Highway Trust Fund
Cash Balances
Estimating Cash Balances
Beginning Year Cash Balance
+ Receipts
-Outlays
__________________________
= End of Year Cash Balance
Factors in Determining the Cash Balance
- Estimated obligations are based on the obligation limitations established
by SAFETEA-LU
- Outlays are derived from the estimated obligations
- Estimated receipts are calculated by the Department of Treasury
Highway Account of the Highway Trust Fund
- The Highway Account balance is calculated based upon estimated outlays from:
- The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
- The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
- The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)
Mass Transit Account of the Highway Trust Fund
- The Mass Transit Account balance is calculated based upon outlays from
the:
- Federal Transit Administration (FTA)
Estimated Cash Balances: Highway Account of the HTF
Estimated Cash Balances: Mass Transit Account of the HTF
Why are the Cash Balances Expected to Decline?
- We are spending more than we take in:
- Between 2001-2004, outlays exceeded receipts by $2-4 billion each
year
- Estimated outlays for FY 2007 - FY 2009 exceed estimated receipts
by more than $3 billion each year.
- FY 2005 and FY 2006 outlays are level with receipts
- The funding levels set by SAFETEA-LU were set with the intention
of "spending down"the balance in the Highway Account.
Negative Balances
- A negative balance reflects the gap between estimated future
spending and estimated future receipts.
- A sustained negative balance in our estimates reflects what will
happen if future spending is continued at SAFETEA-LU levels.
- This gap indicates the timeframe during which a solution needs
to be identified
Would all spending stop if the Highway Trust Fund ran out of cash?
- No. Spending on programs would continue as new receipts are received.
- New receipts would continue to be available to cover current obligations.
How Accurate is this Estimate?
What we know:
- Highway Trust Fund cash balances will go negative within the next
few years under current conditions.
- We do not expect that out-year highway spending could be maintained
at SAFETEA-LU levels, given predicted revenue trends.
- The declining trend in the Mass Transit Account indicates that it
is at risk as well.
What is less certain:
- When this will happen.
- Fluctuations in revenues and/or spending patterns will impact timing.
- Estimates can vary from actual results by more than $1 billion.
