TRANSITION | Forming the next government
06 April 2008
The Changing U.S. Voter
Recent polls show the changing focus of American voters
By Daniel Gotoff
Recent election polls reveal the concerns, beliefs, and sentiments of U.S. citizens as they prepare to vote for president in 2008. Voters are expressing anxiety over terrorist threats, pessimism on domestic issues, and an interest in government reform. A Democratic pollster concludes that "the U.S. electorate — often reticent about fundamental change — is now more nervous about staying the course." Daniel Gotoff is a partner with Lake Research Partners in Washington, D.C.
As the 2008 election for president approaches, the U.S. electorate finds itself in a unique — and tumultuous — situation. Polls show that the country is engaged in a war that a majority of Americans now oppose. Nearly six years after September 11, 2001, fears of another terrorist attack still permeate the public consciousness. And voters' outlook on a panoply of domestic matters is colored with intensifying concern. This swirl of public discontent takes place against a backdrop of spreading cynicism toward our elected leaders, counterbalanced by a sense that only an institutional power as mighty as the U.S. government is equipped to help the country overcome the challenges it now faces. The shifting political tides over the past several years underscore the point that neither major party is able to boast a governing majority. Furthermore, for the first time in decades neither an incumbent president nor a sitting vice president is running for the highest office in the land.
Amid this turbulence, the U.S. electorate — often reticent about fundamental change — is now more nervous about maintaining the status quo. Currently, polls show only 19 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction — the lowest in a decade. (In July 1997, 44 percent of Americans felt the country was headed in the right direction and just 40 percent felt it was on the wrong track.) Now, fully 68 percent believe the country is off on the wrong track.
Voters' widespread dissatisfaction has created a palpable desire for change in the United States on three key fronts: improved security abroad and at home, shared prosperity on domestic economic matters, and greater accountability on behalf of the government to the people it intends to serve.
Public Anxiety over Terrorism and Security
While the mood of the electorate has shifted dramatically over the last several months, certain political realities will remain true in 2008. Perhaps most prominent, the attacks of September 11, 2001 — and the aftermath of those attacks — still largely define our times and our politics. Voters' instinctive anxieties have meant that each of the three federal elections since September 11 has rested principally, though not solely, on matters of security.
According to exit polls for the last two elections, concerns over terrorism figured prominently. In 2004, 19 percent of voters cited terrorism as their top concern (second only to the economy at 20 percent). Similarly, in 2006, 72 percent of American voters considered terrorism an important issue in their voting decision. And as recently as September 2006, the last time ABC News asked the question, nearly three-quarters of Americans (74 percent) reported being concerned about the possibility that there will be more major terrorist attacks in the United States, including 29 percent who were worried a great deal. While the intensity of these fears has ebbed somewhat in the years since September 11, overall levels of concern have barely budged. In October 2001, less than one month after the attacks, 81 percent of Americans were concerned about the possibility of additional terrorist attacks on U.S. soil (41 percent were very worried).
Since the invasion of Iraq and the growing public opposition to the war, dimensions of security and terrorism have grown more complex — and politically elusive. In October 2002, Americans saw Republicans as better able to handle the issue of terrorism than Democrats by a 23-point margin: 47 percent to 24 percent. By October 2006, however, the ground on this key issue had shifted significantly, with the public preferring Democrats to Republicans, 44 percent to 37 percent.
In 2008, U.S. voters will select the candidate they trust most to secure America's place in the world.
Increased Pessimism on the Domestic Front
While Iraq and terrorism often steal the headlines, voters' concerns on the domestic front are equally intense. In fact, in 2006, exit polls showed concerns over the economy on a par with concerns over national security, Iraq, and ethics. When asked about the importance of various issues in determining their vote for Congress, 82 percent of Americans said the economy was either extremely important (39 percent) or very important (43 percent). By comparison, 74 percent identified corruption and ethics as important (41 percent "extremely"), 67 percent identified Iraq as important (35 percent "extremely"), and 72 percent identified terrorism as important (39 percent "extremely").
Since the 2006 election, voters concerns over the economy have grown more pointed. Two-thirds (66 percent) of Americans rate economic conditions in the country as only fair (43 percent) or poor (23 percent). Just 5 percent rate the economy as excellent and 29 percent rate it as good. Moreover, a 55 percent majority of Americans believe the national economy is getting worse. Another 28 percent say the economy is staying the same — hardly a positive diagnosis — and just 16 percent say the economy is getting better.
Americans' economic concerns have changed over time. Well-paying, secure jobs are still central, but in an environment where U.S. workers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep pace with the rising cost of living, the affordability of health care now ranks as voters' top economic concern. Asked to choose the economic issue they are personally most worried about, a 29 percent plurality of voters pick the rising cost of health care, higher than the number who choose higher taxes (24 percent), a secure retirement (16 percent), losing one's job (11 percent), or expenses like child care and tuition (10 percent). Americans, who describe affordable health care as one of the pillars of the American Dream, now regard surging health care costs as a direct threat to their families' ability to stay in the middle class and achieve that dream. Voters also believe that health care costs are a major impediment to starting one's own business, a significant finding in an entrepreneurial society in which 48 percent aspire to do just that.
Additionally, as globalization forces U.S. workers to compete against low-wage workers in countries that may not protect basic rights, they have become quite skeptical about its benefits. Fully 65 percent of Americans view increased trade between the United States and other countries as mostly hurting U.S. workers. And underscoring a shift in attitudes from the end of the last decade, when a 56 percent majority saw increased trade as mostly helping U.S. companies, fully half of Americans (50 percent) now view trade as mostly hurting U.S. companies.
More fundamentally, there is a growing sense among the public that the middle class is no longer sharing in the nation's prosperity, but actually losing ground while an elite few reap gargantuan profits. The exit polls speak to this erosion of voters' faith in the American Dream in the 21st century. Fully half of voters said they had just enough to get by and another 17 percent said they were falling behind. Less than one-third of voters (31 percent) said they were getting ahead financially. Even more startling is the extent to which Americans have grown pessimistic in their outlook for their children's future. A 40 percent plurality said they expected life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, 28 percent said about the same, and just 30 percent expected life for the next generation of Americans to be better than life today. In 2008, American voters will select the candidate they trust most to ensure the promise of the American Dream — namely, shared economic prosperity and the opportunity for workers to provide better opportunities for their children.
The Increasing Desire for Change and Accountability
The gathering storm of public anxiety on issues both foreign and domestic is feeding an appetite for fundamental reform of the U.S. government. The 2006 election was in many ways a public cry for greater accountability. Three-quarters of voters identified corruption and ethics as important to their vote in Congress, and with considerable intensity (41 percent "extremely important").
While the Iraq war may help explain the current president's low job approval ratings, it does not explain why the new Congress, controlled by the opposition party, is also held in such poor esteem by the voters. President Bush's job approval rating sits at just 31 percent, though Congress' job approval rating — at 21 percent — is even more critical. In short, the public is demanding change and holding all elected leaders accountable for effecting that change. To wit, a 56 percent majority of Americans now agree that "the federal government needs to be transformed — that is, undergo major and fundamental changes." Just 34 percent believe "the federal government needs to undergo small changes but does not need to be transformed," and only 3 percent believe "the federal government does not need to undergo any changes."
And despite reduced trust in government, more than half of Americans want an increased role for the institution in addressing the challenges facing the country. Fifty-two percent agree that "government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people," compared to just 40 percent who believe that "government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals." It is worth noting that these numbers are virtually the mirror opposite of the sentiment recorded nearly a decade ago (41 percent "government should do more" to 51 percent "government is doing too much").
In conclusion, the U.S. voter is indeed changing — becoming more cynical, more anxious, and less secure. At the same time, the U.S. voter remains guardedly hopeful about the future. Voters are seeking a leader who has the demonstrated ability to recognize and resolve the challenges facing the United States in the 21st century and, in so doing, secure the United States' place in the world. Countering this inclination toward an experienced, steady hand is a strong desire for a leader who represents the change that an overwhelming majority of Americans now demand. The candidate who can convincingly reconcile these seemingly contradictory dimensions of leadership is the candidate who will win the presidency in 2008 — and with it the ability to transform the nation, both in the eyes of U.S. citizens and, just as important, in the eyes of the world. n
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.
