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03 June 2008
Election Experts Discuss U.S. Presidential Race
Ask America webchat transcript, June 3
U.S. Department of State election experts Michelle Austein and George Burkes discuss the latest events in the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaign in a June 3 Ask America webchat.
Following is the transcript:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
Ask America Webchat Transcript
Ask America.gov: Elections 08
Guest: Michelle Austein & George Burkes
Date: June 3, 2008
Time: 09:00 EDT (1300 GMT)
Webchat Moderator: Welcome to our webchat! We are taking your questions now. Please note, the webchat will take place on June 3. If you have more than one question, please submit each one separately. We will be getting started shortly.
Michelle Austein: Hello everyone and welcome to our third U.S. Elections Web chat. It has been a busy month since we last met, and there are a lot of exciting moments in store this coming month for the presidential campaigns. Most notably, the Democratic primaries will finally wrap up tonight with the last two contests in South Dakota and Montana.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama is favored to win both of those primaries, but neither have many delegates at stake. Therefore neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to lock up the nomination tonight. Americans will be watching closely these next few days to see if enough superdelelegates – unpledged party leaders – will throw their support to Obama and pressure New York Senator Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. Americans will also be paying increased attention to Republican candidate John McCain, as he gets ready to take on the Democratic nominee.
Here are some useful articles to get you up to speed:
• Path to The Presidential Nomination
• Democrats Reach Compromise Plan on Michigan and Florida
George Burkes and myself look forward to answering your questions!
Question [abdullahi E. abubakar]: Is there any possibility that they (Clinton & Obama) recouncil after primaries?
Answer [Michelle Austein]: While it may seem that Clinton and Obama have had a bitter and negative campaign, this contest actually pales in comparison to some past elections, in fact, some of the United States' first presidential elections were among the nastiest. One thing that is great about the American political system is that the losers often help campaign for the winner. We've seen that in the Republican race as John McCain's former opponents have endorsed him, and we expect to see the same in the Democratic contest.
Q [IRC Addis Ababa 3]: The Democratic Party (elders) can override the primary results. How democratic is this?
A [Michelle Austein]: That is a great question. The system of allowing superdelegates – unpledged party leaders – cast their own vote as they choose for the nominee has received a lot of criticism this election season. Some Americans argue that it is up to the people to decide their nominee and the superdelegates should follow the will of the people. But others point out that it is important to ask our party leaders what they think. After all, these leaders have worked with the candidates and know them personally and some believe this makes them better informed to make a decision on who would be a better president.
By the way, Republicans have some unpledged delegates as well, just not as many as the Democrats. Here is a good article about superdelegates, “Superdelegates” May Decide Democratic Nominee.
Webchat Moderator: If you are just joining us, welcome! We do see your questions coming in. Thank you.
Q [vokky]: I understand that a compromise has been reached to hold the Michigan and Florida primaries that were disqualified. If the primaries are held, and if Clinton wins both states do you think her victory can halt Obama in anyway?
A [Michelle Austein]: There will be no new primaries held in Michigan and Florida, though a compromise has been reached to allow their delegates to participate in the convention, by allowing each delegate to cast a half a vote. In Florida, each candidate will receive an amount of delegates based on a percentage of the vote they earned in the state's January 29 primary. The exact formula for awarding the delegates is particularly complex in Michigan, where Barack Obama's name was not on the ballot. This article, Democrats Reach Compromise Plan for Michigan, Florida Delegates explains the scenario in more detail.
So what this means is that with Michigan and Florida's delegates counted, Clinton will earn an additional 87 delegates, and Obama 63. But that still leaves her trailing Obama.
Webchat Moderator: Welcome to those of you just joining us! Our speakers are reviewing and answering your many questions.
Learn about our other upcoming webchats at: http://www.america.gov/multimedia/askamerica.html.
Q [Nick]: How and when will Hillary [Clinton] quit the nomination?
A [Michelle Austein]: That is an excellent question, and one many Americans are paying a lot of attention to. Keep in mind, superdelegates are not pledged and can choose to change their intentions at any time until the convention. Neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to secure them the nomination. So if Clinton chooses to stay in the contest until the convention that is her right. She can try to convince superdelegates that she is the best candidate to beat John McCain. All eyes will be on Clinton tonight as she speaks in New York, her home state, to see if she indicates what her intentions are. While there are rumors that her campaign is near its end, there are also indications from her staff that she will continue to fight the nomination, so no one is really certain. However, most political experts believe this contest will be over before the Democratic National Convention in August. Here is an article on the Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Seen Ending by July 4.
Q [baghashwa]: Somalia waiting America to return peace in, We Believe that all terrorists are now around Somalia. Please come back to Somalia we need you!!
A [Michelle Austein]: Thanks for the kind message. We have not heard the candidates speak much about Somalia specifically, but fighting terrorism is a priority for each of the presidential candidates, as it is an issue of key concern for the American people. While the candidates may not discuss Somalia much on the campaign trail, they likely have foreign policy advisors who will help the candidates learn a lot about the country.
Q [IRC Addis Ababa 3]: Can the 2008 elections be considered as the must contested (so far) ever?
A [Michelle Austein]: That's a great question, and one that is probably a matter of opinion. While this has been a unique election for many, many reasons, we do not believe it is necessarily the most contested race. U.S. Elections have had a long, colorful history. This article Character Attacks Heat Up U.S. Presidential Campaign has a great story about the 1828 presidential election. And while this primary has been contested, it is because the Democratic Party is truly divided over who would make the best nominee.
This article Democratic Race Could Continue for Weeks or Months, Experts Say does a good job explaining the close Democratic race. There have been many extremely close races, both in the primaries and general election, and we don't have to look too far back (Bush vs. Gore in 2000) to realize that contested elections are a frequent occurrence in American politics.
Q [IRC Addis Ababa 3]: Why hasn’t a third party emerged? Can we state that a higher stage of democracy necessarily means a two party system?
A [Michelle Austein]: We don't think it is the case that a two party system is part of a higher stage of democracy. Multi-party systems work great in many democratic countries. The United States actually has dozens of political parties, but the Republicans and Democrats have dominated presidential politics for more than 150 years. Here is an article that explains their history: http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2007/January/20070109140913HMnietsua0.1988794.html. There are a lot of challenges for a third-party candidate to win the presidency, but there is evidence that third parties can have a major impact on election outcomes. For example, a third-party candidate might draw votes more votes away from the candidate of the party more closely aligned with to the position of the third-party candidate, thus enabling the other party to win the election – often without receiving a majority of the vote.
Third party candidates often emerge when Americans are unhappy with both mainstream candidates, or if both candidates are not addressing an issue that a third party candidate feels he or she can tackle. In 2008, this has not been the case. It seems Democrats like both of their potential nominees, and Republicans, even many of those who initially did not support McCain will support him. Both parties seem to be discussing a wide range of issues. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg seemed to have the best chance of being a viable third-party candidate this election season, but he decided not to enter the race. Here is an article about that: http://www.america.gov/st/elections08-english/2008/February/20080229181816amnietsua0.1569635.html.
However, we do have some third-party candidates running, including former Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, and a former Congressman, Bob Barr, who will run as a Libertarian.
Q [CairoIRC]: Could you please explain in brief the work of the Electoral college comparing with what we have in Egypt?
A [Michelle Austein]: We are not that familiar with Egypt's political system, but we can provide some great resources about the Electoral College. According to the Constitution, presidents are elected by the Electoral College, composed of electors from each state who represent the will of their state’s voters. Each state’s group of electors is equal in number to its Congressional representation. Typically all of a state’s electors cast their votes for the candidate who won a plurality of votes in their state. A candidate must receive at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win.
Here is a useful summary on this: http://www.america.gov/st/pubs-english/2007/October/20071010122843hmnietsua0.9602167.html.
Some Americans (and international readers as well!) wonder if the Electoral College is still the best way to select a president. Here is an article Has the Electoral College Outlived Its Usefulness which examines the plusses and minuses of using such a system.
This article explains how the Electoral College affects candidates' campaign strategies. It affects it in a big, big way.
We encourage you to bookmark our U.S. Elections web page. As the election nears, we will be providing a great wealth of information about the Electoral College, and the important states that candidates will be spending their time campaigning in.
Q [vokky]: American economy is not as stable as it used to because of the Iraqi war, hence, do you think American needs another president that supports the war?
A [Michelle Austein]: That's a great question, and one that American voters will be considering as they pick both their president and Congressional representatives. While the economy is now the dominate campaign issue, the war is still very much on voters minds. Here is a quick summary of what the candidates have to say about Iraq: http://uspolitics.america.gov/uspolitics/elections/issues.html#iraq.
America.gov is also following some key Congressional races through out the country. You'll see on this page that the war is an important topic on the local campaign trails as well: http://uspolitics.america.gov/uspolitics/elections/stateandlocal.html.
Q [vokky]: The party rule is that if any one of the two candidates cannot clinch the nomination with an outright win, the superdelegates will decide who to give the nomination to. Thus do you think with Obama’s standing as the favorite in terms of polls, the delegates will give him the nomination?
A [Michelle Austein]: Most political experts do believe the superdelegates will select Obama, as he will have the most delegates and have won the most primaries and caucuses when the primaries conclude tonight.
Q [Kuba]: Is it true U.S. women will not vote Obama because they are angry about Clinton? Will they vote for McCain or third party...protest vote?
A [Michelle Austein]: Clinton has received a large amount of support from women voters, particularly from white women and older women. While it is possible some Clinton supporters will decide to vote for McCain or a third-party candidate, political experts expect most to ultimately support Obama. Recent polls indicate that in an Obama-McCain contest, Obama would receive significantly more of the female vote.
Q [vokky]: Most Americans are saying Obama is inexperienced, and he makes good speech and cannot really deliver, thus they prefer Clinton who has experience. My question is, in what way is Clinton experienced when she was just a first lady and not the president?
A [Michelle Austein]: That's a good question. Clinton does talk about her experience traveling as First Lady helping her gain foreign policy expertise. But also keep in mind that Clinton has been a Senator representing New York since 2000, and serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which deals with many decisions regarding the U.S. military. She easily won her Senate re-election in 2006, indicating her state is happy with the work she does.
Q [Jimmy]: Will Senator Obama lose the final race with Mccain because of his color?
A [Michelle Austein]: Many have asked this question. Polls indicate that typically more than 90 percent of Americans are willing to vote for an African American president. That's up a lot from just a few decades ago. We think most Americans believe race will not play a factor in selecting a president, but it is an issue political experts are researching. Here is an article examining this: http://www.america.gov/st/elections08-english/2008/January/200801181212531xeneerg0.8178675.html.
Q [QIRC Addis Ababa 3]: Why has money become so critical to winning the ‘White House?
A [Michelle Austein]: That's a great observation – it takes a lot of money to run for president. We've seen record amounts of money raised by the presidential candidates this election season, especially by Barack Obama who has raised about $272 million. Candidates need to campaign across a large country, which means they have to pay for television ads, radio ads, mailings, campaign signs, campaign offices, Web sites, flights across the country, and much, much more. Money can provide a sizable advantage, as advertisements can help make a candidate's positions well known. However, the candidate with the most money does not always win. The American political system has an interesting way of providing funds for our presidential candidates, if they choose to use them. Here is a good article explaining this: http://www.america.gov/st/elections08-english/2008/April/20080421130233rotcartnoc0.845318.html.
Thank you everyone for participating in our Web chat. We saw many intelligent questions today, and we apologize if we did not get to yours. Join us for our next chat on July 1 at 9 a.m. In the meantime, keep checking America.gov's U.S. elections Web site for the latest updates.
Webchat Moderator: We wish to thank Michelle Austein and George Burkes for joining us today. The webchat is now closed. A full transcript of today's webchat will be published (usually within one business day) to our Ask America homepage. (Guests are chosen for their expertise and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Department of State.)
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