DIVERSITY | Offering a place for everyone
15 August 2008
U.S. Minorities Will Be the Majority by 2042, Census Bureau Says
Report sees quicker growth, more diversity; Hispanics fastest-growing group
Washington -- By the middle of the century, the population of the United States will be larger and more racially and ethnically diverse than earlier projections suggested, with much of the increase due to immigration.
By 2042, minorities, collectively, are projected to make up more than 50 percent of the U.S. population, the Census Bureau said August 14.
By 2050, minorities -- those who identify themselves as Hispanic, black, Asian, American Indian, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander or mixed race -- will account for 54 percent of the U.S. population, which is projected to total 439 million that year. (The nation’s population is currently around 305 million, and about 34 percent identify themselves as a member of a racial or ethnic minority.)
Among the nation’s children, the trend is even more pronounced: by 2023, more than half will belong to a minority racial or ethnic group, the Census Bureau said. By 2050, this will jump to 62 percent (compared to 44 percent today).
The Census Bureau predicts a faster-growing and more diverse population than it did previously. In 2000, the bureau projected a population of around 404 million for the year 2050, with minorities accounting for 47 percent. In 2004, the projection jumped to around 420 million and almost 50 percent minorities.
Non-Hispanic whites are currently 66 percent of the U.S. population and are projected to be 46 percent in 2050. Today non-Hispanic whites are in the minority in four states -- Hawaii, New Mexico, California and Texas -- and the District of Columbia (Washington, the nation’s capital). (See “U.S. Minority Population Continues to Grow.”)
Hispanics are the fastest-growing minority group, the Census Bureau said. The Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from almost 47 million to 133 million, during the 2008-2050 period, and will jump from 15 percent to 30 percent of the population.
Immigration is playing a leading role in both the growth and changing composition of the U.S. population, points out the Pew Research Center. It finds that immigrants and their descendants will account for 82 percent of the projected population increase from 2005 to 2050.
Nearly 20 percent of Americans will be foreign born in 2050, compared with 12 percent in 2005, the center projects. But it also cautions that population projections “can be affected by changes in behavior, by new immigration policies, or by other events.”
Asians are the third largest minority group -- and the second fastest-growing group -- in the United States, according to the August 14 Census Bureau report, which predicts that Asians will increase from 5 percent of the U.S. population in 2008 to 9 percent by 2050.
The black population is projected to rise from 14 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2050, while American Indians and Alaska Natives are projected to increase from 1.6 percent to 2 percent.
Not only will the nation be more racially and ethnically diverse at midcentury, it also will be older, the Census Bureau says. One in five people will be 65 and older by 2050 as that age group more than doubles. By 2050, there will be 19 million people age 85 and older, more than three times today’s number.
Meanwhile, the percentage of the population in the “working ages” of 18 to 64 is projected to fall from 63 percent to 57 percent between 2008 and 2050, and over half (55 percent) will be minorities.
The 2000 census was the first in which people could identify themselves as belonging to two or more races. By 2050, the number of people classified as mixed race is projected to more than triple, from 5.2 million to 16.2 million.
More information on the Census Bureau report is available on the bureau’s Web site.
Also see the eJournal Immigrants Joining the Mainstream and Diversity.
