SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is projected up 2 million tons to 98.4 million, the highest level in ten years. Asian imports have rebounded to nearly the level reached in the mid-nineties. Global production is down 19 million tons compared to 1998/99 due mainly to reductions in the Chinese and U.S. corn crops and barley shortfalls in the Middle East. Global consumption is up 8 million tons fueled mainly by soaring U.S. domestic consumption and increasing Asian demand. Ending stocks are down 8 million tons due primarily to a reduction in Chinese and U.S. corn stocks, which make up nearly 60% of all coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is forecast up 1.6 million tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. Increased exports from China and Argentina are expected to reduce U.S. exports by 3.9 million tons from 1998/99. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as mid-eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record 9.2 million tons of barley.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Australia barley exports up 200,000 tons due to increased world demand and larger exportable supplies as feed use switches to low-quality wheat.

• Ukraine rye up 90,000 tons to 100,000 because of increased demand due to regional shortages.

Selected Importers

• Peru corn imports down 200,000 tons to 1 million due to a larger expected crop.

• U.S. barley up 100,000 tons to 700,000 tons because of a strong import pace to date.

• Japan barley up 200,000 tons to 1.6 million due to a stronger than expected previous year and strong pace to date.

• China barley down 100,000 tons to 2.3 million because of a slow down in import demand for malting barley.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003