it is 31 percent. Similar patterns are found in counties that either stayed distressed or graduated from distress between 1960 and 2000, with counties that graduated from distress having Native American populations of slightly below 4 percent, compared to 23 percent in the counties that remained distressed over time. (These figures are based upon summing population variables for distressed as well as non-distressed counties in the region). Counties such as Adair, Oklahoma, McKinley, New Mexico, and Apache, Arizona have remained persistently distressed over time and have Native American populations of 43 percent, 75 percent, and 77 percent respectively. (Similar trends in terms of Native American populations are found in many other distressed counties in the region).

Again as is the case with other regions, issues of distress are not necessarily entirely related to race. However, in terms of counties either remaining distressed or moving out of distress over time, only two factors race and metropolitan location are statistically significant in explaining these trends. (Based on the related logistic regression model in Appendix C). Thus, the only other factor aside from race that was shown to be associated with counties moving out of distress over time in the region was metropolitan location, with 82 percent of the counties that graduated from distress being either within or proximate to a metropolitan area, compared to 60 percent of the counties that remained distressed. In some respects, then, moving out of distressed status in the Southwest is somewhat less complex than in other regions of the U.S., with issues of race and metropolitan location being the primary factors in relation to this process. As was the case with Central Appalachia and the South, metropolitan location has played an important role in determining the ability of counties in the Southwest to move out of distress over time. And as has been virtually the case in all regions aside from Central Appalachia, issues of race are strongly associated with persistent distress.

The Southwest is somewhat unique in comparison to many of the other regions in this analysis in that current patterns of distress are related to a somewhat broader array of factors than changing patterns of distress in the region. While issues of race and metropolitan location are associated with current distress in the same way as they are associated with persistent distress in the region, unlike patterns assessed in relation to persistent distress and counties graduating from distress, occupational characteristics in the Southwest have an association with current distress in the region. (See previous note to understand the differences between the models that measured current and persistent distress). Specifically examining employment in the region indicates that counties that are currently distressed in the Southwest tend to have lower employment in agriculture than counties that are non-distressed. The Southwest is the one region aside from the U.S.-Mexico Border region where agriculture, particularly lower employment in agriculture, is related to distress. Many of the non-distressed counties in the region, particularly in Texas, have exceptionally high rates of employment in agriculture relative to the rest of the U.S., with the total labor force employed in agriculture often in the range of 20-30 percent in such areas.

(To further elaborate, approximately one-quarter of the counties in the region had rates of employment in agriculture that were above 10 percent, and only 5 of these counties were distressed in 2000. A total of 18 counties had rates of employment above 20 percent, 14 of which were in Texas and 2 each in Oklahoma and New Mexico. Only 1 of these counties was distressed in 2000).

Counties that are currently distressed also tend to have lower employment in manufacturing than their non-distressed counterparts in the region. However, like other regions in the more western areas of the U.S., including the U.S.-Mexico Border, the Rocky Mountain, and the

West regions, the Southwest has some of the lowest employment in manufacturing in the U.S., with the regionwide county-level median being somewhat below the U.S. average. (County-level median employment in manufacturing for the entire region in 2000 was 11.2 percent, compared to a 15 percent county-level median for the U.S. as a whole). Percent employed in professional services is also, on a regionwide basis, slightly lower than the U.S. average. (This difference is not especially large, with the U.S. county level median being 10.4 percent and the county-level median in the Southwest being 10.1 percent). However, unlike all other historically distressed regions included in this analysis, and in contrast to the West and Rocky Mountain regions as well, percent employed in professional services is not statistically significant in its association with economic distress. (Again, see the logistic regression model for distress and non-distress in the region in 2000). Furthermore, though not associated with distress in particular, it is worth noting that there are relatively high rates of employment in mining in some parts of the region, in a large part indicative of the oil and gas industry in the Southwest, especially in areas of Texas.

In general, the economic structure of the Southwest is somewhat different in comparison to other areas of the U.S. At times, various occupational characteristics within the region contribute to conditions of economic distress. In relation to distress in the region, however, issues of occupational structure should perhaps not be overstated. Rather, it is likely best to understand economic distress in the Southwest as being marked by two trends in particular: decreasing distress more generally, but persistent distress in areas with high percentages of Native American populations. Metropolitan location is also related to improving economic conditions in the region, with the general patterns of metropolitan and urban growth being related to migration patterns in the U.S. more generally. As is the case in many other areas of the U.S., rural areas with high percentages of minority populations are the areas that have remained persistently distressed in the Southwest over time.